2023 Tour de France route rumors

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It isn't the TT that creates the gap, there make them attack. It just send everybody else minutes behind.
Which means those riders have to attack if they want to gain anything from the race. That means you get situations like in the latter part of this year's Tour where riders at the bottom end of the top 10 or just outside are attacking, and are close enough that teams of major GC riders need to keep them on a leash, driving the pace up and resulting in fewer domestiques available for the bigger names, resulting in more likelihood of a move from distance succeeding.

Reductio ad absurdum - we know circa 2010 that Contador and Andy Schleck are the best climbers in the race, so let's get rid of all the mountains, they just put everybody else minutes behind Contador and Schleck, so we can give riders that aren't as good as them a chance to win too. As mentioned, 1989 was a Tour which only really had two riders in contention for over two weeks - but as long as the battle between those two riders is great... it's fine. It's not a bad thing if one or two riders are better than the others when the objective is to crown the best cyclist. Why did Contador win 2 (3) Tours to Schleck's 1 (0)? Because he was the more balanced rider. He could match Schleck in the mountains but he was almost invariably the better TT rider. Cycling might have moved on from the early 90s such that two 60km TTs per GT plus a prologue and a 65km TTT would be completely unfeasible... but just to have a couple of TTs or the occasional one that's a real challenge isn't too much to ask.

Mind you, in recent years a real queen stage has been too much to ask, so you know, swings and roundabouts.
 
And if there are no time gaps that put the better climbers at a disadvantage, then they don't race on the road because they can do it in smaller, energy-saving bursts. We can point at the positive race in the 2022 Tour, but just the same you have the 2020 Tour, with Jumbo trying to win in time gains from uphill sprints exclusively before losing the title in the only ITT at the end of the race, or the 2012 Giro where everybody was so close on time that surely it was a super exciting race... except it wasn't, it was an absolute heap of mediocrity with everybody riding in formation on every mountain stages and then Purito attacking to gain five seconds at 250m to go (hyperbole).

Time gaps that put some capable GC riders at a disadvantage are crucial to incentivising action. I know that at the moment many of the best climbers ARE also the best TTers, but while the Wiggins tour is reductio ad absurdum (although he was the 2nd best climber in that race anyway), it's not like there weren't strong TTers contending for the podium when Contador, Evans or Menchov were around. The likes of Carapaz, Bernal, Quintana, López, they should be having to make speculative moves and desperation assaults to try to compete with the more rounded riders. That's how the pure climber has historically contended GCs, the Lucien van Impes, the Federico Bahamontes, the Lucho Herreras, the José Manuel Fuentes, the Claudio Chiappuccis, the Marco Pantanis. Hell, back in the day a fast pace on a flat stage and the best climbers would be turfed out the back in a way that's just not possible today with the increased professionalism and depth in the péloton. That's why they're beloved and there is so much romance in the sport attached to the wispy pure escalador. If they aren't disadvantaged by the TT mileage, then they don't have to attack from deep and the race is duller. The 2022 Tour had big gaps, and that was what made it good, because Pogačar couldn't just overhaul his deficit in ten second chunks in the last kilometre over and over, nor could he just sit in and wait for a TT where he was inevitably going to win like, say, Dumoulin's Giro win where the onus was on Quintana to extend his lead, not Dumoulin to attack it. The other issue is that with limited challenge against the clock, MTF-heavy mountain stages where the earlier climbs are likely to be soft-pedalled or tough flat stages to control, a team can just produce a super-powered mountain train and result in more domestiques being available when they hit the final climbs and less time spent with the leaders working mano a mano.

The ITT is not the only means to force these gaps, but it is the easiest and most obvious way to guarantee them - there are lots of other ways via rouleur challenges, and stages that force teams to balance out the selection, but sometimes those are dependent on location hosts (the cobbles of the north, the ribinou of Brétagne, for example) or the weather (crosswind stages). If ASO unveil their flat stages and there are a number of such challenges - ramps and repechos that will force gaps, crosswind-baiting stretches, dirt roads, bergs and similar that mean that we can expect sizable gaps from flat stages other than from an ITT, then it may not be a problem at all. Just look at the 2010 Giro, a much-loved race, but that only had 37km of ITT, 13 of which was a cat.1 mountain. However, alongside that it had 32km of TTT that forced more balanced selections (and in which Scarponi lost more time than in the rest of the race put together thanks to being pegged to Jackson Rodríguez' pace, an example I've often used against the fairness of the TTT), two 200+ kilometre flat stages in the Netherlands, one of which followed the coast and resulted in major echelon action, and a 200+ kilometre stage with dirt roads (which also had rain). Even before the L'Aquila stage that set the race into overdrive with the 50-man break and lack of control, Vino and Evans had a solid amount of time gained on Basso, Nibali, Scarponi and co., but Vino had lost a domestique and Evans had lost two. Both would be down to four helpers after stage 11. So you can get it right with a lack of time trial mileage and a good balance between the flatter stages and the mountain stages for time gap potential - but it's a much harder job to get right that way.
One consideration is that 30-40 years ago the confrontations between the main contenders were direct, so strengths and weaknesses on the day could be exploited, not the super-orchestrated and controlled team efforts to pilot a rider into the ideal position to attack or defend. And today cycling knows so much about ideal preparation, effort sustainability, etc., that any attempts to go from afar are almost always doomed from the start. So it's a rebus. How do you get action when the racing, no matter what, is so calculated and controlled and the difference between the strongest guys is minimal?
 
