2020-22 Emerging Riders CQ Game

Armchair cyclist · Jul 5, 2022

Year 3 Month 6 30 May to 3 July

Not for the first time, the cohort a year behind these guys have scored far better. And participation in the Tour de France is going to have far less impact here than it has on year three of previous iterations of the game.

RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	210	7	Nat RR win/Occitanie 2nd
MEEUS Jordi	117	1	2nd in Dauphine stage and in Nat RR
VAN POUCKE Aaron	110	1	3rd in ZLM tour
WEEMAES Sasha	101	4	4th in both Elfstedenronde and Nat RR
WILLIAMS Stephen	95	2
RIES Michel	78	4
ZIMMERMANN Georg	72	13
JORGENSON Matteo	72	5
SIMMONS Quinn	70	26

The game's leader tops the table for this month, by no small margin, but just look at how much better the team that none of us selected is than any real team.

1	JonEzeitza	648	Rodriguez/Ries/Zimmermann/Simmons
2	SafeBet	548	Rodriguez/Jorgenson/Simmons
3	Cordi	520	Rodriguez/Simmons
4	Northerner	475
5	Blues_in_the_Bottle	466
6	Josedin	452
7	Squire	449
8	Skidmark	424
9	Ludwigzgz	417
9	Otoxiep87	417
11	Laarsland	412
12	AlyKaptan	407
13	Del_1962	397
14	Vladimir	389
15	hfgon1	367
16	Fivezzz	360
17	Armchair_Cyclist	345
18	Joelsim	332
19	RoteLaterne	321
20	AmisVelo	304
21	Madrazo	293
22	LosBrolin	290
23	LukasCPH	287
24	Nicosix	282
25	Scrooll07	263
26	Koronin	238
27	Ray10	229
28	Kazistuta	218
29	Karaev	203
30	Leadbelly	191
31	Archieboy	188
32	MuddyWaters	186
33	Comodoro	184
	CollectiveWisdom	330
	CollectiveIgnorance	1884	Zana/Kooij/De Lie/Schmidt

Standings
The beginning of something decisive?

1	JonEzeitza	8985	0
2	Squire	8691	0
3	AmisVelo	8516	0
4	Cordi	8406	0
5	Northerner	8320	0
6	Skidmark	8257	0
7	Fivezzz	8070	0
8	Madrazo	7983	0
9	SafeBet	7819	0
10	Joelsim	7525	1
11	RoteLaterne	7490	1
12	Karaev	7445	-2
13	Kazistuta	7317	0
14	Nicosix	7303	0
15	Armchair_Cyclist	7253	0
16	Laarsland	7210	0
17	Del_1962	7171	0
18	Vladimir	6989	2
19	MuddyWaters	6939	-1
20	LosBrolin	6907	-1
21	LukasCPH	6845	0
22	Blues_in_the_Bottle	6786	1
23	Ludwigzgz	6768	-1
24	AlyKaptan	6329	0
25	hfgon1	6214	1
26	Otoxiep87	6196	1
27	Comodoro	6081	-2
28	Josedin	5953	3
29	Ray10	5945	-1
30	Scrooll07	5902	0
31	Archieboy	5853	-2
32	Koronin	3986	0
33	Leadbelly	1752	0
	CollectiveWisdom	8029
	CollectiveIgnorance	12217

Armchair cyclist · Aug 19, 2022

Year 3, Month 7 (and a bit of 8) 4th July to 7th August
Yes, it's more than a week since the other editions were updated, and this data is now more than a week old (so excludes Tour de l'Ain, Portugal, Arctic, Polynormande inter alia), but here it is, off my to do list before La Vuelta.

In previous editions this Y3 M7 update has seen multiple Tour stage wins and high, even winning, GC places. Not so much this time around.

ARENSMAN Thymen	200	13	Stage win and GC 2nd in Poland
PIDCOCK Thomas	194	21	Stage win and 17th GC in TdF
ALEOTTI Giovanni	175	10	2 stage wins and GC win in Sibiu
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	172	7	5th in San Seb and 4th in Burgos
JORGENSON Matteo	132	5	3 top 5s and 21st overall in Tour de France
SOBRERO Matteo	125	1	4th in Poland
VANHOUCKE Harm	124	1	2nd in Sibiu/12th in Wallonie
PICCOLO Andrea	122	2	6th in Sibiu/7th Villafranca/2nd Getxo
BUITRAGO SANCHEZ Santiago	91	2
WRIGHT Fred	77	2
VAN WILDER Ilan	73	25
LEEMREIZE Gijs	53	1

