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Yeah, the GC was decided long time ago. That happens sometimes, but theres really no need to be pessimistic just for the sake of being a pessimist.
My thoughts on the course:
This isn't the toughest Giro of recent times, but I think people are underestimating it. It has a few tough, but not so well known climbs, in addition to the well known ones. In the first two weeks however only one stage is likely to give major gaps between the GC riders: the MTF on Blockhaus. I don't think much will happen on this unsteep side of the Etna until the final 2 km. Stage 12 is tricky, but the climbs are pretty far from the finish. The battle for the stage win will certainly be interesting, but a gutsy GC rider might try something too.
So apart from Blockhaus the GC will probably be decided in the final nine days. The penultimate weekend offers two chances with possibilities for inspired attackers, but the main favorites might still stick together. Stage 16 has the much easier side of the Mortirolo, and it comes the day before a tougher stage. However there's always someone with a bad day after the resting day. Stage 17 has a major climb 8 km before the finish: the Menador or Monterovere or whatever its name is. That could be decisive; it's an excellent opportunity to go after the pink jersey if you're strong. Stage 19 is another underestimated stage, with a tough climb in Slovenia and a shorter MTF in Italy. This is the best chance for a big attack over two climbs for someone who's willingbto play all or nothing. Stage 20 is another tough Dolomite stage. That could be a major finale, or a boring stage with the team of the pink jersey in control of everything.
Of course a long flat ITT and a climbing ITT would have been better, but there's no use in complaining. If there's a battle for seconds the final stage might still be exciting.
This isn't the toughest Giro of recent times, but I think people are underestimating it. It has a few tough, but not so well known climbs, in addition to the well known ones. In the first two weeks however only one stage is likely to give major gaps between the GC riders: the MTF on Blockhaus. I don't think much will happen on this unsteep side of the Etna until the final 2 km. Stage 12 is tricky, but the climbs are pretty far from the finish. The battle for the stage win will certainly be interesting, but a gutsy GC rider might try something too.
So apart from Blockhaus the GC will probably be decided in the final nine days. The penultimate weekend offers two chances with possibilities for inspired attackers, but the main favorites might still stick together. Stage 16 has the much easier side of the Mortirolo, and it comes the day before a tougher stage. However there's always someone with a bad day after the resting day. Stage 17 has a major climb 8 km before the finish: the Menador or Monterovere or whatever its name is. That could be decisive; it's an excellent opportunity to go after the pink jersey if you're strong. Stage 19 is another underestimated stage, with a tough climb in Slovenia and a shorter MTF in Italy. This is the best chance for a big attack over two climbs for someone who's willingbto play all or nothing. Stage 20 is another tough Dolomite stage. That could be a major finale, or a boring stage with the team of the pink jersey in control of everything.
Of course a long flat ITT and a climbing ITT would have been better, but there's no use in complaining. If there's a battle for seconds the final stage might still be exciting.
I tend to agree with you. Of course, Italy has so many great opportunities for hilly and mountain parcours that it is hard to rate this route more than a 6.5 or 7 - but it’s still a route with great opportunities. A longer itt and a “proper” queen stage would have been welcomed, and there’s still a bunch of weird looking stages, but if its end up being a low quality GT won’t be because of the route imho.
Big Doopie
BANNED
such a third-rate GT with a lack of TT and therefore a lack of high-end overall candidates.
here's hoping dumo can become the dumo of 2017 & 2018 and give this Giro some legitimacy.
here's hoping dumo can become the dumo of 2017 & 2018 and give this Giro some legitimacy.
Other than the Slovenians (who you would normally expect to target the Tour and not ride the Giro), who are the missing high-end overall candidates?
Martinez and Thomas? Vingegaard?
Even if the route is poor, the field is not.
Martinez, Vingegaard and Bernal, if he's healthy. Mas I would consider a solid top 5 bet. Can't think of many others. Guess Adam Yates and Vlasov deserve a shout.
I think most of the best of the non Slovenians are there. Bernal is injured, and Simon Yates is honestly the only other rider I think has a peak level that matches up to them, as well as MAL on even more selective cases.
Bernal is out of the picture, and would Vingegaard be the clearly number one favourite here if he was at the start? I don't think so. Likewise for Mas.
So the only available high-end overall candidates clearly missing are the two Slovenians.
Then you are left with the depth of the field, but is the third/fifth/whatever best contender starting here worse than what you'd expect or what it has been in other years? I would turn it around and say that the field has been surprisingly strong in the Giro in some of the editions over the past decade (but rarely deep), and this is more along the baseline.
So the only available high-end overall candidates clearly missing are the two Slovenians.
Then you are left with the depth of the field, but is the third/fifth/whatever best contender starting here worse than what you'd expect or what it has been in other years? I would turn it around and say that the field has been surprisingly strong in the Giro in some of the editions over the past decade (but rarely deep), and this is more along the baseline.
Bonimenier
BANNED
I don't think the GC field is super weak, but there is definitely an argument to be made it is below average. Of the 15 guys finishing top 5 in a GT last year only 3 are participating, and not 1 of then finished top 2 last year.
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Currently the field has significant depth when it comes to 2nd and 3rd tier GC contenders, but lacks the top end star quality due to the Slovenians and Bernal being absent for their different reasons. However, several of those present are either inconsistent by nature (Yates, Landa,MAL) or have been out of the GT GC picture recently for different reasons, but have shown an ability to podium or even win one before (Bardet, Dumoulin). If most of those manage to perform to more or less of their best abilities, this could end up as one the deepest GC fields the Giro has seen for some time.
There is also Carapaz, a former winner of the Giro, and he has been on the podium in other GTs as well.
He belongs in a third group that I didn't explicitly mention - the usually reliable ones. I tentatively put Almeida there too, although his GT career is at its relative starting blocks and no clear pattern has emerged yet of his abilities at those races, though 4th and 6th place in two consecutive Giri is a solid start.
Bonimenier
BANNED
So the top 5 last year is irrelevant, seeing how those two finished 2nd in Italy and Spain.
Tomorrow stage, stage 7, look really dangerous. It is hard, but speciclly one climb, so very difficult to contro... any goodf rider in a break is goung to be very difficult to control,,,and much more for Trek...so,,,it is difficut nothing happend tomorrow.
Big Doopie
BANNED
So u design a course that benefits only one particular type of rider, you get an underwhelming field and underwhelming action.
when will they learn?
when will they learn?
True and not only that, the order of the stages is also wrong, this stage would have made more damage in the 2nd and particularly in the 3rd week.
Fairly sure field strength only weekly correlates to the route.
Dumoulin.
...oh, wait.
In all seriousness, they might have been able to lure Evenepoel. Of course it's up for debate whether he can challenge a GT but his presence would undoubtedly improve the field. And maybe Ganna would have been tempted too, without him there's a clear lack of proven Italian stage winners. So I would say the lack of TT has hurt the field a bit, Yates winning the Budapest TT proves the point.
Big Doopie
BANNED
we got about 15 riders who are so even on this route design that none dare put their nose in the wind albeit for a second for fear of losing a dozen places in GC.
This type of course discourages all risk-taking.
would Carapaz sit tight if he knew he was likely to disburse 4-6 minutes in ITTs?
having ten riders within 1 minute going into the last week in no way makes the racing more exciting. The opposite in fact.
Pretty sure field strength correlates to the route for three weeks when it comes to a GT.
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