46th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 17, 2011

[Dekker_Tifosi]

does anybody consider Nuyens a probably top3?

Too many guys are better than him on the Cauberg. Maybe if he gets into a group like that of 2009 (ivanov,kroon, gesink back then), then he can get top 3 or even win.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Too many guys are better than him on the Cauberg. Maybe if he gets into a group like that of 2009 (ivanov,kroon, gesink back then), then he can get top 3 or even win.

That race he got 5th of the peloton sprint...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That race he got 5th of the peloton sprint...

Which, as I pointed out, means there are too many guys ahead of him on the Cauberg.. considering many others didn't even contest the sprint anymore since it wasn't for the win.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

True, but he doesn't need a very small group at the start of the Cauberg to get top 3.
He should be able to do that in a medium group of 15-20 also (depending on who's in it of course)

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Which, as I pointed out, means there are too many guys ahead of him on the Cauberg.. considering many others didn't even contest the sprint anymore since it wasn't for the win.

regardless he did pretty well there.

If he times it right, he could place pretty high.

If martens has form, this race suits him more then the others.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

True, but he doesn't need a very small group at the start of the Cauberg to get top 3.
He should be able to do that in a medium group of 15-20 also (depending on who's in it of course)

Definately disagree on that. I don't think Nuyens can ever get a top 3 in a group of 15-20 on the Cauberg when it's a sprint for the win with every top contender there.
Not a chance.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

I think you misunderstood. (depending on who's in it).
You said he could only top 3 when he starts in a group of 3. I say that's not true, he even got 5th in a peloton sprint for 4th on the Cauberg. He's faster than most of the peloton, on a full peloton with all the contenders, I don't think there are 10 faster for the moment. So in a smaller group (15-20), he definitely could get top 3. (depending on who's in it)

 

[auscyclefan94]

Gilbert will have to win by sprinting up the Cauberg. The other teams will mark him heavily and if he goes solo, they will chase him down. I personally see something like 2009 (a pair of 2nd tier favourites go away) or 2010 (a cauberg bunch kick) happening.

Katusha should do well. They are the strongest overall team.

 

[Ferminal]

Gilbert will have to win by sprinting up the Cauberg.

Well that's the easiest way he can win, no one can beat him in the sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Well that's the easiest way he can win, no one can beat him in the sprint.

But everyone will look to him to chase down the moves that come from the Schleck's, Katusha, Gesink, etc. It will be tough for Gilbert to control the race.

 

[The Hitch]

But everyone will look to him to chase down the moves that come from the Schleck's, Katusha, Gesink, etc. It will be tough for Gilbert to control the race.

He mangaed it last year.

 

[Ferminal]

But everyone will look to him to chase down the moves that come from the Schleck's, Katusha, Gesink, etc. It will be tough for Gilbert to control the race.

Yeh well those attacks have to come, attack him, don't wait for him to attack.

The problem is, even if other teams want to get dirty and put the heat on the climbs in the last 30km or so, Gilbert is good at that too. If it's raced like FW he will win for sure. If it's raced like L-B-L he will probably win too.

The teams with two options - an attacker and finisher are in the best position to beat him, have your finisher sitting in the main group doing zero work whilst hoping OPL/Gilbert are working overtime to contain things.

 

[Sasquatch]

Franky boy.

Kolobnev, Ivanov and Cummings aren't being talked about much.

 

[search]

He mangaed it last year.

but Evans was extremely strong last year, closing every gap for Kroon.

Keeping it together might have helped Gilbert at the end even if he was victim of that pursuit himself in between.

 

[la.margna]

could Gilbert be facing the Cancellara dilemma?
The other teams not wanting to take him to the final climb as he is too strong for everybody?
and an outsider/2nd tier/group benefitting?

 

[will10]

Gilbert was heavily marked last year and won comfortably. He covered most moves himself and still had plenty left to whup everyone on the Cauberg. I see the same on Sunday.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeh well those attacks have to come, attack him, don't wait for him to attack.

The problem is, even if other teams want to get dirty and put the heat on the climbs in the last 30km or so, Gilbert is good at that too. If it's raced like FW he will win for sure. If it's raced like L-B-L he will probably win too.

The teams with two options - an attacker and finisher are in the best position to beat him, have your finisher sitting in the main group doing zero work whilst hoping OPL/Gilbert are working overtime to contain things.

I don't think he is such a certainty like you are saying he is. If he is marked like FC was in the cobbled classics then he will have a very hard time. Gilbert can't mark everyone and he is not such a certainty if it comes to a 'cauberg kick'.

 

[boomcie]

He bossed it last year.

Fixed it for you.

I don't think he is such a certainty like you are saying he is. If he is marked like FC was in the cobbled classics then he will have a very hard time. Gilbert can't mark everyone and he is not such a certainty if it comes to a 'cauberg kick'.

Now if all his contenders are as naive to believe this, we've got ourself a winner for sure.

 

[Ferminal]

Evans out.

http://www.cadelevans.com.au/cadelsdiary.aspx

So nothing until Romandie.

 

[Moondance]

Evans FTW.

Well, that went well.

I guess there´s nothing left to do but curse Gilbert as well, so Gilbert FTW

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gilbert was heavily marked last year and won comfortably. He covered most moves himself and still had plenty left to whup everyone on the Cauberg. I see the same on Sunday.

But ultimately luckily that BMC chased down Kolobnev, otherwise he'd still have lost.

See the point? You can be by far the strongest and still not win the Amstel.
Ask Boogerd

 

[theyoungest]

But ultimately luckily that BMC chased down Kolobnev, otherwise he'd still have lost.

See the point? You can be by far the strongest and still not win the Amstel.
Ask Boogerd

I admire your attempts to still make it somewhat exciting, but Gilbert is a) smarter than Boogerd, b) stronger than Boogerd, c) more explosive than Boogerd, and d) a far better sprinter than Boogerd. Gilbert has a much smaller chance of ending up in all those different scenarios of losing the race that Boogerd got himself into.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ofcourse, he is all of that. But he can still lose.

LBL 2010 pretty much made that clear. Same scenario as AGR with Kolobnev, but with aid from Vino.
That can happen quite as well in AGR (and has happened before).

Why do you think Gilbert is shouting so hard in the press he needs his teammates to be good? He is afraid of the same scenario of LBL 2010 repeating itself

 

[Cobblestoned]

Evans out.

http://www.cadelevans.com.au/cadelsdiary.aspx

So nothing until Romandie.

Oh damn.
I wanted make a thread after race: cobblestoned meeting ACF's idol, with photo added on which I hug cuddles.

 

[maltiv]

Well that's the easiest way he can win, no one can beat him in the sprint.

I think Greg Van Avarmaet or even Peter Sagan could beat him in the sprint.

Initially I thought ACF was being ridiculous when he said that GVA could win Amstel but looking at how he has developed this season it looks possible.