This period:

1	Cordi	963	Arensman/Pidcock/Rodriguez/Piccolo/van Wilder
2	RoteLaterne	925	Arensman/Pidcock/Aleotti/Piccolo
3	JonEzeitza	914	Pidcock/Aleotti/Rodriguez/Sobrero/van Wilder
4	SafeBet	862	Arensman/Pidcock/Rodriguez/Jorgenson/van Wilder
5	Karaev	842	Arensman/Pidcock/Aleotti/van Wilder
6	Armchair_Cyclist	830	Arensman/Pidcock/Jorgenson/Vanhoucke/van Wilder
7	Madrazo	797
8	Northerner	726
9	Ludwigzgz	709
10	Joelsim	626
11	Squire	623
12	Del_1962	607
13	Fivezzz	572
14	Archieboy	563
15	Kazistuta	561
16	Otoxiep87	558
17	AmisVelo	557
18	Blues_in_the_Bottle	547
19	Josedin	530
20	hfgon1	519
21	Laarsland	481
22	AlyKaptan	473
23	Skidmark	472
24	LosBrolin	455
25	Vladimir	436
26	LukasCPH	406
27	Comodoro	405
28	Nicosix	390
29	MuddyWaters	356
30	Scrooll07	261
31	Koronin	194
32	Leadbelly	172
33	Ray10	109
	CollectiveWisdom	817
	CollectiveIgnorance	684

Standings
Cordi, the highest scorer in this session, jumps two places to give a Spanish 1-2 as we run into La Vuelta. Jon Ezeitza was third in this batch of races, so looks increasingly unlikely to be beaten. However, Cordi and Search both have 70 EuroTT points from Bissegger over him, at least, so not over yet...

1	JonEzeitza	9899	0
2	Cordi	9369	2
3	Squire	9314	-1
4	AmisVelo	9073	-1
5	Northerner	9046	0
6	Madrazo	8780	2
7	Skidmark	8729	-1
8	SafeBet	8681	1
9	Fivezzz	8642	-2
10	RoteLaterne	8415	1
11	Karaev	8287	1
12	Joelsim	8151	-2
13	Armchair_Cyclist	8083	2
14	Kazistuta	7878	-1
15	Del_1962	7778	2
16	Nicosix	7693	-2
17	Laarsland	7691	-1
18	Ludwigzgz	7477	5
19	Vladimir	7425	-1
20	LosBrolin	7362	0
21	Blues_in_the_Bottle	7333	1
22	MuddyWaters	7295	-3
23	LukasCPH	7251	-2
24	AlyKaptan	6802	0
25	Otoxiep87	6754	1
26	hfgon1	6733	-1
27	Comodoro	6486	0
28	Josedin	6483	0
29	Archieboy	6416	2
30	Scrooll07	6163	0
31	Ray10	6054	-2
32	Koronin	4180	0
33	Leadbelly	1924	0
	CollectiveWisdom	8846
	CollectiveIgnorance	13076

As a measure of how poorly most of us are doing here, SafeBet's score over 19 months in the round that started in 2021 would hold 4th place in this game which has points accumulated over 31 months.

Maybe this bunch of riders, or those who selected them, can find redemption in the Vuelta (Rodgiguez, van Wilder, Arensman seem most likely to do something, there are a few other selected names on the startlist). Next update probably a week after that.

Armchair cyclist · Sep 17, 2022

Year 3, month 8-9a 8 Aug - 11 Sept
Yet again, this cohort have been outperformed by those thought too young to be of any benefit in this game. Juan Ayuso had just turned 17 when we were putting our teams together for this, and De Lie was also still too young to buy drinks in a pub, but if anyone had heard of them and had the foresight, they would be running away with this by now.

