Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis

[Netserk]

Those scores cannot be used for anything IMO. Were not going to the top of Blockhaus

300 points less still leaves Blockhaus as the clear number 1. Even excluding the first 10 km doesn't change that.

I think the scoring method is bad for long uneven climbs, as there's no penalty for descents, and I think it overestimates the difficulty of extreme gradients (I already mentioned altitude). Zoncolan has the same score as Finestre (and both ~130 points more than Stelvio), but I think the latter is harder.

That said, I think it captures the difficulty of climbs quite well.

 

[Pantani_lives]

For a quick estimation of a climb I use this system:

(% gradient x 10) + (length in km) + (altitude in hm).

Out of laziness I round the numbers down. So Blockhaus would be 84 + 18 + 16 = 118

The Menador comes close: 99 + 7 + 11 = 117

Then comes Kolovrat: 92+ 10 + 11 = 113

Then comes the Fedaia: 76 + 14 + 20 = 110

In comparison the Zoncolan from Ovaro has the highest score: 115 + 10 + 17 = 142.

I know it's not very scientific, but it's a fast way to calculate the toughness of a climb.

 

[gregrowlerson]

For a quick estimation of a climb I use this system:

(% gradient x 10) + (length in km) + (altitude in hm).

Out of laziness I round the numbers down. So Blockhaus would be 84 + 18 + 16 = 118

The Menador comes close: 99 + 7 + 11 = 117

Then comes Kolovrat: 92+ 10 + 11 = 113

Then comes the Fedaia: 76 + 14 + 20 = 110

In comparison the Zoncolan from Ovaro has the highest score: 115 + 10 + 17 = 142.

I know it's not very scientific, but it's a fast way to calculate the toughness of a climb.

Times 10 is far too great for gradient. On that theory a 1km climb at 10% would give 101 points, so a 7% climb would need to be 31 kms long to match it (assuming same altitude).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Using that system, the Mirador de Ezaro scores 147 + 1 + 2 = 150 and Muro di Guardiagrele scores 222 + 0 + 5 = 227...

 

[lenric]

if I were Nibali I wouldn't even bother with this, this isn't hard enough for him to win. I guess he'll just let any of the other peasants win this!

 

[Bushman]

@Eshnar or anyone else knowledgeable about Italian geography and cycling: do you have any tips or advice for getting to Blockhaus to watch the stage? Currently I’m planning on staying in Scafa, getting to Roccamorice in the morning and then hiking as far up the climb as possible but I cant say if it is realistic at all.

 

[Eshnar]

@Eshnar or anyone else knowledgeable about Italian geography and cycling: do you have any tips or advice for getting to Blockhaus to watch the stage? Currently I’m planning on staying in Scafa, getting to Roccamorice in the morning and then hiking as far up the climb as possible but I cant say if it is realistic at all.

Afaik hiking is always possible (depends on your athletic capabilities though...)
The climb might get closed to the traffic that day, but you can always go up by bike or just walk.

 

[SafeBet]

According to a friend of mine, there were shuttle buses going up the climb in 2017.
Not sure about this year, but yeah hiking is always possible. Getting to the top from Roccamorice will take a long time though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

if I were Nibali I wouldn't even bother with this, this isn't hard enough for him to win. I guess he'll just let any of the other peasants win this!

Yeah, Blockhaus, Santa Cristina, Passo Fedaia and Menador are easy climbs!

Actually, looking at this route, I dont mind it at all. All these climbs will be super selective and be the decisive climb of the day, and then you have the stage to Etna, Aosta and the Slovenian stage which also could cause some trouble. And of course Torino.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, Blockhaus, Santa Cristina, Passo Fedaia and Menador are easy climbs!

Actually, looking at this route, I dont mind it at all. All these climbs will be super selective and be the decisive climb of the day, and then you have the stage to Etna, Aosta and the Slovenian stage which also could cause some trouble. And of course Torino.

My annoyance is theyre all the last climb of the day. Only Kolovrat is not. Not a freat recipe with so little ITT.

Individual climbs are largely fine

 

[Netserk]

Compare and contrast 2014 with 2015.

 

[Red Rick]

Compare and contrast 2014 with 2015.

