95th Ronde van Vlaanderen - April 3 2011

[Dekker_Tifosi]

3rd in KBK in 2008. 3rd in GW in 2009.

No super results, but he's been solid on the pave in the past.

GW is not really a cobble race in my book, 2x kemmelberg is not enough to justify it (rest is cobble less)
And KBK is just another group sprint you're referring too.
We've yet to see Goss do anything that would justify him being a threat or being able to follow multiple attacks by Boonen, Cancellara, or even Flecha, Pozzato, Gilbert, Ballan on cobbled hills.

I mean Steven de Jongh WON KBK and E3 Prijs. Was he ever a threat in RVV? No... exactly. Because he won those races in group sprints and would never follow attacks by Museeuw or Van Petegem etc...

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

It doesn't tend to rain on the day of the Ronde despite usually having bad weather in the days before. Hasn't done in quite a number of years now. We'll have a better idea later in the week.

And that's exactly what they predict this year

 

[Andy99]

5 (F I V E) Hours of coverage on Eurosport - we've never had it so good..

 

[rghysens]

It doesn't tend to rain on the day of the Ronde despite usually having bad weather in the days before. Hasn't done in quite a number of years now. We'll have a better idea later in the week.

In 2008 there was rain, melting snow and hail during the race. But, indeed, mostly the bad weather is for one of the days before the ronde.

 

[El Pistolero]

GW is not really a cobble race in my book, 2x kemmelberg is not enough to justify it (rest is cobble less)
And KBK is just another group sprint you're referring too.
We've yet to see Goss do anything that would justify him being a threat or being able to follow multiple attacks by Boonen, Cancellara, or even Flecha, Pozzato, Gilbert, Ballan on cobbled hills.

I mean Steven de Jongh WON KBK and E3 Prijs. Was he ever a threat in RVV? No... exactly. Because he won those races in group sprints and would never follow attacks by Museeuw or Van Petegem etc...

Last year, G-W was pretty decent.

 

[rghysens]

Last year, G-W was pretty decent.

Mainly due to bad weather and a longer distance...

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

In 2008 there was rain, melting snow and hail during the race. But, indeed, mostly the bad weather is for one of the days before the ronde.

It's P-R that needs to be rainy!

 

[Archibald]

It doesn't tend to rain on the day of the Ronde despite usually having bad weather in the days before. Hasn't done in quite a number of years now. We'll have a better idea later in the week.

saturday's forcast is showers in the afternoon and 21C!!

 

[LugHugger]

Meteo France, Nord-Pas de Calais

Sunday 3 April: Pluie min 9 degrees max 16 degrees

For Ronde sportivists, Saturday 2nd April: Soleil min 11 degrees max 24 degrees. Phew!!!!

 

[Chuffy]

Meteo France, Nord-Pas de Calais

Sunday 3 April: Pluie min 9 degrees max 16 degrees

For Ronde sportivists, Saturday 2nd April: Soleil min 11 degrees max 24 degrees. Phew!!!!

Joi! Je will packez le suncream.

 

[Carl0880]

I agree with the person that suggested a few pages back that to beat Cancellara will be to use a break with several non favorites in it from several teams. The break would have to consist of older riders who have had good Performances before (i.e. Guesdon, Hincapie, Hammonds, Klier), and Riders who have ridden well but mostly in service of their leaders (Chavanel, Van Summeren, Hayman). A group of riders that the favorite feel could be brought back, but someone whom their corresponding teams would feel good about if the break was able to succeed.

The obvious Choice be Cancellara, followed by Boonen. My Outsider pick I will go for will be Nuyens. He looks really good this year, and doesn't have the pressure since he has already won this spring and he is riding for a team that isn't expected to control the race.

 

[Winterfold]

It's only Tuesday and already the levels of Spartacus armchair fanboy manlove are at Tony Curtis proportions. Pass the sickbag.

Even Gilbert seems to have given up. Let's hope he can come up with a tactical scheme that would do Crassus proud.

A very strong breakaway (without Stuart O'Grady in it) is one option. A deal that brings Sky's and Garmin's rouleur firepower onto Canc might be another.

 

[L'arriviste]

Joi! Je will packez le suncream.

Let me correct that for you:

Geweldig! Ik pak de zonnebrand.

 

[Chuffy]

Let me correct that for you:

Geweldig! Ik pak de zonnebrand.

Ik pak? Wasn't he a Korean striker in the last World Cup?

@Winterfold - you're going to be several kilos lighter by Sunday I suspect. It'll have to be one hell of a breakaway to put enough time into Fabulous. All I can think of is that several teams are going to have to combine forces and send repeated breaks up the road on the assumption that he can't cover them all without knackering himself.

 

[Winterfold]

A megadeal Spring Classics carve-up between Garmin Sky and Omega should be able to do it. One Monument each - no wins for Def Leopard Shrek. That's the kind of preparation I could live with.

Seriously are we saying that Canc can outrun a four man pursuit made up of eg Thomas Stannard Hushovd Millar (if he were on form but there are others)?

No way! Get real people noone is that good.

I used to like Spartacus, but to me he has lost the sense of being prepared to lose in order to win. A win without the chance of losing is hollow. That may not be his fault...

