I have mixed feelings but overall I like this route especially considering "Tour-standards."
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Mountains are spread all over the race
Placement of Key-stages (Pyreneers = weekend, Massif Central plus Colombiere = weekend)
Potential GC-action on almost every single day
Nicely designed medium mountain stages
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One-sided focus on optimizing Alaphillipes chances for an overall Tour-bid
Pyreneers are slightly disappointing
Lack of really hard mountain stages
Lack of long and enduring stages (perhaps especially a high mountain stage with proper lenght)
I never understood why sprinters should have 7-9 or more chances in a grand tour. Refreshing that ASO finally went Vuelta-mode on that one.
First Week:
Would love to see profiles before final conclusions but stage 4 and 6 seems to be quite suited for skirmishes between GC-riders. Stage 2 in my opinion is kind of a waste. Neither Colmiane og Turini serves any purpose on that stage. Aside from the lack of creativity in the pyreneers, I don't dislike that first stage to Loudenville. Could be better but Menté, Bales and Peyresorde are solid mountains. The main problem is the lenght. 140 km is way too short. They should have made this one close to 200 km and packed it more with a few minor mountains. If so, the next day would had made sense. The second stage in the Pyreneers is very disappointing and in my opinion only marginally better than the usual bore-stuff to Foix. Downhill sections on both stages in the Pyreneers largely favors Alaphillippe. He can recoup any time he may have lost uphill. For him the Peyresorde-stage is probably a bit more dangerous. Stage 6 should suit him very well and stage 4 is no worse than this years Prati d'Albi. In addition it comes early in the race and with no mountains before hand. Alaphillippe shouldn't lose to much time.
Second week:
Stage 10 could suffer from crosswinds transforming this one to something quite exciting. Stage 11 will probably be non-interesting GC-wise. Stage 12 is marked hilly but it is difficult to judge it without a proper stage profile. Suc au May on climbybike is set at 5,67 km with and average gradient of 8,8%. If it is very close to the finish it could provide some real action. Otherwise this one must be for break-away riders. Stage 13 is nicely made and more than just an appetizer for what is later to come. It is however once again a stage that suits Alaphillippe more than any other GC-contender. Stage 14 includes Col du Beal but considering its placement on the route this stage is probably more for break-away riders without GC-action. Stage 15 is the first "real" test for the GC-riders. If Alaphillippe is in yellow here other GC-riders can't waste this stage. They have to put maximum pressure on him.
Third week:
Stage 16 is yet another medium mountain stage. Considering the nature of stage 17 and 18, the road to Villard-de-Land probably won't spark a lot of GC-action. Again this is a stage favouring Alaphillippe. Stage 17 and 18 (together with pre-mentioned stage 15) are obviously where Bernal and other climbers and serious GC-riders have to break Alaphillippe. On stage 18 Plateau Gliéres is obviously the decisive pass but it is a bit far out. Alaphillippe is once again given an extra chance with that long descent and much easier climb up Col des Fleuries. Stage 19 and 21 will provide proper motivation for sprinters to stay in the race while that ITT on stage 20 up to Planche des Beilles certainly again favors Alaphillippe considering what he did on both Planche and the rolling ITT this year.
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