R.0.t.O said:
Yes. Just because things didn't quite work out doesn't mean the tactic was wrong. QS got a strong man up the road, Leopard went awol (apart from Posthuma who went onto the grass instead), then Boonen called Cancellara's bluff. Quite a tidy strategy really, just that Boonen didn't really have it yesterday. If he stayed with Canc then he can justifiably sit on while they motor up to Chavanel and be the freshest in the finale. Of course he couldn't stay with him, but it still worked out ok and he was there in the finale when he couldn't go with him AGAIN. I would blame Tommeke's legs not the tactics.
There were a few points in the race where the time checks seemed to freeze. I started watching at 100km to go, and it was still 100km to go 5 minutes later with the same time gaps. Definitely Cancellara slowed down a bit: I think he was backing off in preparation to really hit Chavanel on the Muur and was caught out by the pace of Gilbert coming up from behind.
Hmm, I'm one who didn't like the move, and I stand by my position. In hindsight it doesn't look so bad because FC didn't have the legs to make it stick. I still say, with a man up the road, you make Cancellara chase first. I thought Quickstep did a great ride yesterday, don't get me wrong, but everyone who made it to that finale owes a HUGE debt of gratitude to BMC. In any event it was REALLY good to see Boonen active and I think it bodes well for him for Roubaix; he fights with everything he's got and did a better ride yesterday than I thought he would.
I don't think Cancellara was undone by hubris; this is the guy after all that rode Boonen straight off his wheel last year, tore up PR, and looked like Zeus himself a week ago. I still think he's got the FORM to make something like that stick; just today happened to be the day the captain was screaming down to the engine room "I said MORE STEAM dammit" and nothing happened.
2 biggest factors in the race were, Cancellara not having his E3 legs, and BMC being willing to lay it on the line. I am surely one who thought it was over when Canc took off, but did begin to think after awhile he was not looking like the same rider we saw last Saturday (and not just due to BMC chasing, btw. He just seemed less comfortable from the get go). If he gets to the top of the Muur still in the lead the whole dynamic of the finale would have changed for sure in my opinion. As it was, it was a great ride to come back from what would have mentally crushed many riders, and to have nearly pulled off the win. He and Chava share Ride of the Day honors.
The time checks also seemed really odd to me; at one point the gap was at around 47 seconds or so, then magically back to 1:01 seemingly in seconds, for a brief period seeming like the steam had gone out of the chase. Ultimately I have to agree with the folks who suggest the rapid decrease in gap approaching the Muur was due to the Canc not wanting his legs to be totally cooked just prior to being caught; only explanation.
In any event, the finale was some of the most exciting racing I've ever seen, and is why I love the one day classics. No one holding anything back; this one could have had 5 different winners. A great race and certainly the promise of Paris Roubaix looms even more exciting. Can't wait.