If all of that would be true that would still not account for 99.99%. It's just unrealistic.
Well, they only faced once (when they both finished) in a stage race last year. And on that occasion it was Roglič that won. Vinegaard was also ahead of Tadej on that occasion. So that 99,99% would seem rather strange. In fact only once has Pogačar beaten Roglič in a stage race that they both finished. Tour 2020.
I am not saying that Pogačar is not the favourite - because he definitely is - but saying that he is better than Roglič and Vingegaard in 99,99% is very stretched. This would mean that he would beat them in basically every race and stage they participate in. But that is clearly not the case.
Forget about 99.99% if that is distracting you all from the message and the core idea. What I mean is, in my personal opinion, which of course can be wrong, head to head on a standard resolution (head to head battle between favourites in the mountains and ITT, no time loss on potential crosswinds and Roubaix stage) Pogacar will beat Roglic fair and square.
You're right about Itzulia 2021. On that particular occasion there was some kind of long-range attack and particular circumstances (McNulty leading) which favoured the outcome. Precisely, that race involved a scenario where Pogacar was isolated from afar and had to chase with a Jumbo glued to his wheel, which is the only scenario I see in which Tadej can be defeated (as I said, apart from him crashing or being dropped on echelons or cobbles).
In short, as I view it, Jumbo has a (much) better team than UAE. They have to take advantage on that as much as they can being highly aggresive on echelons, cobbles and using their team strength because, if they rely on defeating Tadej one to one they are very likely losing the race.