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The only two who have enjoyed some victories an one day racing are Chaves and Uran. From the 2 I would pick Uran to have a better result. However Chaves performance was getting a bit better at the end of the Tour.
I would not discount Dani Martinez. He is sitting on good form. Not the Sergios. Higuita has been having issues with his performance.
Now if you were asking about their chances overall, I don't see them with too much chance. They are underdogs which is the only thing that will play in their favor. They can fly under the radar. Especially Zubeldia.
I expect one colombian in the top 10, nothing more. With Martinez, Uran and Higuita working together maybe a top 5.
Belgium will do all the work and then lose like always.
Ala is gonna win this and give us the kind of glorious rainbows we haven't seen since Cipo
To be fair to them, they clarified their reasons for it; put simply, their road women cyclists are u23s, so there’s no Worlds for them this year, and their priority for their elite women cyclists is the track in November.
It’s a shame Martin isn’t riding this course, but he can’t be fully fit right now, even if he did have good enough form to contest. Our lads have just never done well at the Worlds since 87, really. (Except Mark Scanlon’s junior title).
The explanation for the absence of a women’s team is a self serving nonsense in the absence of the best women riders announcing that they don’t want to ride. And there was no such announcement or indication. Every rider on just about every team has other targets sooner than November. I’m even more annoyed after the explanation than I was before.
As for the men, well Martin is the only potentially relevant rider and if he isn’t in shape and doesn’t want to do it, they may as well let Roche do whatever he wants and send a kid for experience because why not. Mullen can get a few bottles and then go for a relaxing coffee somewhere,
Now this is a strange year, I know.
For decades since early 80ies the elite men WC had been 'my' christmas eve and last15 years or so coordinated with family, friends, club to empty my calendar for that day. This Covid-19 year I completely forgot. And had a strange feeling not feeling anything for it, unlike other years tuning my mind in a week or even several weeks before on occations.
But just five minutes ago, past bedtime I'm suddenly all psyched up and in my normal WC mood! WOW! All thrilled now and trouble to get to sleep. As it should be
Primarily due to some stray thoughts about how open these worlds really are tomorrow,
This will NOT be an AVdB snooze fest, I'm pretty sure!
And I definately think the ranking and odds setting of the favourites could be wrong. Just for two reasons this could end as cat or dog or even the mice:
1: The weather outcome, still uncertain if it will be a short big wash in between the light rain and when this will happen, or steady growing precipitation. The wet impact on the roads, especially if it ends in a wash. The dropping temperatures. Still here so close the different weather forecasts does not quite agree on uniformity of outcome.
2: How hard will it be raced? Will the peleton have too much respect for the route? For some riders it surely is a benefit with a hard race from the gun, or at least force tempo with 80-100K to go. For other nations it will be an advantage to make the race easy. And another outcome is a semi-hard race with both favourites and underdogs in the final.
So many uncertainties . Some will call the two-headed Pog-Rog monster, but how are the Slovenians conditions after a hard Tour in a World's distance? Same could be questioned about Schachmann, Alaphillipe, Lutsenko, Hirschi, Avermaet, Valverde, and Carapaz. Van Aert is surely on form (cannot be used as a dipstick for the aforementioned at all I think), but what if pure climbers really open from button of last climbs? And riders like Woods and Fuglsang, do they have a national team strong enough to help when it hurts?
I think the race could very well end up as not only the expected elimination run from behind but in fact more escape groups taking different forms in the last couple of laps. Afraid that some crashes on the tiny wet roads could be a factor, too. Just hope it will not happen early in the race, resulting in a reluctant pending race.
Hope I have not jinxed it now - sadfully I will not be able to watch the race right from the start which I think is my first time in this millenium, but surely I'll tape it all.
But finally all the feelings came to me
For decades since early 80ies the elite men WC had been 'my' christmas eve and last15 years or so coordinated with family, friends, club to empty my calendar for that day. This Covid-19 year I completely forgot. And had a strange feeling not feeling anything for it, unlike other years tuning my mind in a week or even several weeks before on occations.
But just five minutes ago, past bedtime I'm suddenly all psyched up and in my normal WC mood! WOW! All thrilled now and trouble to get to sleep. As it should be
Primarily due to some stray thoughts about how open these worlds really are tomorrow,
This will NOT be an AVdB snooze fest, I'm pretty sure!
And I definately think the ranking and odds setting of the favourites could be wrong. Just for two reasons this could end as cat or dog or even the mice:
1: The weather outcome, still uncertain if it will be a short big wash in between the light rain and when this will happen, or steady growing precipitation. The wet impact on the roads, especially if it ends in a wash. The dropping temperatures. Still here so close the different weather forecasts does not quite agree on uniformity of outcome.
2: How hard will it be raced? Will the peleton have too much respect for the route? For some riders it surely is a benefit with a hard race from the gun, or at least force tempo with 80-100K to go. For other nations it will be an advantage to make the race easy. And another outcome is a semi-hard race with both favourites and underdogs in the final.
