Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia, Stage 20: Verbania – Alpe Motta 165 km

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WIll Bernal crack?

  • Yes, on the 1st climb

    Votes: 8 11.4%
  • Yes, on the penultimate climb

    Votes: 7 10.0%
  • Yes, on the final climb

    Votes: 10 14.3%
  • No, he will only lose a small amount of time at the end of the stage

    Votes: 34 48.6%
  • No, he will be able to follow his competitors

    Votes: 5 7.1%
  • No, he will destroy everyone

    Votes: 6 8.6%

  • Total voters
    70
  • Poll closed .
Why going for broke is not feasible.
in the case of Contador in 2012, Froome in 2018 and Nibali in 2016, they had all dropped time, had strong teams and the leader ahead of them had weak teams. It was easy for them to isolate the leaders with <2 teammates fairly quickly and /or put them into difficulty early on. Also the motivation in their case was that they did not care for the podium at all.
Yates and Caruso have lost 2 or more climbing domestiques already. They donot have the teams to do the impossible. Bernal has the strongest team for defending. Yates hasn't stood on the podium of a GT since 2018. Caruso has the opportunity of the lifetime. They are unlikely to do much. They will take advantage if Bernal cracks but they will not try to crack him with a long ranger.
I mean sure, that makes sense, but it's not the way I see it. Yates and White are gamblers, and this is a great stage to roll the dice. Yates is more than three minutes clear of Vlasov, and I can't see him losing more than 2s/km against him in Milan. Even if Yates gets reeled back in I'd wager he can hold Vlasov's wheel, probably even Carthy's. And he would have at least two minutes to play with on Vlasov and likely three on Carthy on a stage that features a fair bit of descending. Martinez is not about to be allowed to go for a podium right now. And I think at this point Almeida is more focused on getting a stage than just moving up on GC, though he might actually be the biggest threat to Yates's podium if he has a bad day.

But if Yates doesn't have great legs then there's no point. I don't think there's any chance of a Quintana-esque dig on mediocre legs and get blown out the back. Bernal and Caruso are both riding pretty well right now but at that point all you can do is hope they crack.

But if, on the other hand, he's feeling good then it's late enough in the game, his position is secure enough, and the stage is hard enough that its a more than worthwhile bet. Again, I think Yates needed to have kept his powder drier yesterday. And I see this going more the way of Quintana on Fosa or Schleck on Galibier than Froome on Jafferau. But this is cycling, for better or worse. And if Simon Yates thinks he's still got a bit of an edge left in his tibias on the early slopes of San Bernadino, we should be in for a fun one today.
 
Reactions: gregrowlerson
I still feel for Caruso that he's fulfilling the opportunity of a lifetime by even being on the podium. Who would have picked him to ever top 3 a GT? That felt unlikely as a younger rider, let alone at this stage of his career.

Of course the win would be incredible but I can't see him rolling the dice if it exposes him to risk. It's pretty inconceivable right now, but if he was to crack early himself he could see the podium slip through his hands and I'm pretty sure he'd look back on even 3rd with pride for the rest of his life (as he should)
His best bet for a win might be Yates attacking too early and Bernal cracking. It's far from impossible. I don't know how their time trialing measures up, however.
 
I can't get why they're unhappy with DQS sending a man up the road. Did they go to the Movistar school of cycling tactics?
The most likely reason is that they want to be the ones dictating when the action happens.

They probably have a plan for the day, but if DQS were to do something before that then it could blow things apart, write-off riders they'd planned to use earlier than expected and put the race into a situation where they're not able to help or support a Yates attempt.
 
The most likely reason is that they want to be the ones dictating when the action happens.

They probably have a plan for the day, but if DQS were to do something before that then it could blow things apart, write-off riders they'd planned to use earlier than expected and put the race into a situation where they're not able to help or support a Yates attempt.
They need allies. I think even Copeland mentioned that. Trade a stage win for help.
 
Reactions: BlueRoads

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