2019 Giro d'Italia, Stage-by-Stage Analysis

[rick james]

with a "easy first 2 weeks, Thomas should honestly think about going

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Damn, I was really looking forward to Bernal's Giro.
And even worse, TdF will be even more of a borefest...

Oh gosh, I don't even want to think about it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Also news of today: Egan Bernal out of Giro d’Italia after collarbone break
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/egan-bernal-out-of-giro-ditalia-after-collarbone-break/

Bernal out of the Giro. I'm thinking Geraint will not be a replacement? He does seem to be in good form though.

Are you trying to ruin the Giro?
Horrible news. He was one of the four that I had as contenders. Now three. It might change the dynamics a bit of not having team Ineos bossing around in the mountains.

Still hope for a great Giro but it won't be the same for me without Bernal.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Who (if anyone) will ride GC for Ineos now?

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Who (if anyone) will ride GC for Ineos now?

Froome could go for the double again.

 

[Gigs_98]

Fu*k

 

[Valv.Piti]

Fu*k

Huuuuuge implications for this race and the reason of the season. It just flat out SUCKS. There was so much opportunity here for some epic showdowns in the hardest mountains in the world, Bernal has the character and power to completely boss mountains like San Carlo and Mortirolo.

 

[Scarponi]

Fu*k

Huuuuuge implications for this race and the reason of the season. It just flat out SUCKS. There was so much opportunity here for some epic showdowns in the hardest mountains in the world, Bernal has the character and power to completely boss mountains like San Carlo and Mortirolo.

Bernal and Nibali trying to take 2 minutes back at the bottom of the Mortirolo would have been epic

 

[Pantani_lives]

Thanks for the extensive preview, Eshnar.

With three ITTs and no tough MTFs Dumoulin has a clear advantage. The two best chances for climbers to create big gaps are stage 14 over the San Carlo (Saturday 25th) and stage 16 over Gavia and Mortirolo (Tuesday 28th). Simon Yates and Roglic have the potential for agressive action. Astana has the strongest GC team, so a group effort to take time for MA Lopez is also possible.

*****Dumoulin, S. Yates
****Roglic, MA Lopez
***Landa, Nibali
**Zakarin, Majka, Bilbao, Carapaz
*Chaves, TG Hart, Pozzovivo, Jungels, Mollema

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Thanks for the extensive preview, Eshnar.

With three ITTs and no tough MTFs Dumoulin has a clear advantage. The two best chances for climbers to create big gaps are stage 14 over the San Carlo (Saturday 25th) and stage 16 over Gavia and Mortirolo (Tuesday 28th). Simon Yates and Roglic have the potential for agressive action. Astana has the strongest GC team, so a group effort to take time for MA Lopez is also possible.

*****Dumoulin, S. Yates
****Roglic, MA Lopez
***Landa, Nibali
**Zakarin, Majka, Bilbao, Carapaz
*Chaves, TG Hart, Pozzovivo, Jungels, Mollema

I really don't see how MAL is a bigger favorite than Nibali. Nothing has ever suggested to me that peak MAL is a better climber than peak Nibali while MAL way too often loses time on flat or hilly stages and is a worse time trialist. Also, Nibali is imo much more likely to go all in for the win than MAL.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Very disappointing about Bernal. He was definitely an X factor in the race.

I see MAL being able to take bigger chunks of time back than Nibs, but he will likely have to as well.

I think the main battle is between Dumo, Rog and Yates though.

 

[Robert5091]

Stage 21's ITT is 17 km according to the Giro website, but 15.6 km according to your post and Cycling News preview. Is 17 km correct?

 

[Eshnar]

Re:

Stage 21's ITT is 17 km according to the Giro website, but 15.6 km according to your post and Cycling News preview. Is 17 km correct?

It's 17, I just forgot to update it when they changed it. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[mikii4567]

Is it just me, or is the stage 4 finish shown terribly on the final kms profile? It looks way steeper (this is 300m before the line)

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@41.8085667,12.6762021,3a,75y,143.91h,81.65t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1seG4lnQeBin2xBeMmceVWZA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

 

[yaco]

The Yates, Nibali, Lopez type riders will be chasing tail after the first two ITT's.

 

[D. Abdoujaparov]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and the mountains classification for each stage?

 

[D. Abdoujaparov]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and mountains classification for each stage?

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Is it just me, or is the stage 4 finish shown terribly on the final kms profile? It looks way steeper (this is 300m before the line)

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@41.8085667,12.6762021,3a,75y,143.91h,81.65t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1seG4lnQeBin2xBeMmceVWZA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

Exactly my thoughts when I have seen it the first time.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Thanks for the extensive preview, Eshnar.

