Vuelta a España 76th La Vuelta ciclista a España 2021 (August 14 - September 5)

[Escarabajo]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Would prefer Valverde to go for stages instead of overall.

 

[JosefK]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

I think the difference in the forecasts might come down to Carapaz having raced the Tour very hard for all 3 weeks--no stages off. But he's a great rider (good enough recent form to win the Olympics RR), so who knows.

 

[Escarabajo]

The stage 20 has a great design in my opinion. Something like this is what we should have at the Tour in the last week.

 

[Cagalitroso]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

Why are you surprised? This is the same forum who said Carapaz had no chance at the Olympics and which also gave Remco his first Giro before running it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Why are you surprised? This is the same forum who said Carapaz had no chance at the Olympics and which also gave Remco his first Giro before running it.

Touche!

 

[johnymax]

All I know is we are in for a Roglstomp of epic proportions on stage 1 ITT.

 

[Rackham]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

No. The only "extrapolation" regarding the Olympics TT is a reassurance Roglic recovered his form & his back was no longer an issue (after the Tour crash).

Because all things being equal, in the Tour de France most predictions placed Roglic higher than Carapaz so it's normal to see similar predictions here. To reduce Roglic down to that Olympic TT is reductive, i.e. this is the same rider who smashed everyone (who wasn't Pogacar) in Itzulia Basque Country in April (including Carapaz who was non-existent) & dominated Paris-Nice as well.

 

[BigCoward]

This Ineos team almost looks too strong on paper, too many leaders

No different from tour, just need 3 of them to crash in first 3 days to confirm who they are backing.

 

[Pantani_lives]

¡Es hora de las sandías!

Roglic, Bernal
Landa, Carapaz
Mas, López, Vlasov, Carthy
Schachmann, Aru, Bardet, Padun
Kruijswijk, A. Yates, Urán, De la Cruz, G. Martin

Roglic can make up two minutes in the final time trial, so it will be hard for the climbers to take a big enough lead. Bernal will be the leader of a strong Ineos, assuming that Carapaz can't stretch his top shape for another three weeks. Panda and Ladun are another strong duo, but probably not constant enough to win the overall. Movistar will need to come up with a strategical masterplan.

 

[Soranos]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

I also have Roglic as No.2 GT-rider in the world but I assume the difference between no.1 and no.2 to be a lot bigger than between Roglic and the next group of riders.
I just consider Pogacar to be in a tier all by himself and he would be my favorite on pretty much any type of mountain stage and a lot of TT parcours ( in context of a GT). I cannot say the same about Roglic , he is mere human in that he also has to conserve his efforts. To be quiete frank, I think for his reputation crashing out of the tour was not the worst thing as I presume that he would have been just as helpless as the rest in the end ( probably 1 or 2 minutes closer than Vinegaard though).

 

[Red Rick]

I am a bit surprised at the odds to be honest. People are just extrapolating the Olympics time trial to the Vuelta that's all. Both under same conditions Roglic had problems handling Carapaz last year. Roglic is not Pogacar. Not at all if you ask me. But we'll see. I have been proved wrong many times.

I could argue that Bernal only won the Giro with 1'30 ahead of Caruso.

Why people think last years Vuelta is a slight on Roglic instead of the guys that couldn't beat him I'll never understand.

 

[Soranos]

I could argue that Bernal only won the Giro with 1'30 ahead of Caruso.

Why people think last years Vuelta is a slight on Roglic instead of the guys that couldn't beat him I'll never understand.

Carapaz also was a late addition to the vuelta after Ineos lost faith in Froome. He had also ridden the Tour in particular during the last week as he went stage hunting on 3 days and tried for the poka dot while finishing just outside the top 10.

Nobody is suggesting that Roglic was at his best but it is this narrative that a super tired Roglic beat a peak Carapaz that quiete a few people have a problem with. Roglic was the deserved winner but there were definitely a few moments when this could have turned. I do not refer to Moviestar, but on Angliru Kuss was crucial and saved Roglic from losing more time. On stage 17 Carapaz probably should have attacked earlier as well, it was clear earlier on that climb that Roglic had a bad day. Not to mention that this might have been the weakest Ineos team support for their leader in a long, long time.

 

[BigCoward]

I think for his reputation crashing out of the tour was not the worst thing as I presume that he would have been just as helpless as the rest in the end ( probably 1 or 2 minutes closer than Vinegaard though).

TBF Vinegaard would have been 1 or 2 mins closer than Vinegaard if he hadn't had to babysit Roglic earlier in race.

 

[Red Rick]

Carapaz also was a late addition to the vuelta after Ineos lost faith in Froome. He had also ridden the Tour in particular during the last week as he went stage hunting on 3 days and tried for the poka dot while finishing just outside the top 10.

