2019 Giro First Rest Day Discussion

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.

I don't think there is a stronger climber in this race than Nibali on a 200km stage, in the second part of the Giro, when he is in form, with at least 2 cat. 1 climbs. There are 3 such stages left and he is on form.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.

You could very well be true, and the question besides race tactics may be: is Roglic as good a climber as Dumoulin? If the answer is yes, looking back at the Zonc stage last year, even a brutal MTF won't do much to erase Roglic's advantage. It may actually come down to being the freshest rider, not the best at any exercise.

He's mostly a different climber compared to Dumoulin. He's a lot more explosive and anaerobically gifted. Dumoulin got dropped at some point in basically every stage last year but always got back and limited the damage. Roglic is much more likely to fly away and then be brought back cause he can't sustain the effort. I'd think Roglic is probably better at short and punchy mountain stages while Dumoulin is better at the huge and long mountain stages.

Problem is we still have had no mountains and we still don't know where anyone is at. I honestly think Roglic needs to be better than he was in the Tour last year and I'm not sure he can be.

 

[Salvarani]

I see Roglic losing if he gets tactically outplayed by the others and his team is not strong enough to help him in the super hard stages in the 3rd week. Even though someone/another team might directly/indirectly help him if they are also caught behind.

Or he loses this being dropped and running out of steam. Who knows.

He also had one crash. Something like that could happen again, even though no one should be wishing for that scenario.

At least a few knows they gonna have to make the stages really hard to have a chance at a podium place. Hopefully they have the legs and can make the second half of this race really entertaining.

Thats all I had on my mind.

 

[Tonton]

Fair enough. Now it would be a mistake to underestimate Roglic, which brings '17 back to mind. Hoping that he will crack, et caetera, et caetera. He looks to be in the form of his life, much better than at the Tour. Is he? In recent weeks, I've become a believer.

 

[movingtarget]

Dumoulin is a diesel climber Roglic isn't. If Yates climbing form is off it can only help Roglic. Maybe he started the TT too fast but he said he had nothing on the climb. I think Roglic will need to have a bad day to lose it and usually his bad days are not real bad at least lately. Maybe the cold got to some of the smaller climbers as well. Mollema had no problems, being a bigger build. I still think Roglic is not a sure thing at the moment. Third week as usual tells the tale as Yates knows all too well. Zakarin has been disappointing. I thought the TT was a good course for him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Nibs.

Those two next stages tho................

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Depends on how much help Roglic will have in the mountains from Tolhoek, Kuss & Bouwman. If he gets isolated early in the mountains, it won't be easy. But on the other hand, it's difficult to see him lose a lot of time on this form. And there is still an ITT waiting.

If not Roglic, then Nibali.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.

I don't think there is a stronger climber in this race than Nibali on a 200km stage, in the second part of the Giro, when he is in form, with at least 2 cat. 1 climbs. There are 3 such stages left and he is on form.

Old Nibali yes, from 2013, 2014 or even 2016. But this is 2019, let's see, I have a feeling he's not that strong anymore.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.

You could very well be true, and the question besides race tactics may be: is Roglic as good a climber as Dumoulin? If the answer is yes, looking back at the Zonc stage last year, even a brutal MTF won't do much to erase Roglic's advantage. It may actually come down to being the freshest rider, not the best at any exercise.

Yeah, but look how Dumoulin ended on Finestre, and we have even harder stage with Gavia and Mortirolo combo. If some of the climbers (Nibali, Yates, Lopez, Landa) puts the hammer there, and they will believe me, a small weakness could end up losing a minutes there, especially because he hasn't got a strong team.
Don't get me wrong, Roglic is the top dog right now, no doubt about that, but I'm just saying this race is far from over, and no one of the top favorites is out of contention, except obviously Dumoulin.

 

[klintE]

Only 2 votes for Mollema? Where the f*** is famous "dutch hype"?

