Tour de France 2023 Tour de France, Stage 1: Bilbao - Bilbao, 182 km (Spain, Saturday, July 1)

[Ricco']

Until proven otherwise during saturday's stage, I still think stage 2 is better suited to a rider like VdP than stage 1.

 

[yaco]

I think it's clear that the GC guys can drop everyone and win the stage. Pike is just that hard. But who is going to pull if there are only the heads of stage + maybe one small climbing domestique pullin 80% after coming back from being dropped. I think it's really likely that Vingegaard and Pogi are together over the top and then there is no cooperation which brings back guy after guy. There could be then a window of opportunity for a Yates, a Bilbao, a Madouas, a alaphilippe (in shape) to go before Kelderman and van Aert trickle back and control the situation for Jumbo.

It's quite a good stage design because there are so many options. It's also still the first stage of the tour, so it could be a complete crash festival that decimates the favourite field from day 1 or it's a relative nothingburger with no one of the big guy wanting to go all in and we see van Aert sprint against Alaphilipe and MvdP. Im honestly shocked that matthews isn't hear with that start in the basque mountains. He won in Mende, was second in the 2021 Bretagne start and delivered in the last GTs. For me a big mistake that they didn't plan to bring him to that. Would have brought him instead of Juul-Jensen who is in my eyes a bit overrated as a GT team mate.

Matthews is not at the TDF because there are limited chances for for his style of rider - Stage one is too difficult.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I may be completely wrong, but I think riders like MvdP, WvA, Pedersen, Laporte, Trentin, etc., might start the Tour slower than we think, because they are all eyeing Worlds.

They all know that if they are in top shape day 1 of the Tour, and race it hard, they will be past their peak and too fatigued, to be serious contenders for the world title.

Thus I would venture a guess that the riders that have Worlds as a top priority, may start the Tour a little off their top shape, in order to hit their peak the last 8-10 days of the Tour, and be able to carry the shape into Worlds.

I don't know about MVDP, he sure looked like he was in peak shape the past couple or races.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

VDP iterated quite some times now he is feeling really good and same as in the spring basically. That doesn't exclude him from having a bad day, he had a bad day TDF stage 1 in 2021 and won the next day, but, general form should be well enough to give it a try

 

[Pantani_lives]

Could this be the toughest opening stage of a GT ever?

It's a course for the specialist of the hilly classics. Pogacar can win if his wrist is completely healed to handle the pressure on an explosive climb. Alaphilippe in top shape would be another favorite. I wouldn't rule out MvdP, but he'll have a better chance in the second stage. Van Aert will sacrifice himself, but he might still win in a small group sprint. Other candidates are Pidcock, S. Yates, Teuns, Woods and Cosnefroy.

 

[Earns1985]

Could this be the toughest opening stage of a GT ever?

It's a course for the specialist of the hilly classics. Pogacar can win if his wrist is completely healed to handle the pressure on an explosive climb. Alaphilippe in top shape would be another favorite. I wouldn't rule out MvdP, but he'll have a better chance in the second stage. Van Aert will sacrifice himself, but he might still win in a small group sprint. Other candidates are Pidcock, S. Yates, Teuns, Woods and Cosnefroy.

Two interesting questions for a first stage like this one:
1.) Who will try to go in the break. Only absolute outsiders or also strong riders?
2.) Which team will chase the break? In other first stages it´s always the team from the prologue winner or the sprinter teams. But on Saturday? With a 100% Pogacar I would have said, that UAE will chase, but after his injury they might take it slow at the start. Jumbo already want to work at the first day? Perhaps a team from a puncheur like Quick-Step for Alaphilippe or Alpecin for van der Poel?

 

[MrTea1976]

S Yates, Cosnefroy or an Ineos rider would be my picks for the stage. I think Pog will keep his powder dry.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Weather
Overcast, not much wind to speak of.
Max. temp 21C.
Slight chances of a drizzle in the afternoon.

