Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Budapest – Visegrád 195 km (Friday, May 6th)

[Põhja Konn]

Unless MVDP is too far off his best form, it is difficult to see past him on this finish. Ewan is very good in uphill sprints, but at gradients of 5-6%, I'm not sure he's actually faster than MVDP, even without the 5k long drag at similar gradients preceding the finishing sprint.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Does anyone give the breakaway any chance here? Maybe not many teams want to work if they assume MVDP has this? Or do too many riders want to keep things close, believing they can take pink in the ITT?

How often does the breakaway succeed on the first road stage of a grand tour?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

How often does the breakaway succeed on the first road stage of a grand tour?

Don't think it's happened this century.

 

[steffr222]

Does anyone give the breakaway any chance here? Maybe not many teams want to work if they assume MVDP has this? Or do too many riders want to keep things close, believing they can take pink in the ITT?

How often does the breakaway succeed on the first road stage of a grand tour?

I can‘t see a breakaway win in the first stage of a GT. Peloton will be really, really fast - a breakaway win is too risky for almost every team anyway during a that early stage of a GT… can‘t remember such an early breakaway win tbh

 

[Red Rick]

Don't think it's happened this century.

Postlberger?

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Postlberger?

That was the Dauphine.

 

[Netserk]

That was the Dauphine.

Giro, but in the last km.

Vuelta 2019, 2005 and 2003 had late attackers win.

 

[Fantastico]

Don't think it's happened this century.

For the true first stage, it didn't. Apart from a few uphill finishes in the Tour or Vuelta, which created some gaps, the last time a solist won the first stage was when Moreno Argentin won the first Giro stage in 1993. But I'm not sure if that was from a break or a late attack.

For the first road stage, it's different, as @Netserk already mentioned. But in both cases, there was a time trial before that, so I guess that less teams where interested in the chase. And in both cases, the stage finish was quite hilly.

What actually suprised me when looking this up was that in this century the Giro only started with a road stage three times (2017, 2013, 2003).

 

[search]

Giro, but in the last km.

Vuelta 2019, 2005 and 2003 had late attackers win.

The Tour as well in 2002 (Bertogliati), although that was Stage 1 after a prologue. Can't remember any day 1 winners from an early breakaway either. Must be a long time ago.

 

[Netserk]

"First road stage" excludes TTs. Then it's where the line is drawn between attackers and breakaways.

 

[hayneplane]

Ineos will want to ride hard at the front to string things out and make it less chaotic for their GC riders. Carapaz is a viable outsider for the stage if the climb is ridden hard from the bottom to top but I think GC is all they will think of.

I wouldn't rule out someone like a Valter or Poels getting away who nobody will worry about for the GC top 5 long term but who climb well enough to potentially survive 2km solo if the bunch hesitate and all look to Alpecin Fenix to control things.

 

[search]

I wouldn't rule out someone like a Valter or Poels getting away who nobody will worry about for the GC top 5 long term but who climb well enough to potentially survive 2km solo if the bunch hesitate and all look to Alpecin Fenix to control things.

Maybe, yeah. Alpecin isn't confirmed yet, but looks likely to be a pretty poor team, and with some guys just coming back from injury (Riesebeek, and Kuba, if he starts at all. Krieger won't be around either from the provisional list)

 

[Red Rick]

Theres not gonna be no teams controlling the final climb just because MvdP is there. Ineos will just drill to have Carapaz in position regardless.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

+all other gc teams

and you can forget about a break. That barely ever happens, regardless if there's a major favorite or not.

 

[Bonimenier]

Magnus Cort going to complete the GT stage trilogy on stage 1.

 

[Oliver]

Van Der Poel vs Girmay

 

[Kaptain Kool]

+all other gc teams

and you can forget about a break. That barely ever happens, regardless if there's a major favorite or not.

Yeah, it's actually more likely MvdP gets dropped because the pace is too high rather than the 0% chance of all teams sitting back and leaving control only to Alpecin-Fenix.

 

[Sciatic]

I can‘t see a breakaway win in the first stage of a GT. Peloton will be really, really fast - a breakaway win is too risky for almost every team anyway during a that early stage of a GT… can‘t remember such an early breakaway win tbh

I agree. There’s the double value on Stage 1 of not only getting the stage win but also the pink jersey.

 

[Remy55]

I just hope for no crashes, every team will try to be in front before the „climb“.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Eclipse]

I like Ulissi for it.

It's surely a massive target for him having never worn pink and he's running out of chances for that to happen. I think the climb is long enough to actually drain enough out of the real power guys finishes despite the day not being too hard before hand.

It's a similar finish to the one he won in 2020, just unfortunately for him that was stage 2 so no pink.

I also expect to see a GC guy or two up there. Might even see Almeida lead out Ulissi.

 

[Jacques (7 ch)]

Not sure about the win but Attila Valter simply has to be in the break.

 

[search]

Not sure about the win but Attila Valter simply has to be in the break.

I think he'll wait for the finish. He said he's going all out for the victory at home, and would chose it over another week in pink.

It's still hard to see it happen from the peloton, of course, but more likely than from the breakaway. There are still Fetter and Peak for that one

 

[Jacques (7 ch)]

I think he'll wait for the finish. He said he's going all out for the victory at home, and would chose it over another week in pink.

It's still hard to see it happen from the peloton, of course, but more likely than from the breakaway. There are still Fetter and Peak for that one

old joke (first heard in relation to London buses): you wait ages to find a Hungarian in the peloton and then three come along at once …

Separate point: I don’t see this as a sprinters stage: I can’t see many sprinters with even small trains leading it up the Visegrad climb. It has the feel of TdF stage 1 last year, with the puncheurs jostling for position as the climb approaches, and then someone tries to jump. Or the final climbs of MSR.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Interesting that this is a full-points stage (and #8 as well). Looks likely to be a big blow to every sprinter's Ciclamino ambitions.

Tbf which sprinter is even going to stay after week two? As I see it, MVDP is favorite for this stage as well as the Ciclamino if he really wants to finish as he claimed.