Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia, Stage 20: Verbania – Alpe Motta 165 km

[sir fly]

If the guys below the podium decide to try early, I'm not sure they'll be closely marked. More like kept in check.
And there's an interesting plot.

 

[Bonimenier]

If the guys below the podium decide to try early, I'm not sure they'll be closely marked. More like kept in check.
And there's an interesting plot.

I'm hoping that they'll try to go early, but realisticly the only one capable of doing it seems Almeida. The others were clearly weaker than the guys on the podium the last stages. And I feel like Almeida would probably prefer to win the stage over trying desperately to move up some place as 4th place in GC seems the highest possible outcome anyway. If he wins the stage, he'll likely be close enough to the 4th place anyway with the TT still coming.

 

[titan31]

Ya, you'd imagine Almeida could easily take a minute out of anyone ahead of him in GC on Sunday so if he takes a minute on Vlasov/Carthy etc tomorrow he'll likely end up in 4th. It's a shame the time he lost stages helping Remco but it was understandable why consider their relevant GC positions at the time. He could be riding for the win if it wasn't for those stages tbh considering the time he'll take out of Bernal in the TT

 

[sir fly]

I'm hoping that they'll try to go early, but realisticly the only one capable of doing it seems Almeida. The others were clearly weaker than the guys on the podium the last stages. And I feel like Almeida would probably prefer to win the stage over trying desperately to move up some place as 4th place in GC seems the highest possible outcome anyway. If he wins the stage, he'll likely be close enough to the 4th place anyway with the TT still coming.

All the guys below the podium would love to win a stage since the top 3 are out of their reach (barring an unexpected development).
Their best chance is to sort it out without the podium guys. Yates and Caruso might think about them as allies rather than opponents... a bridgable gap between, something like that.
With the tt on Sunday, Yates should try to overtake Caruso.

Plenty of subplots in circulation.

 

[hayneplane]

I would love this stage a heck of a lot more if the first 60km were chopped off. Ineos would find the race a lot harder to control if they were climbing almost straight out of the box and the breakaway was forming with strong climbers the aspiring GC guys could bridge to and set the race on fire.

Castroviejo did a very underrated turn today keeping the gap stable at under 30 seconds for a long time delaying and shortening the period where Bernal was isolated and exposed.

 

[sir fly]

I would love this stage a heck of a lot more if the first 60km were chopped off. Ineos would find the race a lot harder to control if they were climbing almost straight out of the box and the breakaway was forming with strong climbers the aspiring GC guys could bridge to and set the race on fire.

Castroviejo did a very underrated turn today keeping the gap stable at under 30 seconds for a long time delaying and shortening the period where Bernal was isolated and exposed.

The flat run-in for the rouleurs to break away, highland for climbers to hook up.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Yates can only win if Bernal really cracks. That's not impossible if he's suffering from his back, but unlikely. For Bernal just staying with Martínez and Castroviejo might be good enough to secure the pink. Yates has never done very well over 2000 m altitude. He's explosive, but he doesn't have the motor to take minutes in one stage.

I expect Nibali in the break again, but he'll have to hope that the GC candidates allow it to happen.

 

[johnymax]

Cheering for almeida! Hope he gets the so deserved stage tomorrow! Won't be easy but is shape is fantastic. I still can't believe how much did he improved this last year. One of the best talents of the world. As portuguese you can't imagine how happy I am. We never had a cyclist for GC. Rui Costa is great for classics and for individual stages.

Rui Costa was a great GC rider a couple of years ago, but for one week stage races. It's true, as far as GTs go, he doesn't come close to Almeida. But in short stage races it's the other way around. Almeida still has a long way to go to reach Costa's results. He has time, though, and I think he'll get there.

 

[johnymax]

I think it'll depend a lot on Castroviejo's and Moscon's daily form. If they are very strong like they have been in the larger part of the Giro, it'll be almost impossible to put Bernal in difficulty. But if they are dropped relatively early, that means Martinez will have to start working earlier than expected thus making Bernal more vulnerable to attacks from afar.

 

[PhiLiz]

Almeida will do a Froome 2018 and get himself in the podium after a 70km attack in San Bernardino. You can quote me later.

 

[Leinster]

I can't see any team on their current strength being strong enough by themselves to drop the likes of Narvaez, Castro and Moscon (and possibly Ganna) on San Bernardino. However, if they do manage to do that, they'll likely be leaving their leader isolated and Bernal will have Martinez. I think there are only two teams here who'll even try too with BikeExchange and QS who'll probably go all in for Almeida on the stage victory again. If Bahrain had Mohoric and Mader here, I could see them trying something but as now it's just Bilbao with Caruso, they'll just be in defence mode unless Bernal cracks.

The other option that Quickstep have, of course, is to have Cavagna drill it for the first 80km. If the whole peloton is lined out all the way to the foot of San Bernardino, Martinez and Castro might be knackered by the time their turn comes in the choo-choo.

This option would suit expert TTer Almeida more than Yates, obviously.

