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Why not?I give Yates no chance and I'm from Yorkshire
Fuglsang is 35 yo and his only top10 finish at a GT was 7 years ago. How can he be a top favourite in a 3-week race?
Thomas and Yates are top favourites with Nibali and Kruijswijk also among contenders. Any winner besides these guys would be a big surprise to me.
it 100% is not unless someone turns up with unexpectedly incredible climbing form. There was talk here of them fielding Thomas-Bernal-Sosa-Dunbar-Geoghegan Hart. Instead they’ve put together a truly awesome assembly of rouleurs. They’ll murder the flyweight climbers if there’s a crosswind. They’ll be metronomic through the mountains while plenty of domestiques are there. But Thomas will be lucky to have one guy still with him after the real attacks start.
Now that I’ve said that I half expect all these big lumps to show up climbing like WVA.
Bernal presumably has no form or interest. Dunbar is injured. What’s up with Sosa?
Sosa could maybe be backup for Vuelta GC but not for Giro GC.Maybe they do it because they believe the level will be higher in La Vuelta (stronger teams). They need a bigger train there?
Sosa is maybe better suited to the Vuelta climbs?
I just really don't trust him in the third week on those monster stages. Would love to be proved wrong not only from local support but he's one of the most attacking GC riders around as wellWhy not?
Every contender has a few question marks attached.
Any winner besides these guys would be a big surprise to me.
I feel like most people are overestimating Yates by saying his big question mark is the third week and big mountain stages, while I think it has to be at least as big of a question mark that Yates has only had one season in his career where he looked like a gt winner before reverting back to his former self last year. And I don't actually think we have a good excuse for his performance in last years giro.
I'm just not nearly as convinced last year was the outlier, not 2018, as most people seem to be.
Well I didn't disagree about his 2018 season being great, did I? I only said that it looks to be a bit of an outlier and as you've given us this list of results let's take away those which fall into that season and look at what remains which is 2 GT stages and his recent Tirreno Adriatico win. Those two gt stages were both breakaway wins in last years Tour, so he wasn't riding against other gc riders. His Tirreno win, yeah that one was very impressive it has to be noted though that perfomring extremely well in one week stage races has always been a Yates thing (Simon as well as Adam). Simon won the queen stage in the Vuelta Andalucia and the ITT of Paris Nice before being mediocre in last years Giro. He won stages on WT level in Romandie and Paris Nice before being mediocre in the 2017 Tour. (As a comparison, Adam isn't far off his brothers record in that regard. In the last two and a half years he has also won a stage race plus 5 stages on the WT level)In the last two and a half seasons he’s won a GT, seven GT mountain stages, the queen stage of editions of Paris Nice, Tirreno, Catalunya and a bunch of other stage races. He is the most prolific winner of climbing stages in the peloton. His amazing climbing level isn’t a one season thing at all.
His frailties, inconsistency and an ability to suddenly and mysteriously have no form, are clear. So I don’t think anyone can really see him as a prohibition favourite for any race. But I don’t see how someone with his climbing level, including very recently, who has held it together and won a GT before, can be seen as anything other than a serious contender. He’s entirely capable of winning the Giro, he’s entirely capable of losing an hour on a random mountain stage with no warning.
Both stages did not include tough climbs, and he won both in a tactical/brave attacking manner, instead of being flat out strongest ( In this years Tirreno stage at Sassotetto he was simply the strongest for example, in a much tougher climb ). In the Romandie stage Porte was much stronger but Yates managed to stay with him after Porte catching him after his earlier attack. He stayed out after an attack in Paris-Nice as well, and in both examples he was not the strongest.Well I didn't disagree about his 2018 season being great, did I? I only said that it looks to be a bit of an outlier and as you've given us this list of results let's take away those which fall into that season and look at what remains which is 2 GT stages and his recent Tirreno Adriatico win. Those two gt stages were both breakaway wins in last years Tour, so he wasn't riding against other gc riders. His Tirreno win, yeah that one was very impressive it has to be noted though that perfomring extremely well in one week stage races has always been a Yates thing (Simon as well as Adam). Simon won the queen stage in the Vuelta Andalucia and the ITT of Paris Nice before being mediocre in last years Giro. He won stages on WT level in Romandie and Paris Nice before being mediocre in the 2017 Tour. (As a comparison, Adam isn't far off his brothers record in that regard. In the last two and a half years he has also won a stage race plus 5 stages on the WT level)
Yates career is simply weird. Nobody expected him to become a guy to win gt's, then 2018 happened where he suddenly looked like the greatest gt rider in the world, before 2019 happened and everything went back to normal. I'm not at all convinced 2018 was indeed an outlier, but I'm not convinced of the opposite either. All I'm saying is that we can't talk about Yates as if the 2019 giro didn't happen and his 2018 gt's are the last ones we can judge him by. All I'm saying is that 2018 so far being a one off by him adds another questionmark to his name.