ARENSMAN Thymen	355	13	GC 6th with win and 2nd stages in Vuelta
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	231	7	7th in Vuelta GC
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam	230	6	3rd Quebec/6th Bretagne/4th Doubs
WRIGHT Fred	183	2	1x2nd 2x3rd and 2x4th on Vuelta stages
PIDCOCK Thomas	144	21	2nd in Tour of Britain
HONORE Mikkel Frølich	142	5	6th Quebec/11th Montreal/16th Bretagne
BAGIOLI Andrea	139	26
ZIMMERMANN Georg	134	13
STRONG Corbin	130	1
VANSEVENANT Mauri	128	19
OLDANI Stefano	108	5
PICCOLO Andrea	103	2

1	SafeBet	1404	Arensman/Rodriguez/Girmay/Pidcock/Bagioli/Strong
2	Cordi	1369	Arensman/Rodriguez/Pidcock/Bagioli/Vansevenant/Piccolo
3	RoteLaterne	1357	Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann//Vansevenant/Piccolo
4	Madrazo	1169	Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann/Vansevenant
5	Karaev	1154	Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann/Vansevenant
6	Armchair_Cyclist	1129
7	Kazistuta	1124
8	JonEzeitza	1119
9	AmisVelo	1014
10	Skidmark	993
11	Nicosix	984
12	Ludwigzgz	982
13	Blues_in_the_Bottle	927
14	Archieboy	906
15	Vladimir	903
16	hfgon1	887
17	Fivezzz	862
18	Northerner	832
19	LosBrolin	818
20	AlyKaptan	806
21	Scrooll07	772
22	Del_1962	768
23	Joelsim	742
24	Laarsland	736
25	Squire	732
26	Otoxiep87	727
27	LukasCPH	707
28	Comodoro	679
29	Josedin	616
30	MuddyWaters	610
31	Ray10	363
32	Koronin	245
33	Leadbelly	208
	CollectiveWisdom	1190
	CollectiveIgnorance	2342

Standings
Going into the last lap, JonE didn't have a great month, but Honore, Zimmermann and Oldani limit the losses that he suffers to Cordi. The gap is approximately halved, so another session with a similar gaps between those teams would make it very close.
Third place is closely contested though.

1	JonEzeitza	11018	0
2	Cordi	10738	0
3	AmisVelo	10087	1
4	SafeBet	10085	4
5	Squire	10046	-2
6	Madrazo	9949	0
7	Northerner	9878	-2
8	RoteLaterne	9772	2
9	Skidmark	9722	-2
10	Fivezzz	9504	-1
11	Karaev	9441	0
12	Armchair_Cyclist	9212	1
13	Kazistuta	9002	1
14	Joelsim	8893	-2
15	Nicosix	8677	1
16	Del_1962	8546	-1
17	Ludwigzgz	8459	1
18	Laarsland	8427	-1
19	Vladimir	8328	0
20	Blues_in_the_Bottle	8260	1
21	LosBrolin	8180	-1
22	LukasCPH	7958	1
23	MuddyWaters	7905	-1
24	hfgon1	7620	2
25	AlyKaptan	7608	-1
26	Otoxiep87	7481	-1
27	Archieboy	7322	2
28	Comodoro	7165	-1
29	Josedin	7099	-1
30	Scrooll07	6935	0
31	Ray10	6417	0
32	Koronin	4425	0
33	Leadbelly	2132	0
	CollectiveWisdom	10036
	CollectiveIgnorance	15276

It's hard to imagine point scoring after 16th October, so there will be an update soon after that, with a final confirmation at the end of the year. But it is almost time to start your shortlists for 2023-25, and to try to make the Collective Ignorance team of that edition less of an indictment upon us all than it has been here.

All the names and numbers, lest you want to condusct your own inqiry into how it has gone right/wrong for you.

bminchow · Sep 19, 2022

Armchair cyclist said:
Year 3, month 8-9a 8 Aug - 11 Sept
Yet again, this cohort have been outperformed by those thought too young to be of any benefit in this game. Juan Ayuso had just turned 17 when we were putting our teams together for this, and De Lie was also still too young to buy drinks in a pub, but if anyone had heard of them and had the foresight, they would be running away with this by now.

ARENSMAN Thymen
355
13
GC 6th with win and 2nd stages in Vuelta
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos
231
7
7th in Vuelta GC
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam
230
6
3rd Quebec/6th Bretagne/4th Doubs
WRIGHT Fred
183
2
1x2nd 2x3rd and 2x4th on Vuelta stages
PIDCOCK Thomas
144
21
2nd in Tour of Britain
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
142
5
6th Quebec/11th Montreal/16th Bretagne
BAGIOLI Andrea
139
26
ZIMMERMANN Georg
134
13
STRONG Corbin
130
1
VANSEVENANT Mauri
128
19
OLDANI Stefano
108
5
PICCOLO Andrea
103
2

