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The Hitch said:
Not really that hard to address. He didn't win, did he? So a Canc in the form of his life didn't win. He sure looked the strongest at points, but he ended 5th at 30 seconds back.
To answer the question, I think neither of them ever will. I don't see Gilbert winning PR and he still has to win those other 3 too. MSR will require lots of luck for one. Cancellara already has 3, but has 2 left that I doubt he can manage. Except for Mendrisio (which you can put as once in a life time on home soil boost) is there anything that indicates he can win Liege and Lombardi?
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Moondance said:
Yes i did write that in jest but there is a second point you might be ignoring. Fabian did win that tt. He did crush his competitors. The tt was on Thursday. The Road race was on Sunday. Who else in that Sunday top 20 did the tt?
So no he didnt win the road race in Mendrisio, but then again the form he showed, riding on the front up the climbs, eventually coming 5th, was very impressive, especially when you consider he crushed the tt just 3 days earlier.
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The Hitch said:
Is it really that incredible to hold your form for 3 days? Cancellara not winning in Mendrisio had nothing to do with his form anyway. He arguably was the strongest there.
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I think the main argument against Gilbert is that he still has 4 of them to win while Cancellara only has 2. Even at times when Gilbert could be a favourite to win even LBL there is no guarantee that he ever will and that's probably the easiest of the remaining for him to win. Given the competition out there for every race having already won three of them is a huge advantage.
Eventhough Cancellara didn't win in Mendrisio he still showed that he can be competitive in though races so it's not like winning LBL is some outrageous claim like Cavendish winning the Tour or something.
I think the odds of winning the five monuments goes perhaps something like this:
Neither of them: 60%
Cancellara : 30%
Gilbert 10%
Eventhough Cancellara didn't win in Mendrisio he still showed that he can be competitive in though races so it's not like winning LBL is some outrageous claim like Cavendish winning the Tour or something.
I think the odds of winning the five monuments goes perhaps something like this:
Neither of them: 60%
Cancellara : 30%
Gilbert 10%
- Aug 5, 2010
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i voted for gilbert but i don't really think any of them will get it. for once i just can see canc beating the likes of cunego valverde shlecks and contador on the lbl and the GDL. Gilbert will need lots and lots of luck for paris roubaix and MSR. tho if he is super strong for MSR he may get. for roubaix tho he will need luck. something like boonen being injured, flecha falling and hushov having a puncture in a key moment. otherwise his win on roubaix is even less likely then canc's win on lbl.
he says in the arcticle that by focusing on the RVV this year he will try his luck on the msr. also he has proven in the past that he can be strong in both the RVV and the lbl. so i wouldn't be surprised if he won both this year
also didn't sean kelly won all of them cept RVV where he finished 2nd a bunch of timeS? poor fella
he says in the arcticle that by focusing on the RVV this year he will try his luck on the msr. also he has proven in the past that he can be strong in both the RVV and the lbl. so i wouldn't be surprised if he won both this year
also didn't sean kelly won all of them cept RVV where he finished 2nd a bunch of timeS? poor fella
- Jul 16, 2010
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Let's not forget that Gilbert is good in a sprint with a small group, so I wouldn't rule him out for P-R that fast.
He kicked Boonen's *** at Paris-Tour.
He kicked Boonen's *** at Paris-Tour.
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It's more likely that Gilbert breaks the sprinters at the poggio and hangs on the wheels at P-R than Cancellara outclimbs and sprints riders at LBL or Lombardia.
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El Pistolero said:
Against the ardennes specialists he has a clear advantage but against the Roubaix crowd he is hardly faster than most of them. He beat Boonen once but Boonen is still faster 7-8 times out of 10. Hushovd is also faster and so is probably Breschel and Pozzatto as well.
Having said that he's still not the slowest. If he does get in the right break with the right riders then he can surely win. A group with Hoste, Leukemans, Flecha, Hammond, Ballan and Gilbert could probably work together and stay away and in that group Gilbert would probably be the favourite in a sprint.
ingsve said:
But if we ignore Mendrisio for a moment and call it a once in a lifetime occurrence. Is there anything else indication Cancellara can win LBL? Mendrisio keeps coming up, but everything was in his favor then. Form of his life, home soil, etc. And according to the report on this side, he didn't attack uphill, but instead on the downhill. I don't remember him showing anything else indicating he can do well in LBL, let alone Lombardi.
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Dutchsmurf said:
Tour de Suisse 2009.
Mendrisio keeps coming up because that was pretty much the only time Cancellara went for a hilly course. And i dont know if that was the form of his life. 5 months later he won RVV and PR by miles.
Canc is good at producing form. Mendrisio shows us that when he aims his form at hilly classics, he wont neccesarily fail miserably.
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Magnus said:
Riding in criterium like races(worlds and olympics) is also totally different than Giro di Lombardia and LBL.
Cancellara also can't sprint and he isn't really the explosive type. Gilbert would drop him easily on the many hills in LBL.
LBL is a race that favors the more explosive climbers like Vino, Valverde, Gilbert, etc
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Dekker_Tifosi said:Gilbert now said he will focus on winning Flanders in 2011.
So...we'll see it now
Can't wait for that clash of titans next year. Boonen vs Gilbert(assuming Cancellara doesn't enter)
The Flemish vs. the Walloons at our biggest race. Going to be quite the spectacle.
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Dutchsmurf said:
As mentioned Tour de Suisse 2009 is one example and I would also add some of his rides in the Tour for the Schlecks. There has been a few times when he has done some really strong work far up the mountains which is far more than a mere cobbled specialist can do.
Noone is saying that he will ever be the absolute favourite in these races. People are merely dismissing the notion that he has no shot at all.
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ingsve said:
Wouldn't Cancellara working for Sastre in the Tour of 2008 be a way better example?
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