Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 15: Rivarolo Canavese – Cogne 177 km (Sunday, May 22nd)

[Red Rick]

The plot twist is going to be that Almeida attacks the final climb as the steep bits end and sets a diesel tempo nobody can close on the 4% stretch

He doesn't get a gap on the first half anyway.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I hope they'll one year have a descent finish to Aosta, my favourite design has been Saint-Panthaléon -> Champremier -> Saint-Barthélémy -> Aosta.

Last year the Giro della Valle d'Aosta had a pretty cool finish, look at Terreblanche and everything afterwards.

I would't mind a big MTF on Pila on one day, then a transfer via the Mont Blanc tunnel and Chamonix - Aosta over the Grand Bernard the next day. You could even add a medium mountain climb after the Grand Bernard before the downhill finish in Aosta.
https://www.cronoescalada.com//tracks/viewTour/755601
My other idea would be a downhill finish in Brusson after a stage like this:

https://www.cronoescalada.com/tracks/view/747907

 

[Breezy1985]

The descents in Italy are just unbelievable.

Perfect for an agile shark

 

[YavorD]

Almeida is really confusing. Wasn't he a rider who could regularly top 5 a small group sprints? How can he miss so much explosiveness? Or is he just saying to himself "naah, just riding steady 20 kph, don't give a **** about all the attacks"?

About tomorrow's stage, last climb is really weird. The only chance I see for a meaningful gaps is if someone has hard time on Vertogne, which is not unlikely given today's stage.
Buchmann is an interesting card to play though. Maybe he can attack on the last climb if Carapaz is a bit isolated. Cogne should be good for him as well I think?

 

[Extinction]

Almeida is really confusing. Wasn't he a rider who could regularly top 5 a small group sprints? How can he miss so much explosiveness? Or is he just saying to himself "naah, just riding steady 20 kph, don't give a **** about all the attacks"?

About tomorrow's stage, last climb is really weird. The only chance I see for a meaningful gaps is if someone has hard time on Vertogne, which is not unlikely given today's stage.
Buchmann is an interesting card to play though. Maybe he can attack on the last climb if Carapaz is a bit isolated. Cogne should be good for him as well I think?

Yea, I tend to think tomorrow is a stage for the break, because the GC leaders will be keeping their powder dry for Tuesday.

 

[staubsauger]

Yea, I tend to think tomorrow is a stage for the break, because the GC leaders will be keeping their powder dry for Tuesday.

Isn't Mortirolo way too far away from the finish nowadays for long range attacks?

 

[Extinction]

Isn't Mortirolo way too far away from the finish nowadays for long range attacks?

Isn't it the usual Mortirolo-Aprica jaunt to the finish? If so, then whoever gets a gap on Mortirolo will be dangerous, as on Aprica it will be hard, if not impossible, to get back on terms.

 

[Red Rick]

Isn't Mortirolo way too far away from the finish nowadays for long range attacks?

It's the dank Mortirolo side. Sante Cristina is less hard than that.

And it's a short descent before the final km is uphill maybe?

 

[YavorD]

Isn't Mortirolo way too far away from the finish nowadays for long range attacks?

3 other problems with long range attacks on Mortirolo:

1. Too close GC. Unless we get some more carnage tomorrow
2. Too tough last climbs. Santa Cristina is harder than (this side of) Mortirolo. And you even have Teglio before that.
3. As mentioned in 2, "easy" side of Mortirolo

Yea, I tend to think tomorrow is a stage for the break, because the GC leaders will be keeping their powder dry for Tuesday.

Don't think it will be because of Tuesday, rest day in Monday after all. It's jut that Cogne is false flat in the last 14 km and you're missing a Mortirolo/Stelvio/Finestre kind of climb before.

 

[staubsauger]

It's 71.9 kilometres from Mortirolo til the finish compared to 45 kilometers in 1994.

 

[Ricco']

My go-to weather site has showers for tomorrow afternoon in the area of the stage. Is that reliable?

Also, heavy storms forecasted for tuesday in the area the stage will run.

 

[HelloDolly]

Well I would say G Martin will be in the break tomorrow but the first 90 KMs are flat and hard for a climber to get away on that terrain
Its a strange stage in that respect

As for GC Carapaz will sit on the INEOS train
Up to the others to try something
Looking to Landa to try if he can ...maybe Bahrain can put a rider up the road ??
I think a break will take the stage ..a rider who can grind it out up the climbs but have power to get in the break ...Carthy , Formolo, Taarame, Mollema

 

[HelloDolly]

My go-to weather site has showers for tomorrow afternoon in the area of the stage. Is that reliable?

Also, heavy storms forecasted for tuesday in the area the stage will run.

Ooooh shark weather

 

[groogster]

This should suit him much better than todays stage yes.