1 SafeBet
1404
Arensman/Rodriguez/Girmay/Pidcock/Bagioli/Strong
2 Cordi
1369
Arensman/Rodriguez/Pidcock/Bagioli/Vansevenant/Piccolo
3 RoteLaterne
1357
Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann//Vansevenant/Piccolo
4 Madrazo
1169
Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann/Vansevenant
5 Karaev
1154
Arensman/Pidcock/Bagioli/Zimmermann/Vansevenant
6 Armchair_Cyclist
1129
7 Kazistuta
1124
8 JonEzeitza
1119
9 AmisVelo
1014
10 Skidmark
993
11 Nicosix
984
12 Ludwigzgz
982
13 Blues_in_the_Bottle
927
14 Archieboy
906
15 Vladimir
903
16 hfgon1
887
17 Fivezzz
862
18 Northerner
832
19 LosBrolin
818
20 AlyKaptan
806
21 Scrooll07
772
22 Del_1962
768
23 Joelsim
742
24 Laarsland
736
25 Squire
732
26 Otoxiep87
727
27 LukasCPH
707
28 Comodoro
679
29 Josedin
616
30 MuddyWaters
610
31 Ray10
363
32 Koronin
245
33 Leadbelly
208
CollectiveWisdom
1190
CollectiveIgnorance
2342

Standings
Going into the last lap, JonE didn't have a great month, but Honore, Zimmermann and Oldani limit the losses that he suffers to Cordi. The gap is approximately halved, so another session with a similar gaps between those teams would make it very close.
Third place is closely contested though.

1
JonEzeitza 11018
0
2
Cordi 10738
0
3
AmisVelo 10087
1
4
SafeBet 10085
4
5
Squire 10046
-2
6
Madrazo 9949
0
7
Northerner 9878
-2
8
RoteLaterne 9772
2
9
Skidmark 9722
-2
10
Fivezzz 9504
-1
11
Karaev 9441
0
12
Armchair_Cyclist 9212
1
13
Kazistuta 9002
1
14
Joelsim 8893
-2
15
Nicosix 8677
1
16
Del_1962 8546
-1
17
Ludwigzgz 8459
1
18
Laarsland 8427
-1
19
Vladimir 8328
0
20
Blues_in_the_Bottle 8260
1
21
LosBrolin 8180
-1
22
LukasCPH 7958
1
23
MuddyWaters 7905
-1
24
hfgon1 7620
2
25
AlyKaptan 7608
-1
26
Otoxiep87 7481
-1
27
Archieboy 7322
2
28
Comodoro 7165
-1
29
Josedin 7099
-1
30
Scrooll07 6935
0
31
Ray10 6417
0
32
Koronin 4425
0
33
Leadbelly 2132
0
CollectiveWisdom 10036
CollectiveIgnorance 15276

It's hard to imagine point scoring after 16th October, so there will be an update soon after that, with a final confirmation at the end of the year. But it is almost time to start your shortlists for 2023-25, and to try to make the Collective Ignorance team of that edition less of an indictment upon us all than it has been here.

All the names and numbers, lest you want to condusct your own inqiry into how it has gone right/wrong for you.

Well done to those in the lead. And what ever happened to Koronin?

Armchair cyclist · Sep 22, 2022

Since the last update (unofficial)
For Jon Ezeitza
Sobrero 28 (WC ITT) + 37 (WC TTT)
Honore (WC TTT) 20
Oldani 9 (Wallonie)
Ries 5 (Luxembourg)
Total 99

For Cordi
Bisegger 96 (WC ITT) + 62 (WC TTT)
Vansevenant 90 (Slovakia)
Piccolo 24 (Coppa Sabatini)
Rubio 36 (Giro Toscana) + 5 (Coppa Sabatini)
Total 313

So JonE's lead has (if accurate) dropped from 280 to 66 points

Future rides (per PCS a few days ago, may have been updated since)
JonE:
WC RR: Honore, Zimmermann, Sobrero
Lombardia: Aleotti, Oldani, Zimmermann, Sobrero

Cordi
WC RR: Bisegger
Lombardia: Arensman, Brenner, Donovan, Rubio, Tiberi, Vansevenant
Paris Tours: Piccolo
Emilia: Vansevenant
Bernocchi: Vansevenant

Close...

Armchair cyclist · Oct 17, 2022

Rather to my surprise, CQ have issued a download of the scores as of yesterday. That's normal, but as the season ends tomorrow as far as all top level teams (that are not yet on holidays) are concerned, I thought they might wait and release the update then.
That means we are probably a week away from the provisional scores of the season for all three Emerging riders games.