Nobody is suggesting that Roglic was at his best but it is this narrative that a super tired Roglic beat a peak Carapaz that quiete a few people have a problem with. Roglic was the deserved winner but there were definitely a few moments when this could have turned. I do not refer to Moviestar, but on Angliru Kuss was crucial and saved Roglic from losing more time. On stage 17 Carapaz probably should have attacked earlier as well, it was clear earlier on that climb that Roglic had a bad day. Not to mention that this might have been the weakest Ineos team support for their leader in a long, long time.

Carapaz' prep was less than ideal but it was definitely more ideal than being flying from early August and trying to hold that to November. For Carapaz I think it's more telling that Vingegaard easily beat him.

For the Olympic time trial, it's mainly that it takes the doubts about Roglic' health and form away.

 

[Soranos]

Carapaz' prep was less than ideal but it was definitely more ideal than being flying from early August and trying to hold that to November. For Carapaz I think it's more telling that Vingegaard easily beat him.

For the Olympic time trial, it's mainly that it takes the doubts about Roglic' health and form away.

Sorry, but it does not work that way. Different year, different parcour, different circumstances. So a cross-reference to this year's Tour are to be treated as academic at best. Without in-depth analysis of power data etc. it is anybody's guess if a rider really managed to reach peak form.

We should stick to that Vuelta and what happened there. It is guesswork whether Roglic and/or Carapaz were at 80,90 or whatever percentage of their capacity. We don't know and never will. But what we do know, is that both felt good enough to enter as clear leaders of their team with the stated goal to win the GC and that is what they should ultimately be judged by. It was one of the most exciting GTs of the last few years and I don't understand this desire to further elevate this already great achievement by diminishing the performance of his closest competitors.

I assume that you would not be happy, if the public would dismiss a third Roglic triumph this year with the argument that he only did half a GT before while the other top riders already peaked for the Giro/Tour, suffered from Covid, etc.. Everybody who enters a GT with the ambition to win should live with the results. There is no shame in not winning every race you enter.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Carapaz also was a late addition to the vuelta after Ineos lost faith in Froome.

Once they put Carapaz in the Tour team, the plan was probably always to send him to La Vuelta so he could actually try GC as it wasn't realistic at the Tour. I'm pretty sure they announced his participation already during the Tour.

 

[southwards]

. But if they basically crack Rogl early and only need to defend it's gonna be boring as hell.

I found his defense last year against Carapaz's attacks quite entertaining.

 

[southwards]

I hope for Bernal that this is not the plan because Carapaz has serious voodoo when it comes to multi leader tactics

The undisputed master of sneaky attacks and undercover racing.

 

[Soranos]

Once they put Carapaz in the Tour team, the plan was probably always to send him to La Vuelta so he could actually try GC as it wasn't realistic at the Tour. I'm pretty sure they announced his participation already during the Tour.

I don't see how that changes anything. The back- up plan for Roglic surely also was in place. This isn't the Danish football team returning from their vacation destinies on short notice to compete in that miracle European Championship they won.

 

[southwards]

And don't forget that last year Roglic was severely let down by Jumbo in that raining stage (9? the one put in place of Tourmalet).

 

[Red Rick]

Sorry, but it does not work that way. Different year, different parcour, different circumstances. So a cross-reference to this year's Tour are to be treated as academic at best. Without in-depth analysis of power data etc. it is anybody's guess if a rider really managed to reach peak form.

We should stick to that Vuelta and what happened there. It is guesswork whether Roglic and/or Carapaz were at 80,90 or whatever percentage of their capacity. We don't know and never will. But what we do know, is that both felt good enough to enter as clear leaders of their team with the stated goal to win the GC and that is what they should ultimately be judged by. It was one of the most exciting GTs of the last few years and I don't understand this desire to further elevate this already great achievement by diminishing the performance of his closest competitors.

I assume that you would not be happy, if the public would dismiss a third Roglic triumph this year with the argument that he only did half a GT before while the other top riders already peaked for the Giro/Tour, suffered from Covid, etc.. Everybody who enters a GT with the ambition to win should live with the results. There is no shame in not winning every race you enter.

I don't dismiss results. I just contest the way they're interpreted by some. Also I can think it wasn't Roglic' strongest win while really enjoying it for what it was. COVID season made it extremely hard for riders to peak for the Vuelta in the first place.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yeah. Lets doubt Roglič once more. It's not like he is going for a hat-trick or that he beat all the mentioned cyclist in the last year or so.

I am not convinced.

 

[southwards]

What I do think is that people dismiss Carapaz far too much. Like he won a Giro, podiumed Tour, narrowly missed a Vuelta win, got an Olympic gold, and he's not someone seriously in contention for the Vuelta.

While I stillthink Roglic is the prime favorite, I also think Carapaz is his main riva. The great unkown for him is his form (he has been riding since the Tour de Suisse), where this time I think Roglic has now the clear upper hand.

 

[Red Rick]

Meanwhile I'm interested to see what Pidcock does. I'm not him to be a GC leader or something but I don't think we've seen any climbing at all from him this year?