Or just imagine seeing an ITT like 2009 again. 1 hour 38 minutes for the winner.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Guys, come on, this is better than 2014... Santa Cristina and Menador are not MTFs. 2014 was basically just a MTF-fiesta with a lot of pretty tame designs. Only thing it had going was a better queen stage and a TT.

 

[Netserk]

2014 was basically just a MTF-fiesta with a lot of pretty tame designs.

And this year is worse with that. You have nothing like the Stelvio stage, but plenty of "these climbs will be super selective and be the decisive climb of the day", just like 2014.

 

[Valv.Piti]

So you'd take the 2014 route then I assume? Blasphemous

 

[Red Rick]

Guys, come on, this is better than 2014... Santa Cristina and Menador are not MTFs. 2014 was basically just a MTF-fiesta with a lot of pretty tame designs. Only thing it had going was a better queen stage and a TT.

Menador is cool. Santa Cristina effectively isnt much different from a MTF

 

[Valv.Piti]

These climbs are very steep, and almost no matter how defensively they are ridden, will produce big gaps. That the difference. Also, we dont get to see these climbs almost ever, so theres something to that as well.

 

[lenric]

Yeah, Blockhaus, Santa Cristina, Passo Fedaia and Menador are easy climbs!

Actually, looking at this route, I dont mind it at all. All these climbs will be super selective and be the decisive climb of the day, and then you have the stage to Etna, Aosta and the Slovenian stage which also could cause some trouble. And of course Torino.

I forgot the '/s'.

 

[Eclipse]

I generally like the route. I think it's going to give us some seriously good racing with the cast we have this time around.

There's a few spots that might result in an unfortunate chunk of dead air but we all know that even the most interesting routes can just be neutered by the riders if they decide it's too much. Meanwhile we have a number of guys who will actually take any oppo they get to try make gains.

---

(as an aside and because this thread is full of Italy affocionados - I am looking for some moderate hikes around Garda, maybe 3-5 hours. Anyone got recommendations? Thinking about doing something with Cima del Pozzette at the mo)

 

[Netserk]

These climbs are very steep, and almost no matter how defensively they are ridden, will produce big gaps. That the difference. Also, we dont get to see these climbs almost ever, so theres something to that as well.

We saw the massive gaps on Zonc in 2014 ...

 

[Red Rick]

We saw the massive gaps on Zonc in 2014 ...

I think the better comparison is the 2015 Vuelta.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I think the better comparison is the 2015 Vuelta.

And the most recent ascent of Angliru shows it's not a problem that has disappeared. Generally that type of really steep easily-HC climb has become a lot less effective compared to when they were introduced in the 90s and 00s, even Mortirolo proved not to be immune in 2019. In fairness, the steep climbs of this Giro are more in the realm of 10% which seems to be the sweet spot now.

 

[Red Rick]

And the most recent ascent of Angliru shows it's not a problem that has disappeared. Generally that type of really steep easily-HC climb has become a lot less effective compared to when they were introduced in the 90s and 00s, even Mortirolo proved not to be immune in 2019. In fairness, the steep climbs of this Giro are more in the realm of 10% which seems to be the sweet spot now.

Angliru is steepest at like 2km under the top and like 3km to go so that doesn't help. Basically with modern gears and power meters everyone has just about learned to pace these super steep climbs, and they kinda make riders a little more tentative even.

I absolutely think the sweet spot is 9-11% for an extended period of time. Also unipuerto stages occasionally have pretty overblown gaps compared to more conventional mountain stages when it leads to teams throwing absolutely fresh domestiques at the bottom of the climb causing riders to blow the *** up. That's basically the recipe for PSM, Blockhaus, Oropa, you name it. The key to insane differences I think is being able to force competitors into suboptimal pacing strategies. Super long climbs on the other hand often see much of the first part of the climb getting softpaced to spare domestiques.

I think this makes Finestre extra great because it's over an hour where most important climbs are between 20-40 minutes, and it's 9% starting at the very bottom to the top.

 

[Escarabajo]

I agree that 9-11% for long periods are the real killer. Finestre or Stelvio are the best climbs for that. You can't just pace yourself because at some point you will get tired because of the length.
Other think that I noticed affects riders a lot even if not steep gradients is altitude.

 

[Bonimenier]

Cycling twitter knowing what's up

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521112759613677568