I think Yates had a few flashes in 2019 that are a bit hard to ignore that suggest to me he wasn't back to square 2017 and before. Hazallanas, Giro prologue. Then lighting up Tirreno this year.Well I didn't disagree about his 2018 season being great, did I? I only said that it looks to be a bit of an outlier and as you've given us this list of results let's take away those which fall into that season and look at what remains which is 2 GT stages and his recent Tirreno Adriatico win. Those two gt stages were both breakaway wins in last years Tour, so he wasn't riding against other gc riders. His Tirreno win, yeah that one was very impressive it has to be noted though that perfomring extremely well in one week stage races has always been a Yates thing (Simon as well as Adam). Simon won the queen stage in the Vuelta Andalucia and the ITT of Paris Nice before being mediocre in last years Giro. He won stages on WT level in Romandie and Paris Nice before being mediocre in the 2017 Tour. (As a comparison, Adam isn't far off his brothers record in that regard. In the last two and a half years he has also won a stage race plus 5 stages on the WT level)
Yates career is simply weird. Nobody expected him to become a guy to win gt's, then 2018 happened where he suddenly looked like the greatest gt rider in the world, before 2019 happened and everything went back to normal. I'm not at all convinced 2018 was indeed an outlier, but I'm not convinced of the opposite either. All I'm saying is that we can't talk about Yates as if the 2019 giro didn't happen and his 2018 gt's are the last ones we can judge him by. All I'm saying is that 2018 so far being a one off by him adds another questionmark to his name.
Then again even in the 2018 Vuelta Yates didn't actually look as impressive as in the 2018 giro. In the 2018 giro he was simply climbing a level above everyone else whenever the road went upwards until stage 18. In the 2018 Vuelta he wasn't. He was actually dropped quite regularly but was also the only one who showed consistent shape over three weeks. (Almost ironic considering how he lost the giro)I think Yates had a few flashes in 2019 that are a bit hard to ignore that suggest to me he wasn't back to square 2017 and before. Hazallanas, Giro prologue. Then lighting up Tirreno this year.
If the 2018 Giro had been the only time Yates had ridden a GT like that I woudl be more sceptical, but he won the Vuelta that year as well, and he's only bottled one GT since then. In the subsequent Tour he went for stages and won 2.
I give Yates no chance and I'm from Yorkshire
,,,and RemcoThis Giro lacks Quintana
I was just about to post that a stage on October 22 over the Stelvio has quite a lot of positive thinking in it...Snow at Stelvio:
And the coming days looking very cold: https://www.yr.no/place/Italy/Lombardy/Giogo_dello_Stelvio/long.html
I don’t think it’s that different from scheduling the Stelvio in May/June. On average it’s colder, but according to the climate sites I checked, there is a fair amount less precipitation in that region in Oct Than in May or June. Plus there’s very little possibility of avalanche closing roads because even it does snow there’s not enough snowpack for significant avalanches. Seems like the biggest risk would be wet roads that get icy the night before a stage. I’m not saying the riders will be comfortable in late-October conditions, but I don’t think the risk of cancelling climbs is any greater than springtime.I was just about to post that a stage on October 22 over the Stelvio has quite a lot of positive thinking in it...
Still some time to go, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Stelvio needs to be skipped, due to bad weather/snow.
Let's wait and see.
Btw, am I allowed to be smug about my Yates comments?