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2020 Tour de France route rumors

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If he has been compared to and nicknamed Balaphilippe or Jalaphilippe, then Alaphilippe should have some GC potential. To me, just a matter of training and objectives.

In '20, Alaphilippe's goal could be stages and green, which with the polka that he already got puts him in a very select group of riders.
What's he gonna do, train in the high mountains at the expense of his punch? He could make himself the 8th best climber in the race with no signficant quality that gains him any time back.

And the argument you present is backwards. If Alaphilippe doesn't do good GCs again, the comparison is l
I am still waiting for Kwiatkowski to make the transition.

As the fifth man in line, he steps up to retain the yellow jersey for Ineos after Bernal, Carapaz, Froome and Thomas crash out in week one.

Michal: Making the Colombier Grand again.

This is my ultimate cycling news forum dream.
any winner on Grand Colombier is GC champion
 
Cause his main quality are the more anaerobic efforts, and because even when 'climbing well on his day' he still got dropped every day.

And he's not a typical TT'er turned GTer who will take minutes out of the climbers on any ITT nor is he the big aerobic engine that limits his losses when he's dropped.
He wasn't dropped every day, what are you talking about? On PdBF, which is a hard and long enough climb to reward endurance more than anaerobic ability he would have gained time if he hadn't jumped too early. On the Tourmalet he followed the best till the very end and it wasn't exactly a bunch gallop.
 
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A lot of stages are quite tough, but only one stage is very tough. This makes it radically different from a classic Tour. In a classic Tour there's a bunch of stages where you know that nothing will happen for the GC and about five stages where everything is at stake. In this Tour something can happen almost every day, but the first two weeks won't necessarily create major gaps. It will be harder for one team to suffocate the race and some unexpected contenders might get in the mix. However someone who's too aggressive in the first two weeks might collapse in the third week, especially in stage 17.
 
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A lot of stages are quite tough, but only one stage is very tough. This makes it radically different from a classic Tour. In a classic Tour there's a bunch of stages where you know that nothing will happen for the GC and about five stages where everything is at stake. In this Tour something can happen almost every day, but the first two weeks won't necessarily create major gaps. It will be harder for one team to suffocate the race and some unexpected contenders might get in the mix. However someone who's too aggressive in the first two weeks might collapse in the third week, especially in stage 17.
Yes. Giro 2012 vibes.
 
Robo Basso. Robo Roglic. On stage seventeen they realise that they have been watching the wrong guy. Mollema wins.
That Giro actually had 3 really hard mountain stages, the Cortina stage, Pampeago and the Stelvio MTF. But I get why you'd compare the 2, both could be a big waiting game with the only ITT near the end.
The route looks really good for Roglic, he could be the man to beat on this kind of route.
 
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As they have only focused on climbers, basically eliminating time trialist and sprinters, i am afraid that TDF will lost some of the appeal and prestige.

P.S. Lets wait for the routes, but it could be that Giro or Vuelta will take the GT crown in 2020.
 
Think his ITT when super tired isnt as great.
Hard to say, last year he had the elbow problem in the Tour itt and at the Giro both he and Yates were already flying at the start and got worn by the long stages and bad weather before the real mountain stages started.
Yates cracked totally and Roglic was toast in the final itt, Nibali managed to beat him in this kind of TT.
But yes, fatigue is often the biggest factor in a TT at the end of a gt.
 
Well, yes, but it is true that he would increase his chances slightly by denying that he would go for GC.
As stated elsewhere in this thread, the Olympics road race is a week after the Tour - on the other side of the planet (jet lag), and the route is pretty much tailor made for Alaphilippe.

It's almost a once in a career chance, for a rider like him.... and while the Olympics are not traditionally a major season target for road riders, it has become so the last years, especially after the hotly contested Rio race..... and GvAs gold helmet since then..... they all wanna be that guy now - and the teams all want that guy as well ;)

Add to that, that because the Tour is climb heavy at the front this time around, any contender needs to show up in top shape day one - which is terrible if you want to peak on mount Fuji (pun intended :p ) 4 weeks later.

So there is not a snowballs chance in hell, that he will compromise that chance, by going deep in the Tour, except for a few selected days late in the race, where he stage hunts..... otherwise the tour will be about honing his shape.

We will see the same from guys like Valverde and Fuglsang, who are also eyeing the Olympics..... I would say Pinot should do the same - but being the captain of a french team, there is no way he can downplay the Tour.

Add to all that, that Worlds are for the same types of riders next year, which means riding GC at the Vuelta also becomes sketchy.

So I predict we see an unusually strong Giro field next year ;)
 
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Well, yes, but it is true that he would increase his chances slightly by denying that he would go for GC.
Based on what we saw this year, I suspect Alaphilippe will train the same way and see what happens in the first week. If he's in yellow again or in virtual yellow, he'll fight to the finish. If he's a couple of minutes behind the true favorites he'll go for stages. No sense, as you note, in Alaphilippe announcing that you're going to fight for GC at this point in time, or even ever, really. He's just setting himself up as someone that Ineos or JV need to eliminate as soon as possible.

