Tour de France 2022 Tour de France Start List

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If all of that would be true that would still not account for 99.99%. It's just unrealistic.
Well, they only faced once (when they both finished) in a stage race last year. And on that occasion it was Roglič that won. Vinegaard was also ahead of Tadej on that occasion. So that 99,99% would seem rather strange. In fact only once has Pogačar beaten Roglič in a stage race that they both finished. Tour 2020.

I am not saying that Pogačar is not the favourite - because he definitely is - but saying that he is better than Roglič and Vingegaard in 99,99% is very stretched. This would mean that he would beat them in basically every race and stage they participate in. But that is clearly not the case.

Forget about 99.99% if that is distracting you all from the message and the core idea. What I mean is, in my personal opinion, which of course can be wrong, head to head on a standard resolution (head to head battle between favourites in the mountains and ITT, no time loss on potential crosswinds and Roubaix stage) Pogacar will beat Roglic fair and square.

You're right about Itzulia 2021. On that particular occasion there was some kind of long-range attack and particular circumstances (McNulty leading) which favoured the outcome. Precisely, that race involved a scenario where Pogacar was isolated from afar and had to chase with a Jumbo glued to his wheel, which is the only scenario I see in which Tadej can be defeated (as I said, apart from him crashing or being dropped on echelons or cobbles).

In short, as I view it, Jumbo has a (much) better team than UAE. They have to take advantage on that as much as they can being highly aggresive on echelons, cobbles and using their team strength because, if they rely on defeating Tadej one to one they are very likely losing the race.
 
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In Itzulia 2021, Roglic beat Pogacar by nearly 30 seconds in the opening ITT. Pog had no path to victory unless he dropped Roglic (most likely in a toe-to-toe battle on the final climb). So the final stage is a bit misleading, i.e. Pog was in a bit of trouble before that.

By & large the underrating of Primoz Roglic is a regular occurrence. The comments here are mild as well compared to what's being posted & said elsewhere. I mean the Dauphiné is being used to portray Roglic as a has-been & Vingegaard as way better. Is this rational? I don't think so. But it's similar to the conversations last summer, i.e. for example when certain Slovenians themselves wanted Roglic to give the ITT spot in the Olympics to Pogacar because he was 'past it' after the road race, or when people genuinely believed Enric Mas was stronger than Roglic uphill in the Vuelta (Contador for example). Or during the Covadonga stage, many expected Bernal to blow Roglic off his wheel on the final climb.

Etc. etc.

The truth is Roglic is not a normal predictable rider. So most of the visual clues & data people rely upon to make the judgement "Vingegaard > Roglic" don't actually apply because he's disproven such theories again, again & again in his career.

I mean if I'm Pogacar in the TdF, I wouldn't even fall for the Vingegaard bait (because Pog is better than Jonas in the ITT), I'd just stick to Roglic like glue & then attack him. And I suspect that's what we'll see.
 
As the curtain on Vincenzo Nibali's career draws to a close, I sense that the favourite rider on the forum is quickly becoming Promoz Roglic (it's genuine love, Pinot is more for sympathy).

A big forum group hug awaits if he can stand on the top step in Paris.

Excuse me! My love for Pinot - and his goats - is 100% true and pure!
Not literal love, I don't actually know the guy.
 
Excuse me! My love for Pinot - and his goats - is 100% true and pure!
Not literal love, I don't actually know the guy.

What was the name of that French kid on the Swedish airfield? The plot thickens...

Also my feelings towards Roglic are unchanged There's still only one rider's trophy cabinet I'd like a private tour of.

It's Samu's of course (it wouldn't last long, but it would still be worth it).
 
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Ewan is not getting much of a train. Or at least not his usual one.

Caleb Ewan
Frederik Frison
Philippe Gilbert
Andreas Kron
Brent Van Moer
Tim Wellens
Florian Vermeersch
Reinardt Janse van Rensburg

Well his usual one just fell apart this year with De Buyst being injured for a long time (and now out of form), Kluge obviously not having the power anymore and Selig - I suspect - being one of those long covid guys who still struggles with the after effects. With Van Moer, Vermeersch, Wellens, Gilbert, Van Rensburg he has some powerguys and one good pilot who can help him in the last 10k. And the positive about those guys is that they're not always useless in other stages.
 
As the curtain on Vincenzo Nibali's career draws to a close, I sense that the favourite rider on the forum is quickly becoming Promoz Roglic (it's genuine love, Pinot is more for sympathy).

A big forum group hug awaits if he can stand on the top step in Paris.

I can only speak for myself but it would be the best sporting moment I can think of.

Ever since Roglic lost the podium spot of the 2018 TdF his career has been a rollercoaster of success & tragedies. Yep, I've lived them all & seen them all. Winning the Tour would just be the summit of everything. I get why lots of people are attracted to Pogacar (because superhuman performances capture the imagination, i.e. just look at how Nadal, Djokovic, Ronaldo, Messi, Hamilton etc. have so many fans ), but I had my fill of that with guys like Lance & Schumacher when I was a kid.

