To change bike or not to change bike. You could write a theater play about it. Normally those guys should be able to predict and they should be able to measure, based on power numbers and other data, how much time (and energy) you would be able to save by using a lighter road bike on a climb, and whether it is worth it or not, compared to the time you lose by changing a bike. On a 35 minute ITT, with a 7k climb (i believe?) i think i remember heaving read you should be able to "win" around 20 seconds per kilogram that you weigh less on a 30 minute climb. Google tells me a typical ITT bike weighs roughly 1 to 2 kilograms heavier, so that would mean you could possibly win 20-40 seconds with a regular bike in this case. So, if you swap bikes and nothing goes wrong in the process it would probably have been the smarter thing to do here. How long would a bike change take? 10 seconds + another 10 to get back in your rhythm?That's actually pretty incredible. Many here thought (myself included) it'd be a comfotable win for Roglič. And it's not like Roglič went slow. Polanc in third ,who is supposedly in very good form, has a similar gap he had in 2019 San Marino ITT where Roglič won in the Giro even though that ITT was 20min longer. He was 12th that day, so a good time trialist on hilly terrain.
The weather wasn't much of a factor because Pogačar and Roglič started one after another just one minute apart. Of course Pogačar likes the rain and was probably highly motivated to take revange on Rogla and might have had taken more risks. Also the bike change was probably the right choice (Roglič didn't change the bike). But that doesn't change the fact that it was an exceptional performance from Pogačar.
In the end i think this was it. Roglič likely felt he has enough power, to approach the whole race on a TT bike. And that didn't pan out. Roglič and his team will need to make sure, they make the right call on the stage 20 on the Tour.Maybe Roglic also wanted to make a statement by winning a climbing TT on a timetrial bike.
I think it's pretty obvious they'll mostly change bikes. At least for the GC contenders.View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e0E1x2N0AU
In the end i think this was it. Roglič likely felt he has enough power, to approach the whole race on a TT bike. And that didn't pan out. Roglič and his team will need to make sure, they make the right call on the stage 20 on the Tour.
To change the bike or not to change it, for the last climb. Will be interesting to see in what position different riders will be at and on how they will approach it!
They could send Tony Martin and Wout van Aert off with different tactics, and decide then... But seriously, i think they should know either way, based on distance, weight, watts etc.Now imagine on how many times teams like TJV will need to take a look at some stage on TDF. To get the strategy right.
P.S. If they could only do that twice or so!
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