Giro d'Italia 2021 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Escarabajo]

Are we only talking about GC riders here?
Sagan should like the stage. I guess Quinten Hermans might do well too, considering his CX background.
I'd pick Bardet and Bernal among GC riders.

Most in danger: Dan Martin? Remco? Maybe Carthy?

Add Landa to the bolded. What about Simon? I don't expect him to do great.
My opinion is that INEOS will try to kill the race here.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Add Landa to the bolded. What about Simon? I don't expect him to do great.
My opinion is that INEOS will try to kill the race here.

I agree, the only stage I fear for Landa is the gravel. Yates raced Strade so I think he will go ok, Landa should have done the same.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Who do you think will handle the gravel best? Nibali should be alright if he's alright. I guess Bernal with not too much pain should be the favourite, since he's an ex-mtb and did great in Strade Bianche? Bardet should be among the better ones, too?
Who else? Who's most in danger?

After what he showed in Strade, Bilbao should be alright as well, if he'll be allowed to race for himself.

 

[Laplaz]

Formolo said he is going for the the maglia rosa, so he should be one of the best GC guys on the gravel.

 

[BlueRoads]

Formolo said he is going for the the maglia rosa, so he should be one of the best GC guys on the gravel.

Lol, who's on the startlist and not going for GC? Groenewegen. Ewan. Kluge. Anyone else? (Ah, right, Mollema has said he's only stage-hunting...)

 

[Laplaz]

Lol, who's on the startlist and not going for GC? Groenewegen. Ewan. Kluge. Anyone else? (Ah, right, Mollema has said he's only stage-hunting...)

You forgot Pozzovivo. He wants to just win a few stages in Giro and then go big for the maillot jaune.

 

[search]

You forgot Pozzovivo. He wants to just win a few stages in Giro and then go big for the maillot jaune.

because of the after effects of his operation? Didn't see an interview with him so far.

Trek actually sends an amazing stage hunting team, by the way. I can see them winning quite a lot - with or without Nibali getting back in shape

 

[johnymax]

I agree, the only stage I fear for Landa is the gravel. Yates raced Strade so I think he will go ok, Landa should have done the same.

Why? Landa has his most epic career moment on the gravel. On Finestre when he flew away from Contador.

 

[johnymax]

It's funny how Hndley and Almeida are hardly among the favorites, in spite of finishing second and third last year.

And that's a mistake to write them off imo. Almeida is a dog. He'll fight till the end. He won't be the best climber in the race, but you can't get rid of him that easily. He has a strong supporting team and if Remco is also going well, they can maybe take the 1a, 1b approach.

Hindley has shown this season more than anything he showed before Giro 2020. I have a feeling he is a classic GT kind of rider. He won't win short stage races, but in GTs he'll be up there. I think he can elevate his form in GTs, similar to Carapaz for example. And with Bardet they can form a very strong duo.

Honestly, other than having Yates as a #1 favourite (and even him not without question marks), I have no clue who will do well and who will flop. All I know is there are 10-15 riders who can all end up on the podium. I just hope for good racing.

 

[Escarabajo]

Nobody is writing off Almeida. That is not true. I have seen him in many lists. Hindley yes. Along with Dan Martin. But not Almeida.

 

[42x16ss]

If he doesn't, it will be "proof" of something.
If he does win, it'll be "proof" of something else.

Or

some of us just have realistic expectations of a 21 yo rider who has never even started a GT and hasn't raced in over 9 months due to major injury...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Apparently Johan Bruyneel has come across some info, that makes him doubt Bernal. As a result, he doesn't see Bernal on the podium. Had he not heard that information, he would have put Bernal at #1. Take it for what it is.

Or

some of us just have realistic expectations of a 21 yo rider who has never even started a GT and hasn't raced in over 9 months due to major injury...

I hope it will be more than some. My comment was a response to "looking for evidence" of what he's capable of. He's only 21 and has proven to be capable of more than any 21 year old has shown in the past 30 odd years, save Pogacar. People for whom he still has to prove himself, are more likely to be the same people who will find refuge in another mindtrap as soon as he does. Same with people moving goalposts. "We'll see when he rides with the pros, that'll be a different matter". Remco wins BBT. "We'll see when he faces real competition". Remco wins San Sebastian. "We'll see when he can outclimb top tier climbers". Remco beats Landa, Yates, Carapaz, Küss, Gaudu... "Yeah, but it wasn't Worldtour". etc...
It was not meant as a generalization or a dig at the Hegelian. Simply that it doesn't seem to matter whatever he proves, it will never be enough for some people, untill there's nothing left to prove... then he'll probably have proven too much.

 

[42x16ss]

Are we only talking about GC riders here?
Sagan should like the stage. I guess Quinten Hermans might do well too, considering his CX background.
I'd pick Bardet and Bernal among GC riders.

Most in danger: Dan Martin? Remco? Maybe Carthy?

Bennett should be good amongst the GC guys, he's done a good amount of gravel riding back home in NZ

 

[42x16ss]

Apparently Johan Bruyneel has come across some info, that makes him doubt Bernal. As a result, he doesn't see Bernal on the podium. Had he not heard that information, he would have put Bernal at #1. Take it for what it is.

I despise Bruyneel with a passion, he's scum, but he also knows a LOT about the sport. Chances are he's correct.

 

[The Hegelian]

Apparently Johan Bruyneel has come across some info, that makes him doubt Bernal. As a result, he doesn't see Bernal on the podium. Had he not heard that information, he would have put Bernal at #1. Take it for what it is.



