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2021 Trentino European Championships 8-12 September

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BlueRoads

BlueRoads

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Mayomaniac said:
Francesco Moser thinks that the circuit should suit Ganna and that a late attack from him is a legit option.
Italy should have either Ulissi or Bagioli constantly marking Remco.
Click to expand...

After that one bigger climb it really looks like a perfect course for rouleurs. I suppose if Ganna reaches the finish line with Evenepoel he should have the better sprint as well... But in the men's race, if it becomes an attacking race many tactical situations can evolve which could make a relative outsider win. Still, Italy has an abundance of options, the chances for them to have the winner among them are high.

The French could have a good outside bet with Cosnefroy, if guys like Ganna and Evenepoel don't manage to escape.
 
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Mayomaniac

Mayomaniac

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BlueRoads said:
After that one bigger climb it really looks like a perfect course for rouleurs. I suppose if Ganna reaches the finish line with Evenepoel he should have the better sprint as well... But in the men's race, if it becomes an attacking race many tactical situations can evolve which could make a relative outsider win. Still, Italy has an abundance of options, the chances for them to have the winner among them are high.

The French could have a good outside bet with Cosnefroy, if guys like Ganna and Evenepoel don't manage to escape.
Click to expand...
Nearly all of the Italians should beat Remco in a sprint, that also includes Moscon and Aleotti. He pretty much has to arrive solo to win this one.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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I don't think this route is great for rouleurs in that the climb is still relatively big compared to the flats in the circuit. It just makes a small group sprint very likely to me.

The thing that will make it selective is that you have a guy like Pogacar drilling it and just not looking back.
 
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BlueRoads

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Red Rick said:
I don't think this route is great for rouleurs in that the climb is still relatively big compared to the flats in the circuit. It just makes a small group sprint very likely to me.

The thing that will make it selective is that you have a guy like Pogacar drilling it and just not looking back.
Click to expand...

I don't know, so far the races have been absolutely non-selective, and if that would be the route for today I think it would be a bunch sprint. However there is this early climb, and the real sprinters will be out. Everyone else will survive, I think, especially with Italy, the strongest team, having good options for the sprint. I think in championships the climbs are often over-estimated, usually somehow more guys manage to survive than one would think.
Pogacar is also not in best-form I suppose, can't see him getting rid of well-climbing rouleurs there. If anything, like I said, I can see a tactical situation arising in which some riders with good chances just stay behind.

Slovenia will certainly ride for Mohoric.
 
Hugo Koblet

Hugo Koblet

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Mayomaniac said:
Francesco Moser thinks that the circuit should suit Ganna and that a late attack from him is a legit option.
Italy should have either Ulissi or Bagioli constantly marking Remco.
Click to expand...
I think that Ulissi and Bagioli aren't the best options for that. I agree with the idea of man marking Evenepoel, but I'd rather have someone with a big engine doing that because, as you mention, nearly everyone will beat Evenepoel in a head to head sprint. Have Cattaneo, Trentin or Moscon, who have better chances of following Evenepoel, mark him instead.
 
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BlueRoads

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Hugo Koblet said:
I think that Ulissi and Bagioli aren't the best options for that. I agree with the idea of man marking Evenepoel, but I'd rather have someone with a big engine doing that, because as you mention, nearly everyone will beat Evenepoel in a head to head sprint. Have Cattaneo, Trentin or Moscon, who have better chances of following Evenepoel, mark him instead.
Click to expand...

Why not Ganna himself? Or at least Moscon... about the others, I would fear they mark him but simply lose his wheel.
 
Red Rick

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Mayomaniac said:
His performance from the breakaway in the RVV suggests that his engine is fine, but his w/kg on longer climbs are probably not that good.
Click to expand...
He finished minutes down in de Ronde?

Anyway browsing through his results I don't see any stage with a selection made on hills where he didn't finish in the bottom half of the peloton 5 minutes+ down. Any engine he has here would be very little use.
 
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