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Tour de France 2022 Tour de France Start List

Page 4 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
They know Pogacar will probably be stronger than both Roglic and Vingegaard regardless and the rest of the field will probably be weaker. They also know Van Aert will not stay long-term without giving him the opportunities that pretty much any other team would give the second-best rider in the world. Think it's less bravery and more something that's either pragmatism or indecisiveness, depending on how you look at it.

In that case van Aert would get much more dedicated riders and no way Roglič and Vingegaard (and Krujswik ...) would prepare as they did.

They are basically serious in their goals. That is they want to secure both yellow and green at TDF 2022. Now on how realistic such goals are by themself. And on why teams like UAE and Ineos would likely never approach it in this way. That can be discussed. Before and after the race when the results will be known.

But as for the idea they have given up before they started. I don't buy that. On the contrary.
 
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According to Ellingworth & Thomas, it's Martinez and Yates as leaders, Thomas basically approaching it more like 2018 to 'see what happens'. Thomas probably at his best just there without pressure to win/attack and just grind away being consistently high placed.
There may be different graduations of status there then as you could see Thomas not being a leader in the sense of having riders drop back if he gets a mechanical or crash but still have a free role in not being asked pace set and drop off on an early climb but to ride his own race.
 
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EDZp_peXsAEB8bi.jpg

legend
 
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The JV team is 7 potential stage winners plus Hooydonck. I think there's going to be some friction there if Roglic isn't very close to Pogacar after SPDBF...honestly I think they can win if and only if Roglic is on the form of a lifetime and Vingegaard has a bad day early. I don't see how having them on equal footing going into the mountains helps unless Pogacar is weaker than I think he'll be. But hell, I could be totally wrong.

Van Aert's going to find winning green to be not so easy unless the team's GC hopes evaporate early.

I wouldn't take Dennis even if he were healthy and in form. His motivation is suspect in my book.

Dennis was good in Romandie (even though the race had an unhappy end for him). So I think mentally he's fine at TJV. I think we'll see him in the Vuelta & he'll be okay.

From my chair here there are two major disaster scenarios for Roglic (which can occur even if he's in the form of his life): mechanicals in week one where he loses time because he doesn't have the full team to pull for him (like on the cobbled stage where WvA & Jonas will have protection) & also in the event Jonas Vingegaard gets yellow, i.e. something which would cancel Roglic out entirely because he'd be restricted in a 'don't attack because the teammate has the jersey' situation.

This would be bad news for everyone because Pogacar will likely mug Vingegaard in the final ITT anyway & Roglic is also better than his teammate in the time trial as well.

I've honestly never seen a strategy of "two GC leaders" work before in the TdF, but I have seen teams go into the race with multiple options & the one who emerges as the strongest gets the support. A bit like Geraint Thomas in the 2018 TdF.
 
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Looking at the route, Wout Van Aert could maybe win the Green Jersey without him or the team having to do anything different to what they've done in previous years. It looks heavily skewed against pure sprinters and towards all-rounders. Just in the first 8 stages there are 4 stages which have maximum points available which are probably going to be inaccessible for the sprinters. It depends really who is going to target it and what form they are in
 
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Looking at the route, Wout Van Aert could maybe win the Green Jersey without him or the team having to do anything different to what they've done in previous years. It looks heavily skewed against pure sprinters and towards all-rounders. Just in the first 8 stages there are 4 stages which have maximum points available which are probably going to be inaccessible for the sprinters. It depends really who is going to target it and what form they are in
MVDP targeting the green jersey would be pretty nice...
 
I don't think there will be much of a problem. If Roglic punctures or crashes at an ill-timed moment, the entire squad barring Van Aert and Jonas will suport him. It's not like he will be left isolated.

Thing is, the line-up introduces two "Van Aert" oriented domestiques (Laporte and Van Hooydonck) rather than one (Teunissen) in the last couple of years, slightly reducing Primoz support in the mountains.

But if Primoz has a critical issue I am pretty sure Laporte & Van Hooydonck will support him as well.

Regarding the joint-leaders approach I think it's the right thing to do. IMHO the only possible way to defeat a healthy Pogacar who avoids any kind of punctures and crashes is an all-or-nothing long-range attack involving one of the two co-leaders and support from Van Aert, to soften up and isolate Pogacar from afar, forcing him to do the bulk of a chase and having the other co-leader profit from Pogi's effort.

Head to head, Pogi is 99.99% stronger than Primoz and Jonas.
 