I wrote this earlier on; top 3 from stage 1 will b top 3 overall
Nothing changed, except Tom Di isn't racing anymore so its even more certain
Roglić rather not gonna crack but he's significantly less durable in a long run than Nibali likes.
Simon maybe doesn't look perfectly well now but he will blow this race on stage 20 performing Froome/Landis style 80k attack. For sure.

Majka should go for stages and shirt; he didn't acquire any Giro stage in his life and this year a couple of 3rd week stg suit him very well. Too bad it's not very hot out there.

 

[bambino]

Re:

I see no evidence of Roglic ever losing a lot of time in the mountains when going for GC which is why I make him overwhelming favourite

You could have also said you haven't seen any evidence to any direction of Roglic in such mountain test in GC before. Because last year Tour was childs play compared to what is ahead of him now. Aple D'Huez would be something like 4th or 5th hardest climg I guess in this Giro. We just don't know how he will manage. He looks strong right now tough.

 

[Bolder]

Re:

Depends on how much help Roglic will have in the mountains from Tolhoek, Kuss & Bouwman. If he gets isolated early in the mountains, it won't be easy. But on the other hand, it's difficult to see him lose a lot of time on this form. And there is still an ITT waiting.

If not Roglic, then Nibali.

^^I agree with both points. I expect he'll gain another 1' in the ITT, maybe even more.

We talk alot about "chaos" and "carnage" but I think the San Marino ITT was a pretty good indicator of who has climbing legs right now and who doesn't. That was pretty much an MTF in microcosm.

I'm still going with my original pick, which is Roglic if I had to put money on it. But I really want Nibali to win.

 

[Oude Geuze]

I think people are underestimating the gaps here, it’s Nibali vs Roglic bar any accidents. I’m rooting for both about equally, but looking forward to the fight! Yates is out, not even in the extreme form of last year did he put minutes into top contenders in one stage.

 

[Squire]

Re:

I think people are underestimating the gaps here, it’s Nibali vs Roglic bar any accidents. I’m rooting for both about equally, but looking forward to the fight! Yates is out, not even in the extreme form of last year did he put minutes into top contenders in one stage.

I agree. The only one you can remotely imagine being capable of bringing back minutes in the mountains is Lopez (and perhaps the mythical version of Landa that we haven't really seen), and even that is hard to see happening now.

That is, of course, assuming Roglic (and Nibali) doesn't crack big time. Which, considering it's the Giro after all, is quite possible.

 

[klintE]

You guys need to look at the gaps from last year. 3rd Lopez 5 minutes back; 5th Pozzo 8 minutes back.
Comparatively to the gaps on the stage 18.

 

[Brullnux]

I wouldn't be so sure - we've seen plenty of cases at the giro in which multi-mountain stages create very big gaps: 2016 was crazy from the corvara stage (where previous favourite valverde lost three minutes) to the end, while last year of course we had sestriere. There are three, maybe four stages where genuinely big gaps are possible, and I'm talking about gaps in the minutes.

Similarly, everyone is treating a TT on stage 21 after a ridiculously hard ten days or so like if it were a normal one. By that point, it's more of a matter of fatigue: in 2017, Dumoulin lost to van emden and put less than a minute on Nibali in a 30k pan flat time trial. Last year, we saw roglic struggle a bit on the final tt. I don't expect Rogli to gain much more than 30s on that TT.

 

[Arked]

Re: Re:

Strongest climber will win this bike race, and I have a feeling it won't be Roglic nor Nibali, no matter how big time gaps are atm.

You could very well be true, and the question besides race tactics may be: is Roglic as good a climber as Dumoulin? If the answer is yes, looking back at the Zonc stage last year, even a brutal MTF won't do much to erase Roglic's advantage. It may actually come down to being the freshest rider, not the best at any exercise.

