57th Vuelta al Pais Vasco 3-8 April 2017

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

But Contador's TT is still good. Maybe he can bounce back there.

Depends on the the TT, really. Not sure if this medium length flat one suits him. Same for Valverde. Is it technical?

I could maybe see one of the shadow favorites win this race rather than Contador, Valverde or Henao if it's a straight ahead TT. Gaps could be substantial. Unless the favorites go all out in the hardest road stage(s), of course.

Some good TTists at the start who can climb well enough. Kwiatkowski could be dangerous, if he does indeed target this.

The one in Andalucia was flatter. And Valverde/Contador was still able to be 2nd and 3rd. They are both underrated as rouleurs. Easily beating specialists like Brändle, Ludvigsson and Kiryienka.

Even Henao should do well on a TT like this. The one in Paris-Nice was a bit easier and he was still in top 10.

Easier for who? Easier for Henao, I agree. This TT has way more flat km's which is not good for Henao

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

The one in Andalucia was flatter. And Valverde/Contador was still able to be 2nd and 3rd. They are both underrated as rouleurs. Easily beating specialists like Brändle, Ludvigsson and Kiryienka.

The Andalusia TT was a much more "explosive" effort at 12k or so. Doesn't say much about their performance in longer, mostly (false) flat TTs.

IMO they both need either a shorter, or longer TT to excel. Or a harder one of similar length. Average speed of the winner will probably be fairly high in this one. Again, unless it's a technical course, in which case the above doesn't apply.

 

[Aguirre]

The TT is a hard one. First 6 km average 6,5 % then 6 o t km of descent not very technical. It is good to use a 56 ring for pros. The last 10-15 km are not fully flat, there are two hills if they go in a big road, if they choose the small roads there are couple villages in the middle. I won't put Roglic or Martin into the favourits but rather Contador, Valverde.

Regarding the stage in Donostia, if it goes hard, there will be splits for sure. 2000 meters up in the last 90 km.

Descend is a bit risky if wet.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

The one in Andalucia was flatter. And Valverde/Contador was still able to be 2nd and 3rd. They are both underrated as rouleurs. Easily beating specialists like Brändle, Ludvigsson and Kiryienka.

The Andalusia TT was a much more "explosive" effort at 12k or so. Doesn't say much about their performance in longer, mostly (false) flat TTs.

IMO they both need either a shorter, or longer TT to excel. Or a harder one of similar length. Average speed of the winner will probably be fairly high in this one. Again, unless it's a technical course, in which case the above doesn't apply.

Average speed <50kph = Contador among the best is a rule of thumb that hardly ever lets me down.

Hard to say what the average speed will be but I'm guessing around 44-45kph

 

[WheelofGear]

The climb should in the TT should be very irregular. That's good news for the more explosive riders and not for the diesels. Diesel climbers need a steady pace and a regular rhythm.

I think Contador and Valverde are the favorites for that TT.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

The GC Contenders
Alejandro Valverde
Alberto Contador
Primoz Roglic
Sergio Henao
Julian Alaphilippe
Simon Spilak
Ion Izagirre
Michal Kwiatkowski
Dan Martin
Romain Bardet
Simon Yates

Dan Martin is not riding this one
Cannot see Kwaitkowski bothering the GC but maybe a stage...same for Allaphillipe

I would take these out and put in Uran & Ulissi in their stead

Also a few others could break the top 10 like Talansky , Kreuziger

But looks like for me its between Valverde, Henao & Contador

I'd keep Alaphillippe there because you never know what he will produce. Steep climbs don't tend to be the problem for him, but long ones.

I agree about Alaphillippe; not sure why he isn't being discussed much. He smashed everyone in the ITT at P-N and that had a climb. If he still has that form then he is a huge danger. Arrate is super steep, not long; think that Julian will lose seconds there rather than minutes.

 

[Arredondo]

Boring route. Really disappointing considering the fact Pais Vasco always delivers. PV without steep muro's isn't PV really

Normally Contador performs better in PV then in Catalunya. And Bala, despite the fact he rode well in this race, traditionally suffers more in Itzulia then in any other stage race. But in his Catalunya-shape, he has one once in a lifetime opportunity really to finally this race.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: Re:

The GC Contenders
Alejandro Valverde
Alberto Contador
Primoz Roglic
Sergio Henao
Julian Alaphilippe
Simon Spilak
Ion Izagirre
Michal Kwiatkowski
Dan Martin
Romain Bardet
Simon Yates

Dan Martin is not riding this one
Cannot see Kwaitkowski bothering the GC but maybe a stage...same for Allaphillipe

I would take these out and put in Uran & Ulissi in their stead

Also a few others could break the top 10 like Talansky , Kreuziger

But looks like for me its between Valverde, Henao & Contador

I'd keep Alaphillippe there because you never know what he will produce. Steep climbs don't tend to be the problem for him, but long ones.

I agree about Alaphillippe; not sure why he isn't being discussed much. He smashed everyone in the ITT at P-N and that had a climb. If he still has that form then he is a huge danger. Arrate is super steep, not long; think that Julian will lose seconds there rather than minutes.