I can't relate to people getting excited because the latest cyborg fresh off Skynet's assembly line is going to break records in whichever sport he's in. Imagine the "tension" of being a Pogacar fan? It must be all about "oh, so when's he going to drop a nuke?" or "I'm getting bored already, drop that nuke!". Even his wins must be disappointing when the watts aren't high enough.

Roglic is very different. He has huge highs & serious lows. Bad things can & do happen, some are his own fault, most are due to exterior factors. This is what makes him human, relatable & easy to cheer for. I also don't get agitated when he's dropped on a climb (or looks like he's on the brink) because it's happened loads of times over the past 5 years. This also applies to everyone else as well (including riders like Evenepoel): cycling is so competitive & so fast these days that even the best will get dropped if they're not 100% but this doesn't mean they won't return next race & smash it.

It's not like Indurain on Les Arcs in 1996 with Patrick Chêne aka France TV commentator screaming "Indurain lâché!" which in TdF career terms = game over. Cycling has changed since then. Ups & downs are normal for 99% of the peloton & I expect Roglic to be "up" at the TdF 2022.
 
Well his usual one just fell apart this year with De Buyst being injured for a long time (and now out of form), Kluge obviously not having the power anymore and Selig - I suspect - being one of those long covid guys who still struggles with the after effects. With Van Moer, Vermeersch, Wellens, Gilbert, Van Rensburg he has some powerguys and one good pilot who can help him in the last 10k. And the positive about those guys is that they're not always useless in other stages.

Previously posted that Ewan would have a smaller train because of his lack of stage wins at the last two GT's - It makes perfect sense for Lotto to choose a more versatile team.
 
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As the curtain on Vincenzo Nibali's career draws to a close, I sense that the favourite rider on the forum is quickly becoming Promoz Roglic (it's genuine love, Pinot is more for sympathy).

A big forum group hug awaits if he can stand on the top step in Paris.
You can also say that Masnada is becoming a forum favourite. Don't think there is anyone here that dislike the guy.

Roglic is a great racer and athlete, and also a good man, but I think he still lacks something, not quite definable, that Nibali has
 
If Nibs retires at the falling leaves (I won't believe it and I definitely won't accept it), then the cyclist that would make me get out of bed in the morning would be MvdP. If they both retire, then I'm lying in bed just like Brian Wilson did.

You don’t need to get out of bed in the morning to see Roglic. He’ll sit in the Jumbo train til the last steep bit.
I’m not that bothered about GC riders though but appreciate others are.
MvdP, Ala, Remco, Pog and a few others like Mohoric are the ones that make races interesting to me.
 
I don't think there will be much of a problem. If Roglic punctures or crashes at an ill-timed moment, the entire squad barring Van Aert and Jonas will suport him. It's not like he will be left isolated.

Thing is, the line-up introduces two "Van Aert" oriented domestiques (Laporte and Van Hooydonck) rather than one (Teunissen) in the last couple of years, slightly reducing Primoz support in the mountains.

But if Primoz has a critical issue I am pretty sure Laporte & Van Hooydonck will support him as well.

Regarding the joint-leaders approach I think it's the right thing to do. IMHO the only possible way to defeat a healthy Pogacar who avoids any kind of punctures and crashes is an all-or-nothing long-range attack involving one of the two co-leaders and support from Van Aert, to soften up and isolate Pogacar from afar, forcing him to do the bulk of a chase and having the other co-leader profit from Pogi's effort.

Head to head, Pogi is 99.99% stronger than Primoz and Jonas.
Even Van Aert will have to work for Roglic, if needed. Which he will do in full, even if this mortgages his chances of a stage win and the green jersey. Unfortunately, we have often seen in the past that Roglic is not willing to help a teammate. Certainly not in full and for longer than a few minutes
 
While I don't think Roglic can win the Tour (unless Pogacar has bad luck or drops out), I do think Jumbo can make it very difficult for him. But then they can't put everything on Roglic. But I fear that they will do that anyway, and that Roglic will weaken during the second half of the Tour. Then adjusting the course tactics in favor of Vingegaard is probably too late.

What they have to do is take turns attacking, from the first hard mountain ride. Roglic during shorter final climbs and at the end of those climbs. Vingegaard on longer final climbs and even a few times on the penultimate ascent. Then see what happens to Pogacar.
In the best case scenario, one of them will manage to take time at Pogacar (with the other teammate in Pogacar's wheel). In the other cases, Pogacar is pushed on the defensive. So he can't attack himself. But if they both passively climb up with Pogacar and his helpers, Pogacar will choose a day when he himself takes a hard hit.
 
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