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The people claiming that TT distance doesn't matter with the current crop of GC riders seem to ignore or forget about Evenepoel. Given that he has weaker support than Pogacar and especially Vingegaard and is (as of now) more vulnerable in the mountains, the most probable route to a really good Tour is having Evenepoel in yellow heading in to the decisive mountain stages. For that, you need a proper ITT, in this case between the Pyrenees and Alps.

And even without Evenepoel, it's always possible that Pogacar or Vingegaard does a subpar TT which sets you up equally well.
 
The people claiming that TT distance doesn't matter with the current crop of GC riders seem to ignore or forget about Evenepoel. Given that he has weaker support than Pogacar and especially Vingegaard and is (as of now) more vulnerable in the mountains, the most probable route to a really good Tour is having Evenepoel in yellow heading in to the decisive mountain stages. For that, you need a proper ITT, in this case between the Pyrenees and Alps.

Yes, he seems incapable of gaining time in mass starts...
 
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Also, what are u replacing an ITT with?

a sprint or breakaway stage where the top riders sit behind Van Hooydonk, Berg and Ganna?

how does that make it more exciting?

ITTs do the great service of forcing riders out of the protection of their super teams.

at least an ITT will have GC debate. Who lost time, who did better than expected, what will riders need to do now that they lost time.

It seems like they are giving up a sure GC day full of race ramifications simply to delay the outcome to the third week if possible…

how did that work with Giro 2022?

and while having a normal amount of ITT doesn’t ALWAYS make things more interesting, please point to a GT where having almost no ITT made it sublimely thrilling. I cannot think of one. In fact, it is mostly the opposite.

I really don’t get it. They are making decisions on no data at all. It’s like they believe in a theory that actually has no basis.
 
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I don't think the amount of TT Kilometres is a big deal. Last year Vingegaard was 39 seconds from Pogacar at the start of the Granon stage. 8 of those seconds was from a TT. With the top riders we have right now, we do not need many TT Kilometres. Pogacar and Vingegaard is almost as fast as each other. At the 40 Km TT there was also 8 seconds between them. But everybody else was miles behind. The next person from the top 10 (Vlasov) was 2 and a half minute behind them. It isn't the TT that creates the gap, there make them attack. It just send everybody else minutes behind. And it won't prevent Pogacar or Vingegaard from attacking, the want to win, a second place isn't good enough. It just give everybody else a bigger chance, so we wont get a battle between Vingegaard and Pogacar the next 10 years. And riders like Bernal and Carapz (Maybe Mas) there can compet against them in the mountains, will also get a bigger chance to win, so more people would attack.
That's fun and all, but it's completely irrelevant as to what the capabilities (or lack thereof) of the riders present or absent are. Time trialing is an essential part of the game, I'd argue it's the purest form of cycling, and an area that must be properly incorporated in the race, regardless of its startlist.
 
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On the other hand, with the Tour the "race of truth" (as in 50+km) formed a historical component of the event, along with the Alpes and the Pyrennes, occasionally a cobbled stage too. So why not have each and may the best man win? The important thing is that you have a crop of favorites who can deliver the entertainment. Today with Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, etc., you have that magic combination.
 
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6/10, but its kinda hard to rate it only seeing 1/3 of the stages.

Mountains look promising. I think all the lack of time trialing really means is a relatively closer GC behind, but I still see Vingegaard and Pogacar as far and away the best riders, and they are pretty equal against the clock anyways.

Love the start in Basque country and some pretty hard stages in the Pyrenees. Probably closer to a 7, heck maybe even an 8 when whole route is released
 
That's fun and all, but it's completely irrelevant as to what the capabilities (or lack thereof) of the riders present or absent are. Time trialing is an essential part of the game, I'd argue it's the purest form of cycling, and an area that must be properly incorporated in the race, regardless of its startlist.

It used to be in the days of Anquetil but lately and especially last 15 years timetrial has lost it's aura. It's always about high tech science, wind tunnels etc. It's the least pure form of cycling there is nowadays. Riders are spraying stuff on their legs, wearing balaclavas, have teamcars right behind them with 15 bikes and 50 wheels on the roof, putting on longer socks than footballers and taping kinesiotape all over their bodies to gain an advantage. What does this still have to do with cycling? How people can claim this is the purest form of cycling is beyond me.
 
It used to be in the days of Anquetil but lately and especially last 15 years timetrial has lost it's aura. It's always about high tech science, wind tunnels etc. It's the least pure form of cycling there is nowadays. Riders are spraying stuff on their legs, wearing balaclavas, have teamcars right behind them with 15 bikes and 50 wheels on the roof, putting on longer socks than footballers and taping kinesiotape all over their bodies to gain an advantage. What does this still have to do with cycling? How people can claim this is the purest form of cycling is beyond me.
Ok, agreed, but on the other hand it is a matter of governance, although industry and the economics of industry trump governance. And so it is with the world, but I digress.
 
It's actually the hardest TDF route I've seen in a while. I would like to see 250km + stages, but other than that it delivers on that front (by recent standards). Don't think the 10th rider on GC on the 2nd restday will only be ~ 5 minutes behind, like some people expect. (Paraphrased)

I quite like some of the retraced stage profiles on legruppetto.fr and la-flamme-rouge.eu

Stage 19 is not one of them, but it does look like a typical 3rd week breakaway stage, not a sprint. Stage 18 is a 99% sprint, though.

One of those stages should have been a GC stage, but apart from that that I quite like the route.
 
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Just add 20km in the valley and you'll have a decent and long ITT with hilly finale. It would improve both the stage and the route.

Yeah, I also think Prudhomme's comments today regarding TTs are misguided. I don't think it would change much if the stage was 20 kms longer but it would feel more right.

But I definitely don't find it the most important aspect of a GT route.
 
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