Collaboration and deals among the other big favourites (twas ever thus) will make life much harder for him.

 

[Lanark]

A megadeal Spring Classics carve-up between Garmin Sky and Omega should be able to do it. One Monument each - no wins for Def Leopard Shrek. That's the kind of preparation I could live with.

Seriously are we saying that Canc can outrun a four man pursuit made up of eg Thomas Stannard Hushovd Millar (if he were on form but there are others)?

No way! Get real people noone is that good.

I used to like Spartacus, but to me he has lost the sense of being prepared to lose in order to win. A win without the chance of losing is hollow. That may not be his fault...

Collaboration and deals among the other big favourites (twas ever thus) will make life much harder for him.

Probably, numbers mean little in the final of a race like Vlaanderen. Stannard and Thomas will be completely useless in the last 30km of a race like this, Cancellara would only increase his gap if those guys are on the front. Hushovd has rarely been great in this race (he is much better in Roubaix), Millar hasn't shown any form. Maybe a group of guys like Boonen, Gilbert, Flecha and Haussler have a chance of getting him back, anything below that doesn't stand a chance.

 

[boomcie]

Probably, numbers mean little in the final of a race like Vlaanderen. Stannard and Thomas will be completely useless in the last 30km of a race like this, Cancellara would only increase his gap if those guys are on the front. Hushovd has rarely been great in this race (he is much better in Roubaix), Millar hasn't shown any form. Maybe a group of guys like Boonen, Gilbert, Flecha and Haussler have a chance of getting him back, anything below that doesn't stand a chance.

The problem with such a group would be that all of them would hold back a little to save energy, because they believe the other riders in the group do this too. Fabian would just go full throttle.

 

[lancaster]

if a 2009 World Champs scenario plays out, FC could end up losing. a smallish group of strong riders taking it in turns to attack, and all leaving it to Fab to chase.

he was the strongest rider that day, but hasn't got rainbows on his sleeves.

he's the strongest for RVV, but other strong riders will be thereabouts, and have a chance, even without making explicit deals. the default setting for everyone will be let Fab chase, and try to catch him napping (see boonen at roubaix 2010).

if he wins this, (and/or roubaix) he'll have to earn it, he won't get much help (from non leopards).

 

[Winterfold]

I agree if they have it in the back of their minds that they are racing each other then they will hold back a little and he will get enough gap to get away - which is why they should do a deal. It must not be in Haussler's mind that is he is racing eg Flecha in RVV and eg Flecha must be working for Hushovd in P-R.

There is nothing new in this scheming - it's the natural order of things

 

[boomcie]

if a 2009 World Champs scenario plays out, FC could end up losing. a smallish group of strong riders taking it in turns to attack, and all leaving it to Fab to chase.

he was the strongest rider that day, but hasn't got rainbows on his sleeves.

he's the strongest for RVV, but other strong riders will be thereabouts, and have a chance, even without making explicit deals. the default setting for everyone will be let Fab chase, and try to catch him napping (see boonen at roubaix 2010).

if he wins this, (and/or roubaix) he'll have to earn it, he won't get much help (from non leopards).

Yeah, that's true, but if the WC would have been held on the course of the RVV he would have probably had those sleeves... It's all pretty depressing to see the guy ride in top shape.

 

[auscyclefan94]

if a 2009 World Champs scenario plays out, FC could end up losing. a smallish group of strong riders taking it in turns to attack, and all leaving it to Fab to chase.

he was the strongest rider that day, but hasn't got rainbows on his sleeves.

he's the strongest for RVV, but other strong riders will be thereabouts, and have a chance, even without making explicit deals. the default setting for everyone will be let Fab chase, and try to catch him napping (see boonen at roubaix 2010).

if he wins this, (and/or roubaix) he'll have to earn it, he won't get much help (from non leopards).

I don't get how he was the strongest at Mendrisio. Anyway, he could be targeted out for his stregth. The other favourites will be less willing and more attentive when he makes his move. OR they should be.

 

[Echoes]

It's P-R that needs to be rainy!

Meh. Roubaix's route is selective enough in every kind of weather conditions whatsoever and doesn't need to be rainy for it. Of course, a rainy Roubaix is awesome but we don't need it. A sunny Roubaix also means a lot of dust. It rocks.

Flanders is not as selective in hot sunny days but sure is if it is rainy. It needs rain more (see 1969).

 

[roundabout]

I don't get how he was the strongest at Mendrisio. Anyway, he could be targeted out for his stregth. The other favourites will be less willing and more attentive when he makes his move. OR they should be.

Unless the others really wear Cancellara out or there's a dip in form he will win it Bartoli style.

 

[Lanark]

The problem with such a group would be that all of them would hold back a little to save energy, because they believe the other riders in the group do this too. Fabian would just go full throttle.

True, the same happened in Paris-Roubaix last year. Their best chance will be to push Cancellara in the defensive, and respond to every move he makes (if people are capable of that).

 

[boomcie]

True, the same happened in Paris-Roubaix last year. Their best chance will be to push Cancellara in the defensive, and respond to every move he makes (if people are capable of that).

Agreed. Also the idea of a strong break with the lieutenants in it sounds like a realistic plan.