 

[Boehmand]

Two interesting questions for a first stage like this one:
1.) Who will try to go in the break. Only absolute outsiders or also strong riders?
2.) Which team will chase the break? In other first stages it´s always the team from the prologue winner or the sprinter teams. But on Saturday? With a 100% Pogacar I would have said, that UAE will chase, but after his injury they might take it slow at the start. Jumbo already want to work at the first day? Perhaps a team from a puncheur like Quick-Step for Alaphilippe or Alpecin for van der Poel?

I expect Trek to be very active in the Basque country, I would not be surprised to see them go all in to get Skjelmose in yellow, but only if they don't think he can podium in Paris.

Mads Pedersen mentioned to a reporter at the finish of the Danish championships, that yellow on stage 1 is a priority.

Many took that to mean for himself, but I think that is unrealistic (given the last climb), and that he actually meant it was a team goal, rather than a personal one.

It may of course also be Ciccone or Lopez - or even Simmons in a break.

Another team I see trying to control stage 1 is Soudal.

If Alaphilippe is in shape, stage 1 is a great opportunity for them to get him in yellow.

 

[SafeBet]

Could this be the toughest opening stage of a GT ever?

I think Vuelta 2020 opening stage was harder.

 

[Netserk]

Winning attack on Pike: 25 %
Winning attack afterwards (like Nibali in Sheffield): 15 %
Reduced sprint: 55 %
Other: 5 %

Favourites:

Pogi
Van Aert, MvdP, Vingegaard
Alaphilippe, Yates, Ciccone, Madouas, Girmay

 

[tobydawq]

Winning attack on Pike: 25 %
Winning attack afterwards (like Nibali in Sheffield): 15 %
Reduced sprint: 55 %
Other: 5 %

Favourites:

Pogi
Van Aert, MvdP, Vingegaard
Alaphilippe, Yates, Ciccone, Madouas, Girmay

Madouas, Ciccone and Girmay? And which Yates do you mean?

I would name Skjelmose, Bilbao, Aranburu, Cosnefroy and Pidcock instead of those.

And I honestly think Pike is too much for Van Aert and Van der Poel.

 

[Netserk]

I think Pogi dominates most scenarios, but if he were to not win, I think it's most likely if MvdP and WvA makes it back or if Vingegaard drops him or somehow takes him to the line and beats him.

In case an attack of an outsider makes it, I think Madouas, Ciccone and Adam Yates are most likely to be strong enough and given room to do so.

 

[topcat]

Alaphilippe has stage 1 in the bag, so we should end this pointless discussion and start talking about stage 2 (we’ll have to do it in this thread because there isn’t a dedicated stage 2 thread).

 

[Potomac]

Winning attack on Pike: 25 %
Winning attack afterwards (like Nibali in Sheffield): 15 %
Reduced sprint: 55 %
Other: 5 %

Favourites:

Pogi
Van Aert, MvdP, Vingegaard
Alaphilippe, Yates, Ciccone, Madouas, Girmay

Quality post! But you need some American names in there.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Alaphilippe has stage 1 in the bag, so we should end this pointless discussion and start talking about stage 2 (we’ll have to do it in this thread because there isn’t a dedicated stage 2 thread).

Based solely on his performance the other day, he's more likely to throw up than win.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Alaphilippe has stage 1 in the bag, so we should end this pointless discussion and start talking about stage 2 (we’ll have to do it in this thread because there isn’t a dedicated stage 2 thread).

MVDP has stage 2 in the bag, so we would have to move onto stage 3.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Only read to page 2 to see the opinions. I tend to agree with this. Mende usually sees GC contenders drop the puncheurs like MvDP.

I tend to agree with the opinions that Pogi and Vingegaard will gap the rest over Pike then we see who can chase them down in the run to the finish. The other GC riders don't seem explosive enough to hang with Pog/Vingo on that climb.

Doubts over the state of Pogi's wrist means he may be conservative in any attacks or sprint giving Vingegaard the edge. But I suspect a regrouping with a small bunch sprint.

Mende tends to be week 2, even early week 3 and on such an effort the puncheurs stand absolutely no chance. MVDP would probably be gapped by 1.30 in peak condition against last year's Pog and VInge on that climb. A little less for Wout and Alaf.

I think its just a harder Huy, kinda similar to the murito in the Giro and it definitely will do some damage!