So many uncertainties . Some will call the two-headed Pog-Rog monster, but how are the Slovenians conditions after a hard Tour in a World's distance? Same could be questioned about Schachmann, Alaphillipe, Lutsenko, Hirschi, Avermaet, Valverde, and Carapaz. Van Aert is surely on form (cannot be used as a dipstick for the aforementioned at all I think), but what if pure climbers really open from button of last climbs? And riders like Woods and Fuglsang, do they have a national team strong enough to help when it hurts?
I think the race could very well end up as not only the expected elimination run from behind but in fact more escape groups taking different forms in the last couple of laps. Afraid that some crashes on the tiny wet roads could be a factor, too. Just hope it will not happen early in the race, resulting in a reluctant pending race.
Hope I have not jinxed it now - sadfully I will not be able to watch the race right from the start which I think is my first time in this millenium, but surely I'll tape it all.
But finally all the feelings came to me
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What annoys me outside of the riders we dont send the ones we do send dont seem to have any sort of plan. I know we rarely have a favourite but we could at least pretend that we are there to win. How many WC and Olympics have we seen where Irish riders just sit in the bunch and roll in at 35th place and I bet thats what will happen tomorrow. At least get in a break and die with your boots on
Maybe in recent times but Roche in 87 and Merckx in 70or 71 I would take over WVA in2020
Dunne got in the break in Richmond. Martin got in the break in Yorkshire, but would surely have been better used guiding Bennett through the first few hours of racing and keeping him fresh for the final laps.
I can’t see any way the 3 guys in Imola come away with anything, but you’re right, if they at least rode like there’s some sort of grand strategy at play it wouldn’t feel so bad to read the following day that they dnf’d with 60km to go.
I like the course. It's hard (obviously, since MVDP decided not to come) but certainly not as hard as Innsbruck.
WVA is a deserving favourite but it won't be easy for him. Some strong riders will be trying their luck on the penultimate lap and it will be hard to control.
I keep coming back to Schachmann. His broken collar bone is now six weeks and one TDF ago so he should be pretty close to his best. I don't see him getting dropped on the climb and in a reduced group sprint I think only WVA would be faster. If the rains do come in the last hour of the race that would assist him even further.
WVA is a deserving favourite but it won't be easy for him. Some strong riders will be trying their luck on the penultimate lap and it will be hard to control.
I keep coming back to Schachmann. His broken collar bone is now six weeks and one TDF ago so he should be pretty close to his best. I don't see him getting dropped on the climb and in a reduced group sprint I think only WVA would be faster. If the rains do come in the last hour of the race that would assist him even further.
A ride by the Slovenians wouldn't surprise, Woods has to be a chance again, Valverde would normally like this course. Unsure of Matthews, Simon Clarke would like it. Hard one to pick the winner of. Not sure about the French riders at the moment probably not.
As a Dane, I think that will be a problem for Fuglsang. The team is pretty weak this year. Some of the best rides have focused on the classics to come and go for good results in these races.
But Fuglsang has done it before, without a great team - so he will probably be in there in the end. Only question is how much energy he had to use.
How are most of them going to react with only one weeks rest since the tour? What about the lenght of the course - is'nt it longer than every tour stage this year?
Which national team can get the riders to work together and which teams will ride for them selves. Some of the teams can be strong and some of them will probably fuxk up and ride for themselves.
I think it's pretty idiotic to 'focus on the classics' while the parcours at these worlds is a classics one. It's definitely a missed opportunity for Kragh, for instance. He could've done very well here if the race remained closed for long enough. Besides, look at Belgium: all their riders are classics riders - so are they now going to go badly in Flanders etc. because of this one extra race (perhaps the most important in the year)?
I think, now that you mention it, both Dunne (all 6’10” of him) and Mullen (all 80kgs of him) got in the break in Innsbruck. And that’s fine, but like Martin going up the road in Yorkshire, it betrays a lack of confidence in the ability on the course; Martin hadn’t a chance in Innsbruck really, having just had twins, but if the team had been focused from the start on delivering him to the last lap as fresh and protected as possible, he might’ve at least had a sniff of top 10 or something.
I agree.... but if the tactics is all in for Fuglsang (it is now), then I can understand Kragh. He will focus on keeping his employer happy and go for his own chances in the classics, which might suit him better than this course.
In this "silly season" it is hard to predict which tactics is the best, whit all those compressed races. Several people on Astane wanted Fuglsang to only focus on the Giro - so everyone will probably have som kind of pressure from their employers.
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Let's not forget that Martínez was with MvdP and Trentin when they were bridging to the front trio last year and only was dropped at the last minute before the junction was made.
Also, Higuita has had a lot of injuries post-corona but should certainly become a great one day racer.
Speaking of Belgium, Lefevre is really petty. Not sending Devenyns to the WC because Remco isn't riding and not wanting an non- Quickstep Belgium to have a better chance...
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