As far as this edition is concerned, tomorrow in Malaysia will almost certainly see the final points scored, but the race has become so tight that what happens there will determine the outcome of three years of competition.
I won't let on yet, but the two protagonists in the game know just what is happening, even if one rider who is about as far from home as is possible while still on the planet is unaware of the significance of his staying upright and mobile for 2 1/2 hours tomorrow.

I will keep an eye out in case CQ does do a post-Langkawi end of season update beforehand, but it looks like the final revelation will have to wait until next Monday...

Armchair cyclist · Oct 26, 2022

Year 3, Month 9b-10 12 Sept to 23 October (except last pro race was 17th)

And because that last pro race has now finished, that should be it for this edition of the game (unless there are some selections who have not held a place in the pro-ranks and are in .2 races outside Europe, but any should be fairly insignificant).

And an eventful last month and a bit it has been, as those who have dipped into the thread will know, especially if they have taken the detour to Parlamiento Ciclismo, where we have seen a very civil Spanish war.

But, as ever, the first focus is on the riders, finishing the third season of their emergence thus:

Name	Pts this sesion	Teams	source
MEEUS Jordi	231	1(Joelsim)	Primus Classic win/Paris Bourges 5th
PICCOLO Andrea	217	2 (Cordi & Rote Laterne)	Japan Cup 2nd/Lombardia 11th/Agostini 3rd
STRONG Corbin	190	1(SafeBet)	Bernocchi 2nd/Wallonie 5th/Piemonte 7th
BISSEGGER Stefan	182	19	WC ITT 5th/WC TTT 1st/Chrono des Nations 7th
OLDANI Stefano	128	5	Bernocchi 3rd/Veneto Classic 4th
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	127	7	Lombardia 5th
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto	126	20	Langkawi 5th/G della Toscana 4th
THIJSSEN Gerben	120	3	Gooikse Pijl win/Kamp. van Vlaanderen 7th
VANSEVENANT Mauri	114	19	Slovakia 2nd/Lombardia 20th
SOBRERO Matteo	105	1( Jon Ezeitza)	WC ITT 13th/WC TTT 2nd/Chrono des Nations 3rd

Those, plus the lesser scores that other riders achieved, benefitted our teams as follows:

Rank this month		Pts this session	Main riders
1	Cordi	884	Piccolo/Bissegger/Rodriguez/Rubio/Vansevenant
2	RoteLaterne	847	Piccolo/Bissegger/Rubio/Vansevenant
3	Joelsim	796	Meeus/Bissegger/Rubio/Vansevenant
4	Squire	687	Bissegger/Rubio/Thijssen/Vansevenant
5	SafeBet	686	Strong/Rodriguez/Rubio
6	AmisVelo	601	Oldani/Rubio/Vansevenant
7	Kazistuta	580
8	hfgon1	575
9	Karaev	565
10	JonEzeitza	556	Oldani/Rodriguez/Sobrero
11	LosBrolin	555
12	Northerner	552
13	Fivezzz	546
14	Archieboy	542
15	Comodoro	540
16	Madrazo	530
16	Ray10	530
18	Skidmark	517
19	Armchair_Cyclist	499
19	MuddyWaters	499
21	Josedin	481
22	Laarsland	468
23	Nicosix	466
24	Del_1962	402
25	LukasCPH	397
26	Ludwigzgz	391
27	Vladimir	390
28	Scrooll07	387
29	Blues_in_the_Bottle	312
30	AlyKaptan	276
31	Koronin	207
32	Otoxiep87	193
33	Leadbelly	137
	CollectiveWisdom	535
	CollectiveIgnorance	1373	Skjelmose/Mozzato/Kooij/De Lie/Zingle

Presumed final standings
Jon Ezeitza moved into top position in August last year, when Cordi was 12th: Jon was temporarily displaced for one update, but thereafter had looked fairly secure, with a 530 point lead in early August this year. Cordi, however, had been threatening with top score on two updates this year, 2nd place on two, and 3rd on a further two. And then topped the table again this time around.

Piccolo's second place meant that Cordi took the overall lead in the small hours of Sunday morning, but through Sobrero in Les Herbiers and Oldani in Veneto, Jon saw the end of the season as far as Europe is concerned in the lead. But in Malaysia, Einer Rubio had come third on the queen stage the previous Thursday, and looked poised to retain that position on GC: he lost a couple of places on the Monday, although it was a modified route, but there was no repeat of that loss in the final stage of the professional season, and it was those GC points that finally pushed Cordi to the top of the table.