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Having Laporte there is not a problem, that way he can stay with one of the gc riders on the cobbles stage, while Wout can stay with the stronger one on the cobbled stage, if the weaker gets gapped. Plus he can help the whole team in crosswinds and on short hills, having him on the Tour team benefits everyone.
 
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Thing is, the line-up introduces two "Van Aert" oriented domestiques (Laporte and Van Hooydonck) rather than one (Teunissen) in the last couple of years, slightly reducing Primoz support in the mountains.

I don't feel Hooydonck is dedicated helper for van Aert. A Tour team needs somebody like Martin or Dennis. Otherwise you would spend Laporte or van Aert before the stage would even start properly.

Head to head, Pogi is 99.99% stronger than Primoz and Jonas.

Such value is a product of hype.
 
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Having Laporte there is not a problem, that way he can stay with one of the gc riders on the cobbles stage, while Wout can stay with the stronger one on the cobbled stage, if the weaker gets gapped. Plus he can help the whole team in crosswinds and on short hills, having him on the Tour team benefits everyone.
Yeah. The only issue is Dennis is so multifunctional you really want him there as a team leader.

Meanwhile Dutch fans be crying cause they'd rather see 8 Dutch dudes getting clobbered in breakaways than a Dutch team trying to win the Tour de France.

I'm fairly sure they'd still whine if it was Roglic, Van Aert and 6 Dutch bottle carriers.
 
Don't think so. Pogacar is much better than Jonas. He was way ahead of him in Tirreno.

Primoz has not looked better than 2021 (if anything, he looked weaker), while Tadej looks at least equal than 2021 if not stronger.

We will see in a couple of weeks, but I don't think there is anything Primoz can do head to head with Pogacar.

If all of that would be true that would still not account for 99.99%. It's just unrealistic.
 
Regarding the joint-leaders approach I think it's the right thing to do. IMHO the only possible way to defeat a healthy Pogacar who avoids any kind of punctures and crashes is an all-or-nothing long-range attack involving one of the two co-leaders and support from Van Aert, to soften up and isolate Pogacar from afar, forcing him to do the bulk of a chase and having the other co-leader profit from Pogi's effort.

Head to head, Pogi is 99.99% stronger than Primoz and Jonas.

Pogacar could be completely evil & leave the yellow jersey to Jumbo (the best bet for him would be Jonas V), then just sit on Jonas on every mountain stage, whilst being less than a minute or so behind in GC. This absolutely villainous, evil genius plan would nullify all Jumbo attacks because they'd ride defensive & Rog would be told to behave (i.e. no risk, no glory long distance attacks completely ruled out). UAE would make Jumbo do the work with their train... until Pog smashes the final 40km ITT.

Everyone thinks Pog is some sort of terminator who'll just ride off into the distance like a cyborg but this isn't entirely true: he's a selective terminator who terminates his rivals at the right time based on a strategic plan - like in 2020 when he rode on JV's coattails. He also does this in one day races as well.

I mean it's highly likely Jonas could match Pogacar on the climbs if Pog doesn't go full crazy & then Jumbo starts to think "oh wow, Jonas can win the Tour!", even with Pog sitting merely seconds behind in GC.

Just because everyone thinks Pog is the strongest it doesn't mean Pog will play along & give teams like Jumbo Visma the tactical playground they want.
 
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For me personally it's a rather expected outcome. I knew they are serious about both yellow and green and for Laporte to get a spot. The only downside for me is no Dennis. But as illness and as a result likely subpar preparation was involved. Not much you can do about that.

As for racing for both yellow and green at the same time. It's an unorthodox move and they must feel very confident in regards to setting such goals. Best to wait and see on how it goes. As once such decision gets made best to stick with it. Lets go for yellow and green then. Why not.
 
@Rackham

I don't know who will win TDF 2022. As Tour is still the Tour and such things tend to be unpredictable. In regards to Rogla vs. Pogi i would say 50:50. In regards to JV GC (support) section. I don't know what the form of Kuss is. But if we assume he is in good form then this will likely be the best team Roglič had so far. Minus the Dennis spot. As Dennis in my opinion would made much difference too. But lets not diminish Hooydonck contribution just yet. Lets first see on how he does.
 
I stand by my prediction: Roglic will win GC.

I believe he wants this more than anything & will stop at nothing. It'll be like Liège 2020 or the Olympics ITT, i.e. out of nowhere.

Well, if I had interest in betting, Roglic' odds certainly look juicier than Pogacar's. 2/3 is ridiculous for a race like the Tour de France, even if he was the lovechild of Armstrong and Contador.
 

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