Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia, Stage 4: Avola – Etna 170 km (Tuesday, May 10th)

[Lequack]

Will sprinters give up right at the beginning of the stage?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Looking at the parcours and the history, this looks like a perfect day for the breakaway with 15-20 riders finishing together in the favorites group. In other words: I don't expect much if any action between the GC riders. Skjelmose for the win!

 

[SafeBet]

I don't get all the pessimism about this stage.
Etna hasn't been particularly selective in the past few years but neither it has been an uphill sprint.

2020: the 10th best GC rider was almost a minute behind the first.
2018: Chaves and (later) Yates attacking and finishing almost 30" before a group of 8.
2017: the closest I can think of a group ride, but you still had Zakarin attacking in the final kms and gaining 10".

It really depends on how strong the wind blows and how the top GC riders feel. Someone like Yates will 100% give it a go if he can.

 

[staubsauger]

I don't get all the pessimism about this stage.
Etna hasn't been particularly selective in the past few years but neither it has been an uphill sprint.

2020: the 10th best GC rider was almost a minute behind the first.
2018: Chaves and (later) Yates attacking and finishing almost 30" before a group of 8.
2017: the closest I can think of a group ride, but you still had Zakarin attacking in the final kms and gaining 10".

It really depends on how strong the wind blows and how the top GC riders feel. Someone like Yates will 100% give it a go if he can.

I guess it's probably because Etna has been completely overused in recent years. Without any real relevance.

2017 somehow is cemented in people's heads as a bore fest.
2018 was pretty good actually.
2020 was more than decent. Kelderman attacked. Yates imploded. Kruijswijk lost time. Thomas was hors de combat already. So seemed Tao.

With Blockhaus on Sunday I expect this to be a stage for the breakaway group.

Actually I kinda hope for no gc action today, because then they need to go hard on Blockhaus.

 

[SafeBet]

I guess it's probably because Etna has been completely overused in recent years.

And that I agree with.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

And that I agree with.

Indeed. It's only been 25 days since Caruso won here in Giro di Sicilia.

 

[Lequack]

Do riders still have to do corona tests?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Is the Etna Road today new.? I can't find it on maps

 

[gregrowlerson]

This looks like a stage that everyone and their grandmother wants to win, and probably could. I mean, there are 50-60 riders who if they win the stage, we'll go, "Yeah I could see that happening".

Breakaway is probably about a 40% chance to succeed.

Of the GC riders I doubt that Carapaz will win the stage. Most riders are unpredictable, but one of the most likely outcomes is that Carapaz will finish comfortably in the second GC group (behind 1-4 riders), improving his position slightly overall. I see him racing conservatively here.

It wouldn't totally surprise me to see Ineos allow Porte to attack near the top if the breakaway is a caught, to get him a first GT stage win (though that's also wishful thinking).

Yates is not necessarily a better chance to perform better on this stage than Carapaz, but he is a far better chance to win the stage imo.

Lopez seems overrated; he is better later in GT's, yes?

Odds wise, Dumoulin is good value. If he's form is good, this climb should suit him. I'm warming to him as a stronger overall winning chance already too.

Hindley could also do well here, though in 2020 it was his third week that was strongest.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

What!?
Didn't know that Porte has never won a GC stage.

 

[greyclouds]

I’m putting my money on Pello. I can’t tell what his GC ambitions are here, but he had a good spring and will most likely get to the end of this Giro overcooked - hence I’m expecting him today and on Sunday to be one of the stage entertainers.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Lopez seems overrated; he is better later in GT's, yes?

not on the last stage that matters for GC.

 

[Remy55]

Looks like the wind comes from the right direction for echolons.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Looks like the wind comes from the right direction for echolons.

Will be probably headwind on the Etna MTF so that's good news. But also bad news, because I am a Landa fan.

 

[Lequack]

 

[laarsland]

Blythe's sock game needs improving.

 

[dusty red roads]

Super strong head wind at the end:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1523953303058591745

View: https://twitter.com/RealStephens/status/1523953303058591745?cxt=HHwWgsC5sY7dlaYqAAAA

 

[rm2021]

Looking at the parcours and the history, this looks like a perfect day for the breakaway with 15-20 riders finishing together in the favorites group. In other words: I don't expect much if any action between the GC riders. Skjelmose for the win!

The riders make the race. If they climb at 30 kph, there will be differences. If they ride at 20 kph on the climb, there will not be differences.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Predictions
Jacy Durand - Nibali
Karsten Kroon - Yates

then the stream died on me.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Its a different side from the Etna, again, compared to 2017/2018/2020 though

 

[KZD]

Super strong head wind at the end:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1523953303058591745

View: https://twitter.com/RealStephens/status/1523953303058591745?cxt=HHwWgsC5sY7dlaYqAAAA

Maybe Van der Poel will surprise everyone (except Contador) and keep pink.

 

[AlfaLum]

Why do we always have headwind on the Etna

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Why do we always have headwind on the Etna

It's pretty impressive, considering that they've climbed it from the northeast, south and southwest in the past six Giros alone!

 

[MrTea1976]

Race is on!

 

[Eclipse]

MAL off the back early for an unexplained reason