Bookies make Alaphillipe favourite, Valverde second favourite, Contador third favourite.

I think maybe they are putting a lot of emphasis on his PN TT

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The GC Contenders
Alejandro Valverde
Alberto Contador
Primoz Roglic
Sergio Henao
Julian Alaphilippe
Simon Spilak
Ion Izagirre
Michal Kwiatkowski
Dan Martin
Romain Bardet
Simon Yates

Dan Martin is not riding this one
Cannot see Kwaitkowski bothering the GC but maybe a stage...same for Allaphillipe

I would take these out and put in Uran & Ulissi in their stead

Also a few others could break the top 10 like Talansky , Kreuziger

But looks like for me its between Valverde, Henao & Contador

I'd keep Alaphillippe there because you never know what he will produce. Steep climbs don't tend to be the problem for him, but long ones.

I agree about Alaphillippe; not sure why he isn't being discussed much. He smashed everyone in the ITT at P-N and that had a climb. If he still has that form then he is a huge danger. Arrate is super steep, not long; think that Julian will lose seconds there rather than minutes.

Bookies make Alaphillipe favourite, Valverde second favourite, Contador third favourite.

I think maybe they are putting a lot of emphasis on his PN TT

That's crazy. I really like Alaphilippe, and think he has an outside shot in this race. But favourite ahead of Contador, Valverde or even Izagirre in his home race?! No way! I'd be very surprsied if he didn't finish behind all of those three in the TT - it's twice the length of the one in Paris-Nice.

 

[WheelofGear]

The bookies don't know anything about cycling. They don't even look at the profiles in detail.

I remember them having Sagan as the favorite for San Sebastian with the 20% muro once.

 

[HelloDolly]

I don't like Allaphillipe & Kwait for this race because I think their form will have dipped after hard racing and before a return for the Ardennes

While Izagirre bros, Valverde , Contador and Henao will I think being older and more seasoned be still up there

Everyone is forgetting Uran , who is good (and fast) on the steep stuff and is looking good this year so far
Also Talansky should be good and can TT very well
Yates & Kreuz and one or two others will also be up there too

 

[WheelofGear]

Yeah, Henao was third in the TT last year and is in even better shape now. He gained 1:20 on Spilak last year in the time trial. And beated Pinot with almost a minute.

It's his favorite race. He peaks for this race. No way he is not gonna podium this year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Yeah, Henao was third in the TT last year and is in even better shape now. He gained 1:20 on Spilak last year in the time trial. And beated Pinot with almost a minute.

It's his favorite race. He peaks for this race. No way he is not gonna podium this year.

Last year's TT vs. this year's. Spot the differences.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yeah, Henao was third in the TT last year and is in even better shape now. He gained 1:20 on Spilak last year in the time trial. And beated Pinot with almost a minute.

It's his favorite race. He peaks for this race. No way he is not gonna podium this year.

Last year's TT vs. this year's. Spot the differences.

Plus last year the TT was really wet and Henao was one of the few riders who went flat out on the descent, taking quite a few risks; while the likes of Quintana soft pedalled and took it quite easy.
I guess it is Pais Vasco, so there's a good chance of rain again this year , but it definitely helped his time last year.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

The bookies don't know anything about cycling. They don't even look at the profiles in detail.

I remember them having Sagan as the favorite for San Sebastian with the 20% muro once.

don't worry. once people bet some money on valverde and contador, the odds will instantly get closer to reality.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Plus last year the TT was really wet and Henao was one of the few riders who went flat out on the descent, taking quite a few risks; while the likes of Quintana soft pedalled and took it quite easy.
I guess it is Pais Vasco, so there's a good chance of rain again this year , but it definitely helped his time last year.

Yes, Quintana and especially Contador were very careful. Henao went all out. In fact, I remember him saying his strategy was to take it easy uphill and push hard on the downhill and the flat run-in. Still think that was strange.

 

[Anderis]

First stage looks like a typical sprint stage, but almost no sprinters on the startlist.

 

[Stan955]

Should be easy win for Sam Bennett or Ben Swift

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Should be easy win for Sam Bennett or Ben Swift

And Matthews.

 

[ferryman]

Re:

Should be easy win for Sam Bennett or Ben Swift

Paddy Power has Matthews fav @ 2/1, Bennett @ 7/2 followed by Swift @ 8/1!!

 

[WheelofGear]

Anyone but Gerrans 2.0. I'll be cheering for Bennett, even Swift this time.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Anyone but Gerrans 2.0. I'll be cheering for Bennett, even Swift this time.

I don't understand. Why would you be cheering for Bennett over Matthews? Matthews is a much more entertaining rider than Bennett.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Anyone but Gerrans 2.0. I'll be cheering for Bennett, even Swift this time.

I don't understand. Why would you be cheering for Bennett over Matthews? Matthews is a much more entertaining rider than Bennett.

He is a wheelsucker. Bennett is just a sprinter.

 

[SafeBet]

I would love to see Richeze win.

 

[dacooley]

arrate climb is a tricky one. we can have really big gaps like last year however 5 or 8 guys finishing same time wouldn't be a surprise either. contador is a top favorite. followed by valverde and ion izaguirre.