I hope it will be more than some. My comment was a response to "looking for evidence" of what he's capable of. He's only 21 and has proven to be capable of more than any 21 year old has shown in the past 30 odd years, save Pogacar. People for whom he still has to prove himself, are more likely to be the same people who will find refuge in another mindtrap as soon as he does. Same with people moving goalposts. "We'll see when he rides with the pros, that'll be a different matter". Remco wins BBT. "We'll see when he faces real competition". Remco wins San Sebastian. "We'll see when he can outclimb top tier climbers". Remco beats Landa, Yates, Carapaz, Küss, Gaudu... "Yeah, but it wasn't Worldtour". etc...
It was not meant as a generalization or a dig at the Hegelian. Simply that it doesn't seem to matter whatever he proves, it will never be enough for some people, untill there's nothing left to prove... then he'll probably have proven too much.

It's not moving the goalposts to think: a GT is a very different kettle of fish to everything else. Because: it is!

It's just simple prudence to watch him in his very first one to see how he goes, with an open mind, before making any judgements.

There have been so many super classy riders who just didn't have the physiology to handle the 3rd week of a grand tour. You never know until you do it - some get better, some just can't handle it. Facts are no one, not even Remco himself, has this knowledge yet.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's not moving the goalposts to think: a GT is a very different kettle of fish to everything else. Because: it is!

It's just simple prudence to watch him in his very first one to see how he goes, with an open mind, before making any judgements.

There have been so many super classy riders who just didn't have the physiology to handle the 3rd week of a grand tour. You never know until you do it - some get better, some just can't handle it. Facts are no one, not even Remco himself, has this knowledge yet.

I don't disagree with any of that. But it's like his under some obligation to prove what he has, and prove it fast. Mentioning "evidence/proof" kind of suggests the anticipation. Like you said, he's 21. And yet he's proven so much already that apparently it's become normal to anticipate him proving more. And what if he doesn't? What will be the consensus? Will he be getting the time to develop, or will it/he be a failure?

 

[42x16ss]

I don't disagree with any of that. But it's like his under some obligation to prove what he has, and prove it fast. Mentioning "evidence/proof" kind of suggests the anticipation. Like you said, he's 21. And yet he's proven so much already that apparently it's become normal to anticipate him proving more. And what if he doesn't? What will be the consensus? Will he be getting the time to develop, or will it/he be a failure?

He'll be getting time to develop, Evenepoel is looking more and more like a once in a generation talent. Hopefully he continues to develop and not fizz out from expectation.

 

[The Hegelian]

I don't disagree with any of that. But it's like his under some obligation to prove what he has, and prove it fast. Mentioning "evidence/proof" kind of suggests the anticipation. Like you said, he's 21. And yet he's proven so much already that apparently it's become normal to anticipate him proving more. And what if he doesn't? What will be the consensus? Will he be getting the time to develop, or will it/he be a failure?

Yes, also if he doesn't do well in this Giro people will speculate about the crash. Maybe he will never reach the promised heights, and people will forever debate 'what if he didn't crash off a bridge'?

But you know, part of the joy of being a sports fan is speculating on this or that.

 

[Sciatic]

He'll be getting time to develop, Evenepoel is looking more and more like a once in a generation talent. Hopefully he continues to develop and not fizz out from expectation.

Perhaps "twice in a generation talent"? There is, after all, that other young fellow who won the Tour and a few other things.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Evenepoel, if he can stay on his bike. Even without the weight loss it would have been a walkover. The high and medium mountain stages suit him very well, IMO.

 

[42x16ss]

Perhaps "twice in a generation talent"? There is, after all, that other young fellow who won the Tour and a few other things.

Looking at the performance Evenepoel showed as a junior there may be potential to be better again. But he's not there yet

 

[Roku]

If Remco is at 95% of his 2020 level, there is no one capable to stop him.

A healthy Bernal would be his biggest (and only) rival.

Yates lacks endurance and consistency. He will have a subpar stage when he will probably lose the podium if race is ridden hard. Landa as a GC winner is a joke. Best case scenario he finishes 3rd, and I'm not so sure about that. I would bet on Vlasov finishing higher than him, who IMHO is the most likely dark horse.

As for the rest. Carthy is good for the podium, but I think he will suffer in Strade Bianche roads. Buchmann had a quiet approach, but i rate him as a decent bet for Top 5. Almeida will be up there, with the TT and Steratto playing in his favor, but has to limit his losses in the High Mountains.

All in all:

5* Evenepoel
4* Bernal, Yates
3* Almeida, Carthy, Vlasov,
2* Landa, Buchmann, Hindley
1* Sivakov

IMHO, Dan Martin is not suited to Giro, Nibali is past his prime and there is his wrist issue.

The others (Formolo, Bennett, Bilbao, Soler) are fringe Top10 riders with this field.

 

[spalco]

Apparently Johan Bruyneel has come across some info, that makes him doubt Bernal. As a result, he doesn't see Bernal on the podium. Had he not heard that information, he would have put Bernal at #1. Take it for what it is.

For the record, because I just listened to it too. Bruyneel goes with Remco for the win and Yates and Landa on the podium for whatever it's worth. He thinks Evenepoel is there physically and will improve from week to week, and he speculates that Yates is coming into the Giro too hot.

 

[Publiuszam]

For the record, because I just listened to it too. Bruyneel goes with Remco for the win and Yates and Landa on the podium for whatever it's worth. He thinks Evenepoel is there physically and will improve from week to week, and he speculates that Yates is coming into the Giro too hot.

Where? lance"s podcast?

 

[spalco]

Where? lance"s podcast?

I don't know if it belongs to Armstrong, but yes,

https://soundcloud.com/user-411867241%2F2021-giro-ditalia-preview-show

View: https://soundcloud.com/user-411867241/2021-giro-ditalia-preview-show