He's mostly a different climber compared to Dumoulin. He's a lot more explosive and anaerobically gifted. Dumoulin got dropped at some point in basically every stage last year but always got back and limited the damage. Roglic is much more likely to fly away and then be brought back cause he can't sustain the effort. I'd think Roglic is probably better at short and punchy mountain stages while Dumoulin is better at the huge and long mountain stages.

Problem is we still have had no mountains and we still don't know where anyone is at. I honestly think Roglic needs to be better than he was in the Tour last year and I'm not sure he can be.

You're mostly right. But if you are world class TT specialist at 65kg, and Roglic is, then you are by default at least very good on long climbs. We will see how he will deal with recovery between hard mountain stages stacked very close together. It'll be more difficult than last years Tour.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

I wouldn't be so sure - we've seen plenty of cases at the giro in which multi-mountain stages create very big gaps: 2016 was crazy from the corvara stage (where previous favourite valverde lost three minutes) to the end, while last year of course we had sestriere. There are three, maybe four stages where genuinely big gaps are possible, and I'm talking about gaps in the minutes.

Similarly, everyone is treating a TT on stage 21 after a ridiculously hard ten days or so like if it were a normal one. By that point, it's more of a matter of fatigue: in 2017, Dumoulin lost to van emden and put less than a minute on Nibali in a 30k pan flat time trial. Last year, we saw roglic struggle a bit on the final tt. I don't expect Rogli to gain much more than 30s on that TT.

This.
The final TT will be meaningless unless the gaps are very small after stage 20.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

I wouldn't be so sure - we've seen plenty of cases at the giro in which multi-mountain stages create very big gaps: 2016 was crazy from the corvara stage (where previous favourite valverde lost three minutes) to the end, while last year of course we had sestriere. There are three, maybe four stages where genuinely big gaps are possible, and I'm talking about gaps in the minutes.

Similarly, everyone is treating a TT on stage 21 after a ridiculously hard ten days or so like if it were a normal one. By that point, it's more of a matter of fatigue: in 2017, Dumoulin lost to van emden and put less than a minute on Nibali in a 30k pan flat time trial. Last year, we saw roglic struggle a bit on the final tt. I don't expect Rogli to gain much more than 30s on that TT.

This.
The final TT will be meaningless unless the gaps are very small after stage 20.

You are a genius

 

[Escarabajo]

I am surprised at the response of the polls. Especially since we haven't even had one single climb.
OK, Nibali and Roglic are in the driving seats, but still is still somewhat open based on that cruel parcours.

 

[sir fly]

So far Roglič's been superb, but the standings are arranged for spectacular racing.
We have a group minutes behind the leader and some between them. No one can give up even before the mountains and many could try to profit from such distribution. The attacks are inevitable, but more interesting will be tactical decisions... in all three groups of contenders.

 

[luckyboy]

Voted for Nibali because another final few days turnaround like 2016 would be fun. Seems like the main competition at this point, barring miracles from the climbers.


But when does Conti lose the jersey? Friday, right? As long as they race hard.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

I am surprised at the response of the polls. Especially since we haven't even had one single climb.
OK, Nibali and Roglic are in the driving seats, but still is still somewhat open based on that cruel parcours.

Yip. I'm thinking of 2005 with Basso and Savoldelli. Also huge gaps after Zoldo Alto, Rujano was 8:26 down and almost won the Giro later. Anything can and will happen, especially with climbs like San Carlo and Mortirolo.

 

[Climbing]

I guess we are trusting a lot Roglic coming up and Nibali huge class and experience, but yeah, we really need to wait for proper mountains.
As said before, by next Sunday we'll have a clearer picture, but not necessarily definite, after all last week is even harder...

 

[damian13ster]

Majka lost 30-40s more than I expected in the TT. Most likely due to not being great in rain, not confident in staying upright (losses in first sector and good times in the remaining 2).
If he didn't then he would be defensive. Now I think Bora will go to attack, starting with Formolo and seeing how others react.
Yates, MAL will go bonkers imho. Absolutely no reason not to do so. The last week should be fun.