With three ITTs and no tough MTFs Dumoulin has a clear advantage. The two best chances for climbers to create big gaps are stage 14 over the San Carlo (Saturday 25th) and stage 16 over Gavia and Mortirolo (Tuesday 28th). Simon Yates and Roglic have the potential for agressive action. Astana has the strongest GC team, so a group effort to take time for MA Lopez is also possible.

*****Dumoulin, S. Yates
****Roglic, MA Lopez
***Landa, Nibali
**Zakarin, Majka, Bilbao, Carapaz
*Chaves, TG Hart, Pozzovivo, Jungels, Mollema

I would put Roglic with 5 stars as well. Bernal was there too. There were 4 favorites, now there are three. After that with four stars and an outside change if things fall their way are: Landa, Lopez and Nibali.

As for the comment about Nibali and Lopez, the main difference now is age. One is getting older and their performances are not what they used to be and the other one is improving. We cannot compare these two based on history only because there is a big difference. We have to go on actual form as well. But to me they have equally chance.

 

[Robert5091]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and mountains classification for each stage?

Have a look here (scroll down to the different jersey competitions - are after the stage guide)
http://inrng.com/2019/05/giro-italia-2019-guide/

The TV handbook at https://static2.giroditalia.it/wp-c...IRO_DITALIA_TV_ROADBOOK_2019_INGL_low_res.pdf has lots of info too & in English.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

I would put Roglic with 5 stars as well. Bernal was there too. There were 4 favorites, now there are three. After that with four stars and an outside change if things fall their way are: Landa, Lopez and Nibali.

As for the comment about Nibali and Lopez, the main difference now is age. One is getting older and their performances are not what they used to be and the other one is improving. We cannot compare these two based on history only because there is a big difference. We have to go on actual form as well. But to me they have equally chance.

Yes, after today Roglic went up. I didn't think he would win that time trial against Campenaerts, Martin etc. If he does well at the time trials winning the Giro becomes more plausible.

MA Lopez has the advantage of a strong team. After dominating many one week races I wonder what Astana can do in the GTs.

 

[D. Abdoujaparov]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and mountains classification for each stage?

Have a look here (scroll down to the different jersey competitions - are after the stage guide)
http://inrng.com/2019/05/giro-italia-2019-guide/

The TV handbook at https://static2.giroditalia.it/wp-c...IRO_DITALIA_TV_ROADBOOK_2019_INGL_low_res.pdf has lots of info too & in English.

Thank you very much. It was exactly what I was looking for

 

[Rollthedice]

***** are only for Froome so next:
**** Dumoulin
*** Nibali, Yates
** Roglic
* MAL, Landa

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

***** are only for Froome so next:
**** Dumoulin
*** Nibali, Yates
** Roglic
* MAL, Landa

The coincidence of a poster with a Nibali profile picture giving Nibali a better chance to win the Giro than Roglic

Of course you could still be right, if recent history that says that you cannot be too strong in Romandie is any guide. Without any crashes, Roglic should be at least two minutes ahead of Nibali entering week three, so it's a question of having the endurance in week 3, which we know Nibali has. Perhaps on this basis you could argue that NIbali has a better chance of finishing ahead of Roglic head to head, but Roglic's ceiling is surely higher than Nibali's now, so I think that if Dumoulin rides to 2018 standards, and Yates rides to 2018 first 16 stages standards, then Nibali is unlikely to defeat them, whereas Roglic very well could.

 

[sir fly]

Does anyone know where to find the rules for the points and mountains classification for each stage?

Have a look here (scroll down to the different jersey competitions - are after the stage guide)
http://inrng.com/2019/05/giro-italia-2019-guide/

The TV handbook at https://static2.giroditalia.it/wp-c...IRO_DITALIA_TV_ROADBOOK_2019_INGL_low_res.pdf has lots of info too & in English.

That's the missing annexe in Eshnar's ™ analysis.
More than the route itself, the challenge will be peaking for the second half and decisive third week.
Many have expressed concerns about Roglič's outstanding form. Nibali's also already very good, which tells me they're probably following the similar buildup... Ready to clock a good time in the opening tt, easing off, and then the proper peak from the San Marino tt onwards.
Others might have opted for gradual (unimodal) buildup, relying on their specialities or accepting the fact they'll lose some time in the opening tt, expecting a lot to happen during the three weeks.
We'll see who got it right.