2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigorre

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Mar 6, 2011
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tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
He wont lose Yellow but I would be very impressed if he loses less than 15 seconds to Thomas
 
I was shocked to see S.Yates in the break and a bit surprised with Trentin - Commentators are stating that Simon will be the main helper for Adam - In fact Jack haig will be the number one mountain support rider.
 
Re: Re:

Midnightfright said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
He wont lose Yellow but I would be very impressed if he loses less than 15 seconds to Thomas
looks pretty much like a perfect course for him. He'll lose some time on the final 10k, but after the 2nd split he may even be ranked 1st, I 'd think.
 
Mar 6, 2011
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search said:
Midnightfright said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
He wont lose Yellow but I would be very impressed if he loses less than 15 seconds to Thomas
looks pretty much like a perfect course for him. He'll lose some time on the final 10k, but after the 2nd split he may even be ranked 1st, I 'd think.
I might be putting to much into how much energy Alaphillipe as expended but I'm expecting something like 30-40 seconds difference
 
Oct 1, 2015
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movingtarget said:
ppanther92 said:
Keram said:
Am I only one who thinks Matthews giving up green contest was absolutely useless?
No, not at all. The only ones seeing some sense in that decision seems to be Sunweb.
All of the training he had put in was endurance work to help Dumoulin. He wasn't going to win green and he and the team knew it. Now he go go for stage wins and free up some of the other riders on the team as well.

Well I don´t see any which could suit him besides stage 17. He is good TTier but I dont think he can win. And from mountain stages todays stage was best suited for him. So I don´t see benefits from not collecting points. They gave chance Cees Bol and he ended 8. anyway.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
tobydawq said:
Bushman said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
15 seconds? That seems crazy. Thomas should be challenging for a podium spot tomorrow.
So should Alaphilippe. The route is perfect for him.
Podium for the stage? I don't see that happening.
Okay, the podium is maybe a bit optimistic, but it really does seem to suit him with a couple of short hills where he is the best in the world. He was 7th in the Dauphiné TT but seems a million miles better in this race. Additionally, he hasn't been having a very hard time the last couple of stages, so he shouldn't be too fatigued and his rouleur skills have looked splendid in this race. Of course, he might have suffered more today than I think he did, in which case I will probably be proven wrong but I'm very intrigued to seeing him tomorrow.
 
22 van Baarle Dylan Team INEOS
23 Rowe Luke Team INEOS
24 Kwiatkowski Michał Team INEOS
25 Castroviejo Jonathan Team INEOS
26 Poels Wout Team INEOS
27 Thomas Geraint Team INEOS
28 Bernal Egan Team INEOS
29 Moscon Gianni Team INEOS
:lol:

And how did it look on the top of d'Ancizan?
 
Re: 2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigo

Too many good Tt’ers For Alaphilippe to finish third. That being said I think he’ll lose 20-30 seconds to Thomas tomorrow.

Still like WVA for the win and I think it could be a convincing win as well.
 
Re: 2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigo

LesDiablesRouges said:
Too many good Tt’ers For Alaphilippe to finish third. That being said I think he’ll lose 20-30 seconds to Thomas tomorrow.

Still like WVA for the win and I think it could be a convincing win as well.
The problem is that other than Van Aert and Kragh Andersen, there are a lot of arrows pointing in the negative direction for all other specialists:

Schachmann has looked subpar in the race and spent a lot of energy in the race.
Asgreen has patrolled the front the entire race and is tire.
Tony Martin has done the same and the route doesn't suit him.
The same goes for Lampaert who also seems to be on the down since his win in Suisse.
Kwiatkowski may not be allowed to go all out and disappointed at nationals.
Castroviejo may not be allowed to go all out and has been garbage the entire season, except for nationals.
Dennis, well.
Küng has been subpar the entire season and will not like the route.
Oliveira could actually be a dark horse but does he still have the level?
EF boys (Bettiol, Langeveld, Scully) are unlikely to podium and Bettiol didn't look good today where he was in the break.
Durbridge and Hepburn should have been the main engines for the TTT where the team sucked.
Rosskopf could be a possibility, but I don't think he can beat Alaphilippe. He might have had his eyes on this stage the entire race, but he needs to confirm his Vuelta TT, which he hasn't been close to doing this season.
Matthews has been too active in the race to be a contender for tomorrow.
Haga has had a heavy schedule and been riding a bit on the front but he could do the sneaky one like in the Giro.
Dowsett and Politt ride for Katusha.

Then you have the GC riders like Thomas of course but also Kruijswijk, Porte or even Buchmann, Yates or Fuglsang but the last mentions won't beat Alaphilippe.
 
Re: Re:

Keram said:
movingtarget said:
ppanther92 said:
Keram said:
Am I only one who thinks Matthews giving up green contest was absolutely useless?
No, not at all. The only ones seeing some sense in that decision seems to be Sunweb.
All of the training he had put in was endurance work to help Dumoulin. He wasn't going to win green and he and the team knew it. Now he go go for stage wins and free up some of the other riders on the team as well.

Well I don´t see any which could suit him besides stage 17. He is good TTier but I dont think he can win. And from mountain stages todays stage was best suited for him. So I don´t see benefits from not collecting points. They gave chance Cees Bol and he ended 8. anyway.
You are right. Hard to see a stage that suits him.
 