 

[Boehmand]

The notion that Pogacar og Vingegaard will do anything but "follow the other GC riders" on stage 1, seems weird to me.

I don't see any of the GC teams do anything special in terms of their captains on the stage, they have bigger fish to fry later in the Tour.

They may give other riders the freedom to pursue the stage win, but for the GC captains it's a stage to get through safely, without expending too much energy.

 

[Earns1985]

The notion that Pogacar og Vingegaard will do anything but "follow the other GC riders" on stage 1, seems weird to me.

I don't see any of the GC teams do anything special in terms of their captains on the stage, they have bigger fish to fry later in the Tour.

They may give other riders the freedom to pursue the stage win, but for the GC captains it's a stage to get through safely, without expending too much energy.

It´s enough, that one dangerous GC rider will try something, then everybody has to follow. And the first yellow jersey is up there, so if Pogacar or Vingegaard don´t go for it, another rider will definitely try...

 

[hayneplane]

I expect Trek to be very active in the Basque country, I would not be surprised to see them go all in to get Skjelmose in yellow.

Mads Pedersen mentioned to a reporter at the finish of the Danish championships, that yellow on stage 1 is a priority.

Many took that to mean for himself, but I think that is unrealistic (given the last climb), and that he actually meant it was a team goal, rather than a personal one.

It may of course also be Ciccone or Lopez - or even Simmons in a break.

Another team I see trying to control stage 1 is Soudal.

If Alaphilippe is in shape, stage 1 is a great opportunity for them to get him in yellow.

Trek should go for the breakaway with Pedersen for a leg up in the Green Jersey standings and a chance that if the break stays away he can be close enough to regain contact in the run in to the finish. Ciccone is another who may not be too closely marked by Jumbo/UAE.

Any durable punchy type should be looking to anticipate rather than waiting to be left behind by the Pogacar wattbomb.

Vuelta 2020 was probably a harder 1st stage and that did a glorious amount of damage to GC contenders on the final climb but that was originally intended to be Stage 4 after a foreign start in Holland.

 

[Boehmand]

It´s enough, that one dangerous GC rider will try something, then everybody has to follow. And the first yellow jersey is up there, so if Pogacar or Vingegaard don´t go for it, another rider will definitely try...

But none of them will.

None of those aiming for the podium in Paris, have a particular interest to have to defend yellow from stage 2, and the time differences will be miniscule.

They will view it as a pointless waste of energy.

 

[Boehmand]

Trek should go for the breakaway with Pedersen for a leg up in the Green Jersey standings and a chance that if the break stays away he can be close enough to regain contact in the run in to the finish. Ciccone is another who may not be too closely marked by Jumbo/UAE.

Any durable punchy type should be looking to anticipate rather than waiting to be left behind by the Pogacar wattbomb.

Vuelta 2020 was probably a harder 1st stage and that did a glorious amount of damage to GC contenders on the final climb but that was originally intended to be Stage 4 after a foreign start in Holland.

Pedersen is not riding for green. It would cost way too much energy, day after day, and compromise his season goal: Worlds.

I think it is more likely it will be Simmons in the break, and Ciccone on the final climb. It might be Skjelmose too, but only if they don't think he is a podium candidate in Paris, and are looking for the early success because he is in stellar form going in.

I don't think we will see the Pogacar watt bomb, it would be him repeating last years mistakes, where he spent way too much energy week 1.

 

[Maestro Mello]

But none of them will.

None of those aiming for the podium in Paris, have a particular interest to have to defend yellow from stage 2, and the time differences will be miniscule.

They will view it as a pointless waste of energy.

So in fact, you're telling that if there's a serious chance of riding in the Yellow Jersey once in the Tour de France, biggest boy dreams ever, none of the better climbers/puncheurs outside Pogi or Vingy will try? If there's one opportunity, it's this one and like someone already said; if one GC rider starts, the rest of them will automatically follow.

 

[search]

It might be Skjelmose too, but only if they don't think he is a podium candidate in Paris, and are looking for the early success because he is in stellar form going in.

he should obviously go for it. The chance to end up on the podium is minimal anyway.

And that applies for basically everyone apart from Vingegaard and Pogacar, who is yet to do a defensive race.