The other point re JA is that if Roglic, Dumoulin and Froome show up in top shape it will be a much much harder tour, and he'll have very little chance of a podium or even holding yellow until the third week.
 
Alaphilippe gained time because he wasn't considered a danger, was lucky the first two mountain top finishes were ridden perfectly for him and despite the final two mountain stages being drastically shortened he still only finished in 5th off the podium by two minutes against one of the weakest gc fields I've ever seen at the tour. Everything went perfect for him and he couldn't come close to winning it. I guess he could improve by focussing on stage racing but I definitely don't think he is one of the guys to watch for the gc.

About what stages are gonna be important. I think people slightly overestimate the loudenvielle stage (when does the peyresourde ever create big gaps?) but also slightly underestimate the stage to laruns. The marie blanque is no joke and the stage comes before a restday. Also that flat stretch at the end looks longer than it is due to the stage being rather short.
 
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About what stages are gonna be important. I think people slightly overestimate the loudenvielle stage (when does the peyresourde ever create big gaps?) but also slightly underestimate the stage to laruns. The marie blanque is no joke and the stage comes before a restday. Also that flat stretch at the end looks longer than it is due to the stage being rather short.
Peyresourde can create significant, if not big gaps, if there are a couple of dominant climbers that want to go for it. The 2007 stage to Loudenvielle was almost indentical to the 2020 one. Pretty sure Rasmussen and Contador could have taken even more time if they had wanted to.

Agreed though that the Marie-Blanque stage could produce bigger gaps.
 
This. Could have an ITT on stage 10 or 11 maybe; I don't like stages being wasted after rest days. The thing is, is that proper gaps produce different tactical scenarios, even between teammates. It's likely that Bernal will be stronger than Froome and Thomas in the mountains, but what if he loses minutes, or even just forty seconds, to them, in an ITT? What do Ineos do then, when Froome and Thomas are struggling to stay with Roglic on a MTF, do they let Bernal off the leash? Or what about Allaphalippe? He may gain more than he loses against his rivals in a 35 km ITT, particularly if it is a little lumpy. I don't see him winning a Tour with stages with multiple high mountains, and with their being many multiples of such stages. Pinot is a decent rider, but to basically base a Tour around him is laughable.
Pinot is a great rider, just brittle as a toothpick.
 
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Alaphilippe gained time because he wasn't considered a danger, was lucky the first two mountain top finishes were ridden perfectly for him and despite the final two mountain stages being drastically shortened he still only finished in 5th off the podium by two minutes against one of the weakest gc fields I've ever seen at the tour. Everything went perfect for him and he couldn't come close to winning it. I guess he could improve by focussing on stage racing but I definitely don't think he is one of the guys to watch for the gc.

About what stages are gonna be important. I think people slightly overestimate the loudenvielle stage (when does the peyresourde ever create big gaps?) but also slightly underestimate the stage to laruns. The marie blanque is no joke and the stage comes before a restday. Also that flat stretch at the end looks longer than it is due to the stage being rather short.
Bales-Peyresourde is okay, mainly because Bales is hard.

Peyresourde from that side isn't super hard, but if a team wants to drop the hammer they can.

MB also has the problem that the descent is pretty flattish, so that makes it nearly impossible for a tiny group to ride away from a larger one.
 
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Peyresourde can create significant, if not big gaps, if there are a couple of dominant climbers that want to go for it. The 2007 stage to Loudenvielle was almost indentical to the 2020 one. Pretty sure Rasmussen and Contador could have taken even more time if they had wanted to.

Agreed though that the Marie-Blanque stage could produce bigger gaps.
The 2007 stage was much longer and also had the Port and Portet D'Aspet included
 
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About what stages are gonna be important. I think people slightly overestimate the loudenvielle stage (when does the peyresourde ever create big gaps?) but also slightly underestimate the stage to laruns. The marie blanque is no joke and the stage comes before a restday. Also that flat stretch at the end looks longer than it is due to the stage being rather short.
Stages 4, 6, 8 ,13 and 16 will be about gaining or losing a few seconds or half a minute maximum between the contenders. Stages 15, 17 and 20 can create really big gaps, as can stage 18, but it wouldn't surprise me that a lot of people will lick their proverbial wounds after stage 17 and it will be rather softpedalled. Stage 9 can create gaps, but i don't think the eventual final top 3 will get rid of eachother on that stage.
 
Alaphilippe gained time because he wasn't considered a danger, was lucky the first two mountain top finishes were ridden perfectly for him and despite the final two mountain stages being drastically shortened he still only finished in 5th off the podium by two minutes against one of the weakest gc fields I've ever seen at the tour. Everything went perfect for him and he couldn't come close to winning it. I guess he could improve by focussing on stage racing but I definitely don't think he is one of the guys to watch for the gc.

About what stages are gonna be important. I think people slightly overestimate the loudenvielle stage (when does the peyresourde ever create big gaps?) but also slightly underestimate the stage to laruns. The marie blanque is no joke and the stage comes before a restday. Also that flat stretch at the end looks longer than it is due to the stage being rather short.
Kay so I totally missed they miss the first third of the Peyresourde coming from the Port de Bales.

Yeah don't see that much happening there.
 

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