Giro d'Italia 2022 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Did they really have the pick? Everyone with a brain would take Simon over Adam 21 out of 20 times. Hes a better rider, and you actually notice when hes in a race.

I was thinking in terms of money and the amount Ineos have to splash around, I presumed they might have had a choice. But tbh I haven't really followed the transfer market - did Simon tell them to do one?

 

[Izzyeviel]

Going with Buchmann in the hope I end up looking like a genius

 

[Netserk]

I'm surprised Nibali has lower odds than Valverde.

 

[gunara]

This is the first GT where I think Carapaz is the easiest pick. Whether he can do it as the number one favorite is exciting to be seen, he has some serious challengers here. Yates, Landa, and Lòpez may reach mythical climbing level beyond anything Carapaz can bring, and what if a good Dumoulin appear? None of them are safe prediction though, none feels as safe as Carapaz.

The Landa dream, however, still refuse to end. Imagine if it finally happens, many souls in this world of disappointment will finally be free and find peace

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Carapaz is the safe prediction for me. Although I hope differently ofcourse

 

[Red Rick]

I'm honestly less of a believer in Carapaz than most. Feels like you have to heavily downplay the rest over being incosistent and assume they'll all implode sooner or later.

 

[Netserk]

I'm honestly less of a believer in Carapaz than most. Feels like you have to heavily downplay the rest over being incosistent and assume they'll all implode sooner or later.

Or that small differences are enough to win.

 

[Red Rick]

Or that small differences are enough to win.

I don't think it's a small difference race.

I think Carapaz' only real advantage is his team.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I don't think it's a small difference race.

I think Carapaz' only real advantage is his team.

His other Richie.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

I don't think it's a small difference race.

I think Carapaz' only real advantage is his team.

Having the strongest domestiques has won Ineos the last two editions of this race, that could easily happen again.

 

[Savant12]

Carapaz or Yates.

Landa will look real good but per usual, something unlucky will happen to cause him to drop out or ship a massive amount of time. He'll look superb towing Bilbao up the mountains which will lead to the inevitable posts of "Free Landa".

 

[HelloDolly]

Going for Landa for the first time ever ...he needs some luck and not to crash but I like him in the last week if he can only stay out of trouble..

I think Lil Richie Porte will be up there if Carapaz comes a cropper but if he doesnt Porte may have to sacrifice himself

Expect Yates and Almeida to start well but wane in last week

I like Bardet and Caruso for top 5 again
Not sure if Carthy riding but if so could be a good final week for him

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't think it's a small difference race.

I think Carapaz' only real advantage is his team.

Consistency.
"in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king"

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Going for Landa for the first time ever ...he needs some luck and not to crash but I like him in the last week if he can only stay out of trouble..

I think Lil Richie Porte will be up there if Carapaz comes a cropper but if he doesnt Porte may have to sacrifice himself

Expect Yates and Almeida to start well but wane in last week

I like Bardet and Caruso for top 5 again
Not sure if Carthy riding but if so could be a good final week for him

Caruso not going

 

[SafeBet]

Going for Landa for the first time ever ...he needs some luck and not to crash but I like him in the last week if he can only stay out of trouble..

I think Lil Richie Porte will be up there if Carapaz comes a cropper but if he doesnt Porte may have to sacrifice himself

Expect Yates and Almeida to start well but wane in last week

Almeida was at his best in the last week in 2021. I don't think he has recovery problems.

Yates is almost impossible to predict.

 

[Ivan_Basso_77]

Voted for Landani. The bad luck for him has to come to an end one day, doesn't it?

I like Bardet and Caruso for top 5 again

If Damiano was going to the Giro, I would have voted for him. Such a shame he isn't in the team.

My heart dearly wants Vincenzo to do something significant, but currently it seems too good to become reality.

 

[tobydawq]

Valverde will of course win.

He has never been outside the podium in this race and the only two riders to have beaten him have both fallen off a cliff level-wise.

 

[Velolover2]

Carapaz. He got the strongest team IMO.

At this age, Porte is not good enough to win one week races but still perfect as last man for a train. Ironically, he kinda did a strong lead-out for Bardet in Tour of the Alps.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Yeah with the majority I can’t see past Carapaz unless something crazy happens. He’s one of the top 5 best GT riders right now and none of the ones that could be ahead are present. Landa, MAL, Almedia, and S. Yates could all threaten but I think they’ll have more bad days then Carapaz.

Valverde and Nibali to get a top 10 and stage each.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe Carapaz is like 5th best GC rider but once you get below Bernal in 3rd I think gaps get very small very quickly and it's near impossible to be a favorite over the rest of the field.

 

[Netserk]

Valverde will of course win.

He has never been outside the podium in this race and the only two riders to have beaten him have both fallen off a cliff level-wise.

But you voted for Nibali?

 

[tobydawq]

But you voted for Nibali?

I was actually thinking Bardet when I voted other. But that was before I got the epiphany of last night.

 

[SafeBet]

Maybe Carapaz is like 5th best GC rider but once you get below Bernal in 3rd I think gaps get very small very quickly and it's near impossible to be a favorite over the rest of the field.

I think there's a big gap between someone who podiumed the last 3 GTs he rode for GC and someone who hasn't podiumed a GT in 7 years (Landa) or in 4 years (Lopez). At least in terms of consistency.
Of course if you rank riders based on peak performance you could make a case for both of them (and Yates) being better than Carapaz. But to me GTs are more about consistency than peak performance.

 

[perico]

Having the strongest domestiques has won Ineos the last two editions of this race, that could easily happen again.

Are they that much better than Bilbao and Poels though? Ineos is a much deeper team on paper, but I don’t see 2022 Richie and Sivakov being much stronger than the those two. Granted, through in Castro and the rest and you have the most impressive team, but I don’t see them as that superior to Bahrain.

I would love to see 2017-18 Dumoulin show up, but I am skeptical at this point which is a shame if he never is able to reach that level of contender again.
I still won’t write him off though

It’s now or never for #Landani to shine. He looked on par with Bernal on the early climbs last year, but he always looks great before catastrophes strike.

Almeida impressed me last year after all the headaches caused by having to babysit the Chosen One over the little pebbles. I think he’s biggest threat to whoever emerges out of the other favorites.

I voted for Landa. It’s his last best chance and he’s looked consistently strong all year. I doubt he’ll actually win though.

It will come down to a fight for pink between Bala and The Bag.

 

[gunara]

Are they that much better than Bilbao and Poels though? Ineos is a much deeper team on paper, but I don’t see 2022 Richie and Sivakov being much stronger than the those two. Granted, through in Castro and the rest and you have the most impressive team, but I don’t see them as that superior to Bahrain.

That's why my pick for Carapaz is not really about his team. Ineos today tend to (try to) give impression as being the strongest while in reality they're debatable at best, sometimes they just work more. For me it's more about Carapaz himself and him being a lesser question mark. While Landa, how I love this man, I'm going to exhaust myself anticipating in fear that something will happen so he will end up working to protect someone else's 5th place or worse.

I completely forgot Almeida in my first post. I'd put him below Carapaz and above the flashier rests. I wish to be wrong and to see all the angels fly on every climb all through the Giro of course.