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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? Pre-race poll.

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Who will win the 2022 Giro d'Italia?

  • Total voters
    259
  • Poll closed .
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
13,501
9,018
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Roglic's way of winning GT's is usually to sit back and wait for a big push on the final km of uphill finishes. But the problem is, I don't think he can beat Remco that way. Bonus seconds and a good TT won't beat arguably the best TT'er in the world on a route with, for today's standards, quite a lot of TT kilometers.

Now I'm not 100% convinced in Remco being the most consistently great climber over a three week race, so it's not like I think he is completely unbeatable. But my doubts about how great of a gc rider Roglic really is are well documented in this forum, so yeah, he simply isn't the rider I put my full trust in when it comes to taking advantage of potential weaknesses by Remco. I wouldn't completely rule out a Roglic win, but Evenepoel is my very clear favorite.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
49,850
36,694
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Gigs_98 said:
Roglic's way of winning GT's is usually to sit back and wait for a big push on the final km of uphill finishes. But the problem is, I don't think he can beat Remco that way. Bonus seconds and a good TT won't beat arguably the best TT'er in the world on a route with, for today's standards, quite a lot of TT kilometers.
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This only makes his past GTs a poor representation of how he'll race it. In stage races, he's generally been quite aggressive when behind on GC and when having the legs to do something.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Devil's Elbow said:
Barring crashes or other things that would ruin it, I expect this race will be decided by one of Roglic and Evenepoel breaking the other in one of the big mountain stages and taking, say, two minutes in the process. As good as Evenepoel was last Vuelta, he didn't have to face this magnitude of climbing, whereas Roglic destroyed everyone on the way to Covadonga the last time he got to do a big GT mountain stage in perfect health. In fact, I think Evenepoel's Vuelta-winning climbing was less impressive than Roglic' climbing in the 2019 and 2021 Vueltas, as well as the 2020 Tour. Moreover, I don't think Roglic has declined much, if at all, compared to that (rather it's Pogacar and Vingegaard who have improved).

So if anything, Evenepoel needs to break new ground to be the one to break the other rather than the other way round - ground that he didn't break in Catalunya. Now Catalunya definitely isn't a perfect predictor and Evenepoel still has room to grow in terms of his climbing, but as someone who voted for Evenepoel ahead of last year's Vuelta, I still have a bit more faith in Roglic for now when push comes to shove in the Alps.
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Yeah I don't think that much has changed between the end of the Vuelta and now.

I think Evenepoels spring has been fairly comparable to the lead up to the Vuelta, with Liege being similar to Liege last year and CSS depending on which you wanna compare it to. For Roglic I think the "new" thing we've learned is that he recovered very well from his injury and that he's on track for the Giro.

There's a few narratives that just don't make that much sense to me cause they're either overextrapolations on very few events, like "Evenepoel is gonna fade in week 3, or Evenepoel can't do altitude" or this dogmatic repetition of talking points that are held true when they don't hold stand up to too much scrutiny for me, such as "Evenepoel is gonna be one year better" because ofcourse it's so easy to improve when you had a huge peak year last year and you're in your 5th year at WT level, or that the W/kg estimates being higher means a rider is still getting much better when the numbers have taken a massive leap for just about everyone.
 
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Andy schleck

Andy schleck

Jul 18, 2020
1,167
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Gigs_98 said:
Roglic's way of winning GT's is usually to sit back and wait for a big push on the final km of uphill finishes. But the problem is, I don't think he can beat Remco that way. Bonus seconds and a good TT won't beat arguably the best TT'er in the world on a route with, for today's standards, quite a lot of TT kilometers.

Now I'm not 100% convinced in Remco being the most consistently great climber over a three week race, so it's not like I think he is completely unbeatable. But my doubts about how great of a gc rider Roglic really is are well documented in this forum, so yeah, he simply isn't the rider I put my full trust in when it comes to taking advantage of potential weaknesses by Remco. I wouldn't completely rule out a Roglic win, but Evenepoel is my very clear favorite.
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Roglic is not going to lose time to remco in the first 2 TTs. Mark my words.
 