 

[johnymax]

Almeida will do a Froome 2018 and get himself in the podium after a 70km attack in San Bernardino. You can quote me later.

Thanks. I just did.

 

[roundabout]

The other option that Quickstep have, of course, is to have Cavagna drill it for the first 80km. If the whole peloton is lined out all the way to the foot of San Bernardino, Martinez and Castro might be knackered by the time their turn comes in the choo-choo.

This option would suit expert TTer Almeida more than Yates, obviously.

why would an ITT Worlds medalist be knackered

 

[Leinster]

why would an ITT Worlds medalist be knackered

Because he's 34? I don't know, don't make me think my strategy all the way through. This is the internet.

 

[carton]

Because he's 34? I don't know, don't make me think my strategy all the way through. This is the internet.

Bernal is effing good on the flats. Castroviejo, Moscon, Narvaez: these are guys you would love to have on your Roubaix team. Even Dani Martinez is the two-time defending Colombian ITT champion. Which is not quite as easy as the internet would think. You can surely drop Carthy and friends, but then you're going to have to ride hard against Bettiol & Co., and why do that, when you have one of the best climbers going. They are just going to give him another shot. If Yates can get a good gap on Bernal (or vice-versa) they won't care one lick (and neither would Caruso if it comes to that) about dragging Almeida to a stage win.

Bike Exchange have to push the pace all the way today, and let Yates go for broke. Simple as. Hard as.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Why going for broke is not feasible.
in the case of Contador in 2012, Froome in 2018 and Nibali in 2016, they had all dropped time, had strong teams and the leader ahead of them had weak teams. It was easy for them to isolate the leaders with <2 teammates fairly quickly and /or put them into difficulty early on. Also the motivation in their case was that they did not care for the podium at all.
Yates and Caruso have lost 2 or more climbing domestiques already. They donot have the teams to do the impossible. Bernal has the strongest team for defending. Yates hasn't stood on the podium of a GT since 2018. Caruso has the opportunity of the lifetime. They are unlikely to do much. They will take advantage if Bernal cracks but they will not try to crack him with a long ranger.

 

[railxmig]

The descent from Spluga is not that technical barring the first 3k to the lake. Compared with the side they'll be climbing it's rather easy. After a 5k flatish part the rest is not that difficult in terms of switchbacks. There's however a very long and quite narrow part in a bunch of galleries (not the art ones). The longest is 850m long.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Contador: The second place is no good.

Caruso: Even when I am sitting on the beach, I have had to hold my own umbrella. Allow me to have my one moment in the sun.

 

[Salvarani]

If I were Caruso and felt I had a little bit more energy to spend. I would at least try. Like someone said, opportunity of a lifetime.

Same with Yates. You dont get a shot at something more than a couple of times in your career, if you are lucky. He has only gotten better as the race has progressed.

Seconds could be gained/lost fast depending on how each goes today.

It is a threeway-battle with one clear favorite in pole position. It is not over until it is over and stranger things has happened. At least that is why I will be watching to see what happens.

 

[Eclipse]

If I were Caruso and felt I had a little bit more energy to spend. I would at least try. Like someone said, opportunity of a lifetime.

I still feel for Caruso that he's fulfilling the opportunity of a lifetime by even being on the podium. Who would have picked him to ever top 3 a GT? That felt unlikely as a younger rider, let alone at this stage of his career.

Of course the win would be incredible but I can't see him rolling the dice if it exposes him to risk. It's pretty inconceivable right now, but if he was to crack early himself he could see the podium slip through his hands and I'm pretty sure he'd look back on even 3rd with pride for the rest of his life (as he should)

 

[roundabout]

How strong is the wind forecast? In some places i've seen headwind on San Bernardino and the last climb up to Madesimo and tailwind on the Splügenpass and last climb after Madesimo

 

[CyclistAbi]

Enough of the monkey business, lets see who is the rightful owner of maglia rosa.

 

[Salvarani]

I still feel for Caruso that he's fulfilling the opportunity of a lifetime by even being on the podium. Who would have picked him to ever top 3 a GT? That felt unlikely as a younger rider, let alone at this stage of his career.

Of course the win would be incredible but I can't see him rolling the dice if it exposes him to risk. It's pretty inconceivable right now, but if he was to crack early himself he could see the podium slip through his hands and I'm pretty sure he'd look back on even 3rd with pride for the rest of his life (as he should)

Yeah, it would be huge achievement just to be on the podium. I wasnt knocking that. Thought I didn’t have to say that.

But since he is there. Might as well give it all if he has the legs and some more energy compared to others in the end. All I said, and if he go through the stage and not crack and finish on the podium it is great.

 

[limak_]

Assuming that after today's stage there won't be any siginificant changes in the top3 of GC.

Is Caruso able to pull a Pogacar on Sunday?

 

[Red Rick]

Assuming that after today's stage there won't be any siginificant changes in the top3 of GC.

Is Caruso able to pull a Pogacar on Sunday?

I doubt Pogacar could pull a Pogacar on the Milano ITT parcours.