1	Cordi	11622	1
2	JonEzeitza	11574	-1
3	SafeBet	10771	1
4	Squire	10733	1
5	AmisVelo	10688	-2
6	RoteLaterne	10619	2
7	Madrazo	10479	-1
8	Northerner	10430	-1
9	Skidmark	10239	0
10	Fivezzz	10050	0
11	Karaev	10006	0
12	Armchair_Cyclist	9711	0
13	Joelsim	9689	1
14	Kazistuta	9582	-1
15	Nicosix	9143	0
16	Del_1962	8948	0
17	Laarsland	8895	1
18	Ludwigzgz	8850	-1
19	LosBrolin	8735	2
20	Vladimir	8718	-1
21	Blues_in_the_Bottle	8572	-1
22	MuddyWaters	8404	1
23	LukasCPH	8355	-1
24	hfgon1	8195	0
25	AlyKaptan	7884	0
26	Archieboy	7864	1
27	Comodoro	7705	1
28	Otoxiep87	7674	-2
29	Josedin	7580	0
30	Scrooll07	7322	0
31	Ray10	6947	0
32	Koronin	4632	0
33	Leadbelly	2269	0
	CollectiveWisdom	10571
	CollectiveIgnorance	16649

Not only the top two changing places: extraordinarily for so late in the game, none of the top 8 remain where they were little ore than a month ago.

So congratulations to Cordi for the win, and to Jon for making such a contest of it, and to SafeBet for the late grab of the final podium spot.

This has been a very strange edition, mainly because of the near elimination of the calendar for the first year, but also in part due to the lack of a huge scorer, while those following this cohort do seem to have some monster potential resulting in the humiliation of all teams by the list of eligible but unchosen riders.

I will at some time do an analysis of riders and scores to try to work out why the tables were so volatile (I suggested that the podium looked settled at the end of year 2, but one of the three who looked set for said podium has now finished 10th) and the scores so low.

Until then, see if you can fathom it out here is the spreadsheet.

jon ezeitza · Oct 29, 2022

Thank you for your congratulations and for the work you have been doing over the years, which is a lot, Armchair Cyclist. I am happy with the second place, which has a lot of merit and I had never achieved it before. Congratulations to Cordi, a rival to be feared by anyone, because he knows the young cyclists as if they were his own children. In the 2022-23 season we will meet again in this forum.

Squire · Nov 13, 2022

I'll echo the gratefulness for the work done with these games! I think a lot of players are like me in that they don't comment too often, but check in with a keen eye from time to time. It's really satisfying when these picks turn out successful, and there are a few "what on earth was I thinking" moments, too.

I got really close to three straight podiums here, but missed out in this edition by 38 points! That's one 3rd place in a 1.1 race! Having a bit of a form dip in the 20-23 game, it seem, but it's looking better again for the one ending in 2024. I'm also looking forward to finding some talented gems to put in my team for the edition that's hopefully starting over the new year!

Armchair cyclist · Jan 5, 2023

End of the game

No selected rider scored in the period since the end of the n.1 and European season. I would say that it reflects well on our picks that that is the case, but given that we have between us 21 riders who didn't score in 2022, and 6 who didn't score at all across the three years, that is not necessarily the case.

There were some late adjustments to scores though, as I discovered 2 extra points each for Jordi Meeus (Joelsim's unique pick) and Tom Pidcock (on 21 teams), due to the removal of Luca Colnaghi's stage wins at the 2020 Baby Giro: no-one changed position because of those corrections.

It was by far the closest and most exciting finish of any edition to date, with the lead changing hands several times over the closing month, and even during the last 2.1 race of the year in Malaysia. And although I didn't track it as closely, the margins for the last podium place were equally (coincidentally, exactly so) small.

oh dear...
But the numbers show it as not being our finest set of selections. I would have expected the 2018-20 game to be the one most affected by Covid, as Year 3 gives the biggest haul of points, and Year 1 the smallest, and it was of course 2020 that saw most race cancellations. But the scores this time were, frankly, pitiful. If any of the top three in the 22-14 edition repeats that total in Year 2, (and most managers should expect Year 2 to be higher than Year 1), they will have scored more in 2 years than Cordi in 3; SafeBet's score after 2 years in the edition starting its final year would be on the podium here. Our choices were made before we knew of Covid, but there is no reason why those we picked should have suffered disproportionately to their peers. And yet the best Year 3 score here is lower than the best 2020 Year 3 score, and the best Year 2 score is less than 2/3 of the average pre-covid year 2 score.