Re: Re:

tobydawq said:
Bushman said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
15 seconds? That seems crazy. Thomas should be challenging for a podium spot tomorrow.
So should Alaphilippe. The route is perfect for him.
Well, experts like Rolf Sørensen predicted a Julian Alaphilippe-attack today (I mean, wtf?!) and the ever brilliant Henrik Juul predicted a similar situation to that of 2013. That was the 1st time I watched the studio this year - why does that old man still have a job?

They are dreamers, not experts.
 
Re: 2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigo

Mühlberger :(
Kinda reminded me on stage 14 of the 2016 giro when preidler threw away a win by starting his sprint with 500 meters to go. The sprint was very different but my crushed dreams were very similar
 
Re: 2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigo

tobydawq said:
LesDiablesRouges said:
Too many good Tt’ers For Alaphilippe to finish third. That being said I think he’ll lose 20-30 seconds to Thomas tomorrow.

Still like WVA for the win and I think it could be a convincing win as well.
The problem is that other than Van Aert and Kragh Andersen, there are a lot of arrows pointing in the negative direction for all other specialists:

Schachmann has looked subpar in the race and spent a lot of energy in the race.
Asgreen has patrolled the front the entire race and is tire.
Tony Martin has done the same and the route doesn't suit him.
The same goes for Lampaert who also seems to be on the down since his win in Suisse.
Kwiatkowski may not be allowed to go all out and disappointed at nationals.
Castroviejo may not be allowed to go all out and has been garbage the entire season, except for nationals.
Dennis, well.
Küng has been subpar the entire season and will not like the route.
Oliveira could actually be a dark horse but does he still have the level?
EF boys (Bettiol, Langeveld, Scully) are unlikely to podium and Bettiol didn't look good today where he was in the break.
Durbridge and Hepburn should have been the main engines for the TTT where the team sucked.
Rosskopf could be a possibility, but I don't think he can beat Alaphilippe. He might have had his eyes on this stage the entire race, but he needs to confirm his Vuelta TT, which he hasn't been close to doing this season.
Matthews has been too active in the race to be a contender for tomorrow.
Haga has had a heavy schedule and been riding a bit on the front but he could do the sneaky one like in the Giro.
Dowsett and Politt ride for Katusha.

Then you have the GC riders like Thomas of course but also Kruijswijk, Porte or even Buchmann, Yates or Fuglsang but the last mentions won't beat Alaphilippe.
At best he can hope to be third. Behind van Aert & Thomas. But Kruijswijk, Yates, Buchman all finished ahead of him in Dauphiné, with Fuglsang and Politt just a few seconds behind. And then there is a real possibility that Mas, Bernal who are roughly his level in ITT, also perform better as they likely have burnt less matches.
 
Re: 2019 Tour de France, stage 12: Toulouse>Bagnères-de-Bigo

Gigs_98 said:
Mühlberger :(
Kinda reminded me on stage 14 of the 2016 giro when preidler threw away a win by starting his sprint with 500 meters to go. The sprint was very different but my crushed dreams were very similar
If only Mühlberger started his sprint earlier :D
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
tobydawq said:
Bushman said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
15 seconds? That seems crazy. Thomas should be challenging for a podium spot tomorrow.
So should Alaphilippe. The route is perfect for him.
Well, experts like Rolf Sørensen predicted a Julian Alaphilippe-attack today (I mean, wtf?!) and the ever brilliant Henrik Juul predicted a similar situation to that of 2013. That was the 1st time I watched the studio this year - why does that old man still have a job?

They are dreamers, not experts.
Can you explain how this relates to Alaphilippe's chances in tomorrow's ITT ??
 
Re: Re:

Cance > TheRest said:
Valv.Piti said:
tobydawq said:
Bushman said:
tobydawq said:
The Danish "experts" think Alaphilippe will lose yellow tomorrow.

I think he will lose less than 15 seconds to Thomas.
15 seconds? That seems crazy. Thomas should be challenging for a podium spot tomorrow.
So should Alaphilippe. The route is perfect for him.
Well, experts like Rolf Sørensen predicted a Julian Alaphilippe-attack today (I mean, wtf?!) and the ever brilliant Henrik Juul predicted a similar situation to that of 2013. That was the 1st time I watched the studio this year - why does that old man still have a job?

They are dreamers, not experts.
Can you explain how this relates to Alaphilippe's chances in tomorrow's ITT ??
The Danish 'experts', as Tobydawg referred to in his first comment.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Cance > TheRest said:
Valv.Piti said:
tobydawq said:
Bushman said:
15 seconds? That seems crazy. Thomas should be challenging for a podium spot tomorrow.
So should Alaphilippe. The route is perfect for him.
Well, experts like Rolf Sørensen predicted a Julian Alaphilippe-attack today (I mean, wtf?!) and the ever brilliant Henrik Juul predicted a similar situation to that of 2013. That was the 1st time I watched the studio this year - why does that old man still have a job?

They are dreamers, not experts.
Can you explain how this relates to Alaphilippe's chances in tomorrow's ITT ??
The Danish 'experts', as Tobydawg referred to in his first comment.
Apparently, I need glasses.

Timewise, it's probably midways between Toby's prediction of 15s and losing the jersey. Alaphilippe has not been great in ITT's lately. Somewhere around 30-40 seconds and then on Saturday, the jersey will be virtually on Thomas' shoulders 5km's after Luz Saint Saveur.
 

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