Re: Re:
rghysens said:
Escarabajo said:
What a horrible route. So now the ITT will decide the race.
As happened last year, when the winner of the itt overcame his deficit suffered in road stages. Even more so: the 2nd of the itt jumped from 6 to 3 in GC.
An ITT is always a key element of a one-week race, and this is no different.
However, this has been an abnormally flat edition of País Vasco, with an abnormally long time trial for the race's recent history. The nearest was the Markina-Xemein TT in 2014, but that had two climbs in it and you had two significant stages opening up time gaps - the Arrate MTF and the Ordizia stage with the super steep late ramp, while the Markina stage was a bit like the Donostia stage this year, only coming AFTER Arrate so people already had time gaps to try to make up.
In terms of the "everything down to the final TT" element of the race, 2011 is nearest in recent memory, because conditions led to a super fast ascent of Arrate which didn't open up much in the way of time gaps (I think that year's ascent means that Xavi Tondó still holds the record on the conventional ascent), and Klöden took the GC almost entirely based on the time he took in that TT - in the 24km test around Zalla he beat Gesink by 41", Horner by 46", Kiryienka by 51", Intxausti by 54", Tondó by 57", Samu by 1'08", Vino by 1'21" and López by 1'22"; in the GC he beat Horner and Gesink by 47", Intxausti and Tondó by 1'03", Samu by 1'08", López by 1'28", Vino by 1'41" and Kiryienka by 1'54" - you can see that of the top GC men, only Kiryienka had dropped marked time before the TT. But even then, you had the super steep finale in Zumarraga with the Alto de la Antigua just 3km from the line, with Purito, Samu, Horner and Klöden gaining time, although the Lekunberri stage, apart from Vasya's late solo, was more or less typical of this year's País Vasco mountain stages.
2012 was to me one of the worst courses in País Vasco's history, with the first two stages not being decisive at all (freaking JJ Rojas won one of them!) but even then they were smart enough to put Arrate on stage 3, meaning that time gaps were set and encouraging riders who had a deficit to make moves on the following stages. The Ibardin stage was basically a puncheur finish stuck on top of a 4-5% grinder, but did open up some small time gaps as Samu and Purito duelled, then we got the remarkable Oñati stage with the uncategorized Garagaltza climb on the run-in barely appearing as a pimple on the route map; Kišerlovski went from far out because the heavens opened and he gambled everything on that stage, and even when caught on the lame run-in, Sky hadn't recognized the uncategorized climb on the map and toasted all their puncheurs trying to lead out a sprint, causing people to be dropped in the run-in. And then, the TT was only 18km so while it settled the GC at the top end, it wasn't overbalanced in the results.
In 2010, the final TT settled the GC, with Horner defeating Valverde entirely because of it. But that was an edition for the ages, with Valverde turning a seemingly innocuous Zierbena stage into an important one, the Arrate stage being a really strong one and then double Aia in the final road stage with total carnage emerging and Amets Txurruka being denied a first career win after crashing on some oil on the road (that also took care of Robert Gesink in the bunch later), the diminutive escalador gritting his teeth and riding to the finish with a broken collarbone, his polka dots ripped to shreds while the Basque fans willed him up the monster ramps in Aia.
There are more problems with the 2017 route than this, though. There were two more or less flat stages, or at least as flat as stages in the Itzulia ever get. This was a parallel to the 2012 route's problems, as they were the first two stages. There are often two stages that, if not sprints, are similar in nature, such as the Viana stage in 2010 or the Vitória-Gasteiz stages over the Alto de Zaldiarán. But when they are the first two stages - and when the categorized climbs are so far out - they tend to be far tamer than when they've come a couple of stages in. When they're a bit later you get stronger breakaways because of people losing time, and even though people know not to expect decisive GC attacks on climbs like Zaldiarán, they do mean that there is a bit of intrigue in the run-in. Next up, Arrate was on stage 5. I get that Eibar ponying up to host the finale of the race means Arrate almost has to be in that position, but the problem is that with no significant timegaps beforehand, nobody is going to make any moves before the final climb because they're petrified of exhausting themselves before the TT if it doesn't work, whereas if they've already lost time then there's less to be lost from being speculative like J-Rod was in 2010 or Kišerlovski in 2012.
I'm not saying a mountaintop finish was needed, far from it. Nothing inherently wrong with the finishes in Donostia and Bilbao (although obviously there was a theme this year, with each regional capital being visited); but if we couldn't put the Eibar stage 3rd and then do Donostia, Bilbao and the TT (which I appreciate isn't really the case because of the format of País Vasco, where stage 6 is invariably a TT around the finish town of stage 5, and stage 1 tends to start and finish in the same place) then we could at least have beefed up the run-in to one of them. With Bilbao we saw how El Vivero on its own isn't going to create a significant time gap if only climbed the once, because they did it in 2015, and Michael Matthews won, with 60 people (plus those caught up in the crash) on the same time as him. San Sebastián gives the opportunity to use the Bordako Tontorra climb from recent editions of the Clásica if they want time gaps, they won't be huge, but they'll create enough separation to make people wonder about going earlier or riding Arrate more aggressively (to whit, they could have climbed Arrate from this side, descended through the conventional side back to Eibar to put it twice in the late part of the stage, which would have been more interesting). How about using one of the other sides of Aia to climb (they couldn't use "that" side without looping over themselves, but the first part of the double climb would be possible) before Mendizorrotz or Bordako Tontorra? Or how about going to San Sebastián via an easier, shorter route then going over Jaizkibel and Erlaitz? Or how about the same stage as they did, but after descending the conventional side of Monte Igeldo, climbing the short twisty punchy ascent to the Mirador del Monte Igeldo?