Maybe the simple fact is that we didn't pick well, regardless of any Covid effect: the Collective Ignorance team came out top by a huge margin; and the winning score was 54.2% of what perfect foresight would have given, compared to a previous worst of 64.8%.

Volatility
It was not only on the last month that there was a lot of movement on the table: while there is a tendency for these games to settle into a pattern fairly early on, this time around teams were scuttling up and down the table wildly:

	rank at end of Yr 1	after Yr 2	after Yr 3
Cordi	20	11	1
JonEzeitza	4	1	2
SafeBet	23	20	3
Squire	8	3	4
AmisVelo	2	8	5
RoteLaterne	26	13	6
Madrazo	11	5	7
Northerner	9	4	8
Skidmark	3	6	9
Fivezzz	12	2	10
Karaev	18	12	11
Armchair_Cyclist	15	18	12
Joelsim	16	7	13
Kazistuta	30	21	14
Nicosix	7	19	15
Del_1962	22	9	16
Laarsland	13	14	17
Ludwigzgz	17	26	18
LosBrolin	14	16	19
Vladimir	1	17	20
Blues_in_the_Bottle	20	23	21
MuddyWaters	10	15	22
LukasCPH	5	10	23
hfgon1	27	28	24
AlyKaptan	6	22	25
Archieboy	19	24	26
Comodoro	29	25	27
Otoxiep87	32	31	28
Josedin	25	30	29
Scrooll07	24	27	30
Ray10	28	29	31
Koronin	31	32	32
Leadbelly	33	33	33

Year 3 saw 44% of the game's points scored, and is the most important year every time (except in 2020). The top scorers list this year was rather dominated by unselected riders (some of who we wouldn't have known of at all at the end of 2019), so I'll extend this to include 10 anyway that were on a team:

DE LIE Arnaud	1439	0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	1082	7
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam	1048	6
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	1004	0
KOOIJ Olav	968	0
ARENSMAN Thymen	955	13
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	944	0
ZINGLE Axel	727	0
SCHMID Mauro	656	0
SHEFFIELD Magnus	621	0
VAUQUELIN Kévin	618	0
PIDCOCK Thomas	599	21
MOZZATO Luca	595	0
LOUVEL Matis	594	0
ZANA Filippo	515	0
VANSEVENANT Mauri	514	19
PICCOLO Andrea	509	2
TESFATSION Natnael Ocbit	493	0
BUITRAGO SANCHEZ Santiago	493	2
MEEUS Jordi	483	1

while the Year 3 points for each team were

1	Cordi	6112
2	SafeBet	6008
3	RoteLaterne	5269
4	JonEzeitza	5145
5	AmisVelo	4967
6	Kazistuta	4829
7	Armchair_Cyclist	4687
8	Karaev	4629
9	Madrazo	4503
10	Ludwigzgz	4497
11	Squire	4451
12	Northerner	4407
13	Nicosix	4350
14	Skidmark	4323
15	Otoxiep87	4180
16	hfgon1	4091
17	Blues_in_the_Bottle	4053
18	Joelsim	3791
19	Fivezzz	3748
20	Josedin	3678
21	Laarsland	3656
22	Vladimir	3627
23	LosBrolin	3531
24	Archieboy	3455
25	AlyKaptan	3349
26	Comodoro	3344
27	Del_1962	3342
28	MuddyWaters	3196
29	Scrooll07	2970
30	Ray10	2919
31	LukasCPH	2764
32	Koronin	1939
33	Leadbelly	1076
	CollectiveWisdom	4616
	CollectiveIgnorance	10612

Top riders
across all three years, were

DE LIE Arnaud	1496	0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	1409	7
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam	1756	6
PIDCOCK Thomas	1366	21
KOOIJ Olav	1361	0
HONORE Mikkel Frølich	1345	5
SKJELMOSE JENSEN Mattias	1288	0
ARENSMAN Thymen	1198	13
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan	1182	0
MEEUS Jordi	1159	1
MOZZATO Luca	1112	0
COVI Alessandro	1057	4
BISSEGGER Stefan	1014	19
BAGIOLI Andrea	1012	26
VANSEVENANT Mauri	967	19
SERRANO RODRIGUEZ Gonzalo	915	0
ZANA Filippo	900	0
TESFATSION Natnael Ocbit	900	0