As far as he can be with the front group after those 2 descents yes i believe it's a more suitable climb for him. The problem nowadays with Almeida are the descents, he's worse than Dani Martinez!

 

[Tonton]

Meh, terrible finish for a Sunday, before rest day. Without making it so hard that it would have affected today's race strategies, give me something maybe shorter, but steeper in the end. The kind that Simon wins. With gaps of twenty seconds to forty-five seconds to the GC guys, thickening the plot before rest day. Small shuffle, but shuffle nonetheless.

The break should take it. I would put my dollar on De Gendt. When he saw the design he saw the opportunity. Will he go for it?

GC no action, I'm afraid.

 

[fbjim]

I think the most likely GC "action" is seeing which fringe guy 15+ miutes down will be allowed in the break.

 

[gregrowlerson]

There's going to be a whole lot of tired legs tomorrow.

This feels like it's either going to be carnage with people hurting each other from a long long way out or a bit of a nothing with everyone content to follow a steady train

This.

If there wasn't a rest day tomorrow then 99% sure the latter, but there is a rest day tomorrow.

And they rode extremely hard yesterday (and it was hot). Well, at least the main contenders did.

Richie Porte finished half an hour back. Maybe he'll turn back the clock one more time. AX3 Domaines/PSM vibes.

 

[The Barb]

The 90km of flat to start makes the break hard to predict but ...

Maybe I'm biased because his earlier stage win was lucrative, but why wouldn't Bouwman win again?

He is highly motivated for not just the stage but for KOTM.
His strength on the flat gives him a better chance than most of making the break,
He also has some big engines (Van Emden and Affini) to help him get into the break on the flat.
He's taken it easy in recent days.
If he's part of a small group sprint it is unlikely anyone will be faster than him.

What worries me a bit would be a scenario where there is a small group on the final climb and everyone attacks each other.

The way I always look at it is (chance of him making the break) x (chance of the break surviving) x (chance of him winning from the break). The figures are highly subjective, and dependent on who the other riders in the break will be, but my best estimates are 0.3 x 0.8 x 0.25 = 0.06, therefore basically making him a 16-1 chance of winning the stage (current price around 22-1).

Arensman is the other one I like, now that he is totally freed up. But his price is shorter than Bouwman and he isn't as fast in a finish.

As an aside, I think this is the decisive stage for KOTM. I'm sure KOTM will be won by a non-GC rider, of whom the leading three are Rosa on 92, Bouwman on 69 and Kamna on 43. But there are huge points on this stage, with two Cat 1s (40, 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 2, 1) and a Cat 2 finish (18, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1).

The big advantage Bouwman has over his two main rivals is his kick. If Bouwman is in the break then he is highly likely to take maximum points on the first climb and probably the second.

I've therefore had a good crack at him for KOTM at 4-1.

 

[Savant12]

How many times can Almeida yo-yo back before the string snaps?

 

[groogster]

How many times can Almeida yo-yo back before the string snaps?

infinite yo-yoing loop

 

[Cookster15]

Bora must have big confidence in Hindley's form to have ridden like today. So far so good. I'm worried about Almeida after today though, he might crack although just maybe the shorter more explosive stage doesn't suit him as well as longer diesel climbs? But then there is his descending which is costing him additional energy. But personally I think it would be nice if he can bounce back on the shallower final kilometers to Cogne.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Nothing is happening on that final climb if the favourites reach it together. It has to splinter on the Verronge.

 

[SafeBet]

If one strong team wants to make sure Almeida is out of contention by the third week this is a good stage to try. Those descents are tricky.
Luckily for him it should be sunny today.

Break has the advantage. Ineos is the perfect team to keep a group under control and will not mind having someone ahead take the bonifications (since Hindley has shown to be pretty quick on the line).

 

[movingtarget]

The final climb is disappointing.. GC riders outside the top 10 should be motivated. Don't know if this will be enough to shake up up the top 5 riders but Almeida can't afford any mistakes, he'll be chasing back enough after descents anyway especially if some of the descents are really attacked.

 

[Extinction]

Don't think it will be because of Tuesday, rest day in Monday after all. It's jut that Cogne is false flat in the last 14 km and you're missing a Mortirolo/Stelvio/Finestre kind of climb before.

I would agree, were it not for the fact that yesterday was just brutal and for the three previous stages the average speed was +45 ks per hour, a record in the Giro, and thus there will be some exceptionally tired legs in the peleton. Finally, from Tues till Sun it is practically all mountains. For this reason, the rest day I think is less consequential than what came before and what comes after it in terms of how the riders will comport themselves today. Of course, I hope I'm wrong and that someone high up in GC will have a go on the penultimate climb, such as Landa or Nibali, but I'm not holding my breath and rather perceive a break ahead with Ineos back to setting a high-tempo uphill pace, in control mode with Carapez in pink.