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O

OlavEH

Oct 19, 2011
2,905
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Points of interest for this Giro:

  • Is Remco even better than last year and will win with at least 3-4 mins or more?
  • Is Roglic really on the same level as 2021?
  • Is Tao closer to the 2020 Giro level again and could challenge for a podium spot?
  • Will Almeida finally take it to a higher level than the last years and possibly secure a podium spot in the GC?

Besides these guys I guess the main contenders are Thomas, Vlasov and possible Ciccone. I will be a bit suprised if anyone other than these 7 can challege for the podium in the GC.
 
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
13,501
9,018
28,180
Red Rick said:
This only makes his past GTs a poor representation of how he'll race it. In stage races, he's generally been quite aggressive when behind on GC and when having the legs to do something.
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We will see. At least it means that to beat Remco he will have to go out of his comfort zone. And that relying on what you do best won't be enough to win is never good news.
 
O

OlavEH

Oct 19, 2011
2,905
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Who are "by default" the top GC riders now? Let's say top two levels

Level 1: Definitely Pog, Vingegaard and Remco. Roglic?
Level 2: Definitely Mas, Thomas and probably Hindley. Gaudu? And Roglic if not on level 1.

Bernal would very probably be at least level 2 if not for being very injury plagued. Can't see many others. Carapaz seem to be declining. Don't think neither Landa, Vlasov, Almeida, O'Connor or other are on this level.
 
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L

laarsland

Dec 23, 2015
652
633
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OlavEH said:
Who are "by default" the top GC riders now? Let's say top two levels

Level 1: Definitely Pog, Vingegaard and Remco. Roglic?
Level 2: Definitely Mas, Thomas and probably Hindley. Gaudu? And Roglic if not on level 1.

Bernal would very probably be at least level 2 if not for being very injury plagued. Can't see many others. Carapaz seem to be declining. Don't think neither Landa, Vlasov, Almeida, O'Connor or other are on this level.
Click to expand...

So the guy who has won one GT is definitely level 1, whilst the guy who won the three preceeding editions of that GT is a question mark? :rolleyes:
 
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Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
4,444
11,817
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Head (& fatalism) says Evenepoel, heart says Rogla... with a sprinkling of logic as well (real logic, not the Evenepoel fanboy variant).

Evenepoel makes sense when we consider his career trajectory, his form, his potential & his expected superiority in flat ITT's. It would be 'normal' for last year's Vuelta winner to continue his upwards trajectory & win the Giro this year.

Heart says Roglič though, i.e. because if there's one rider who can disrupt expected trends, it's Rog. He's an outlier, an 'ovni' in the pro peloton. His rider profile doesn't follow any logical pre-existing rules regarding age, form drop off or any areas which people could use to predict his doom in GT's now.

I mean what he did already this season is crazy considering his shoulder operation & last year's sketchy form. It's just a fact Roglič looks stronger this year than he did in 2022. So... we'll see.

I'd love for that final ITT to be decisive though, with a sort of quasi exorcism of La Planche with a reverse result.
 
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Põhja Konn

Põhja Konn

Sep 1, 2012
1,067
583
12,080
Tao Hart might be the most well suited of the GC guys for the kind of parcours this Giro offers, but whether he can seriously trouble Remco and Rog depends on how great to an extent the race exposes the two favourites' possible weaknesses. Right now I'll go with Remco, because I expect him to gain more from the last part of his preparation between Catalunya and the Giro compared to Roglic. The latter is more known for his high-level consistency rather than peaking for specific targets.
 
Mayomaniac

Mayomaniac

Apr 10, 2019
11,119
14,316
23,180
SHAD0W93 said:
Most likely it’ll be Almedia with the others grouped behind and Almeida trailing that group.
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If (big if) Tao finds his 2020 Giro legs I can see him being up there with Roglic and Remco in the mountains. So far he has looked good this year.

Also, that Bahrain team looks stacked. Haig, Caruso, Mäder & Santi Buitrago.

No idea what to expect from Vine. He hasn't raced since his dnf in the UAE tour. That said, last year he didn't race at all between the Tour de Suisse (that he didn't finish) and the Vuelta, so who knows. From what he has shown on the mountain stages last year and also looking at his TT results this year he has the potential to mix it up with them, but putting it all together for 3 weeks and his shape after a long break is a bit of a question mark. Currently he is training with Formolo and Covi in the Sierra Nevada.
 
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