That is the team that would have scored 21437 (that Cordi got 54.2% of, as noted above)

A reminder of the final table, with the riders for the top teams that were in the top team (although it is often the makeweights that make all the difference: strength in depth is the key)

1	Cordi	11624	Rodriguez/Pidcock/Arensman/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
2	JonEzeitza	11576	Rodriguez/Pidcock/Honore/Vansenenant
3	SafeBet	10773	Girmay/Rodriguez/Pidcock/Arensman/Bagioli
4	Squire	10735	Pidcock/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
5	AmisVelo	10690	Girmay/Pidcock/Bagioli/Vansenenant
6	RoteLaterne	10621	Pidcock/Arensman/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
7	Madrazo	10481	Pidcock/Arensman/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
8	Northerner	10432	Pidcock/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
9	Skidmark	10241	Girmay/Pidcock/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
10	Fivezzz	10052	Pidcock/Honore/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
11	Karaev	10008	Pidcock/Arensman/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
12	Armchair_Cyclist	9713
13	Joelsim	9693
14	Kazistuta	9584
15	Nicosix	9143
16	Del_1962	8950
17	Laarsland	8897
18	Ludwigzgz	8852
19	LosBrolin	8737
20	Vladimir	8718
21	Blues_in_the_Bottle	8574
22	MuddyWaters	8406
23	LukasCPH	8357
24	hfgon1	8195
25	AlyKaptan	7884
26	Archieboy	7864
27	Comodoro	7707
28	Otoxiep87	7674
29	Josedin	7580
30	Scrooll07	7322
31	Ray10	6947
32	Koronin	4632
33	Leadbelly	2269
	CollectiveWisdom	10573	Pidcock/Arensman/Bissegger/Bagioli/Vansenenant
	CollectiveIgnorance	16650	all those with a zero in the table above this

The winning team
This is the standard that no-one else (quite) matched up to:

RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	1409
PIDCOCK Thomas	1366
ARENSMAN Thymen	1198
BISSEGGER Stefan	1014
BAGIOLI Andrea	1012
VANSEVENANT Mauri	967
SIMMONS Quinn	736
LOPEZ PEREZ Juan Pedro	627
PICCOLO Andrea	563
RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto	483
EEKHOFF Nils	456
VAN WILDER Ilan	395
RUTSCH Jonas	309
TIBERI Antonio	301
VAN MOER Brent	295
DONOVAN Mark	254
BRENNER Marco	136
ARDILA ORDOÑEZ Andres Camilo	103

And if there is any more meaningful data to be extracted from the spreadsheet, help yourself (and share it here if you think anyone else will be interested)

You don't still need another reminder about the 2023-2025 Emerging Riders game, do you?

Squire · Jan 5, 2023

Interesting how this was such a low-scoring edition. But I think we could see that coming. If I remember correctly, this was the edition where I thought to myself when picking the team that 'there is a distinct lack of very promising riders here'. The edition before had Hayter, Evenepoel, Almeida, Leknessund and Dainese, who were all very exciting talents back then. The edition after has Ayuso, Brenner (very exciting at the time) and a one year older Arensman, Van Wilder and Vansevenant.

Whereas in this 20-22 edition, I ended with as many as four quite random Colombians (Ardila was very hyped though). The three aforementioned low-landers were among the most exciting for this edition, and the fact that they all could be picked the next year as well says quite a lot. Other than that it was just Pidcock, Simmons, Bagioli and Thijssen that felt like potential future world-beaters to me, I think. Quite a number of filler picks in my team (f.ex. Bouchard, Weemaes, Rutsch and the Colombians). Some of the guys who ended up being top scorer for the period were, as you say, unlikely to be on the radar of most people.

The upcoming edition has a 'medium' talent pool, I'd say. Some potentially great ones, but we're now a year too late for Cian, Ayuso, De Lie, Plapp and Piccolo. I think the 22-24 edition can be very strong.

Armchair cyclist · Jan 5, 2023

I think that is probably true: the law of averages is not strict and cohorts do not even out necessarily.

Of the high scoring Collective Ignorance riders, I think there cannot be a lot of blame attached to us for not thinking about De Lie, Skjelmose, Ayuso and Zingle in January 2020 (although these would, I suppose, have been the level of risky pick of younger riders that make for the occasional superb unique pick we get).

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