AFL Thread

[FoxxyBrown1111]

What a disgrace WC displays... looks like a training match. So I switched the game after one Qtr (game is in the pocket since at least midway trou first Qtr )...
I love Freo winning, but not without resistance... The people paying entrance should get their money back. Seems WC isn´t even trying.

In the other games things don´t look good. The player down for Gee looks to have a serious spinal cord injury. The collision looked brutal, but I saw worse ones this short season already. Let´s hope he will be ok.

Edit: The fantastic 4th Qtr of the Gee game payed me back some of the lost time I wasted in the Freo game... Even though I hoped for Suns to prevail.

Btw, are the coaches of Gee & NM twins? The look like the same person.

 

[One Eyed Aussie]

Re:

Btw, are the coaches of Gee & NM twins? The look like the same person.

Yes, Brad and Chris Scott are twin brothers. They used to play for Brisbane.

 

[leftover pie]

Re: Re:

marcus bontempelli

the bont! love watching that guy play, hope he sticks around and enjoys some success at the bullies.

 

[blackcat]

yep, love the bulldogs to get success.

is cheering on the bulldogs for success and effecting said success the 9th Zeno's paradox?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So next week is my "Game of the Year" Freo vs Swans. The two teams I root for clash... Since I dont like ties (thanks god they are basically non existent in the AFL; truly got spoiled by soccers boring ties in my youth), I slightly root for the Swans since "Whiskey" is suspended for Freo... Hope I will wake up in time, because if I watch replay, I simply can´t resist to lurk for the outcome upfront.

 

[One Eyed Aussie]

Re:

yep, love the bulldogs to get success.

+ 1 million to this. I would love to see the bulldogs get a flag. They badly need it as one of the weaker Melbourne clubs. Luke Beveridge seems to be doing great so far in his first season as coach.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

is cheering on the bulldogs for success and effecting said success the 9th Zeno's paradox?

I'm not quite sure,... ..but come on universe. . they're due.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

is cheering on the bulldogs for success and effecting said success the 9th Zeno's paradox?

I'm not quite sure,... ..but come on universe. . they're due.

I had a good feeling about them until they got smashed by the Hawks. Hope they recover mentally and at least make the final 8. Then there is a circa 1.6 %* chance they make the GF.

* Assuming they are (on average) 1/4 underdogs in their three finals games before the GF.

 

[leftover pie]

Re: Re:

Then there is a circa 1.6 %* chance they make the GF.

* Assuming they are (on average) 1/4 underdogs in their three finals games before the GF.

1.6% - I like them odds, booking my flights now.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

is cheering on the bulldogs for success and effecting said success the 9th Zeno's paradox?

I'm not quite sure,... ..but come on universe. . they're due.

I had a good feeling about them until they got smashed by the Hawks. Hope they recover mentally and at least make the final 8. Then there is a circa 1.6 %* chance they make the GF.

* Assuming they are (on average) 1/4 underdogs in their three finals games before the GF.

bontempelli was out.

libba will be back next year. good things await in the next decade for the dogs. From 2017 you should be able to pencil them in for finals birth for the rest of the decade, all things being equal. ofcourse, random *** happens.

edit: berth with an e. no libba, dont you go start on the mdma again.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

Then there is a circa 1.6 %* chance they make the GF.

* Assuming they are (on average) 1/4 underdogs in their three finals games before the GF.

1.6% - I like them odds, booking my flights now.

I thought you are from Melbourne, and thus could ride with your bike to the stadium.
1.6% sounds low. But take the unlikely NFL-NYG championship (2007) run for example:
I converted the lines in their playoff games to a given winning pct as set by the bookies (who normally are awesome in setting "correct" lines, be it AFL, NFL, or whatever...)
Round 1: 39% given winning chance
Round 2: 23%
Round 3: 22%
Round 4 (Super Bowl): 12%
Thus: 0.39 x 0.23 x 0.22 x = 1.97% chance to reach the SB. So just a little more than the chance for the WB (if they make the final eight) to reach the GF.
0.39 x 0.23 x 0.22 x 0.12 = 0.24% chance to win that SB.
You see miracles happen. So if it´s time for the universe to give WB the title this year, it´s within reach.

 

[blackcat]

assuming independent variables.

dare say, the formula changes as each mark is ticked off, cos Bontempelli has won a brownlow and surpassed fyfe as the best player in the league in 5 months time.

*just a hypothetical.

 

[leftover pie]

Re: Re:

From 2017 you should be able to pencil them in for finals birth for the rest of the decade, all things being equal. ofcourse, random *** happens.

like a Darren jarman amazing last quarter. . .

or nick reiwoldt falling over..

 

[leftover pie]

Re: Re:

I thought you are from Melbourne, and thus could ride with your bike to the stadium.

no i'm from western Australia, long bike ride for me.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Two awesome comebacks that just fell short... Unfortunately!
And they happened almost simultaneously! How unlikely is that in our universe?
Hats up to both the Hawks & Swans. True champions, even in defeats. I don´t see any other teams coming back from 58 respectively 48 points at/near halftime.
I don´t know which comeback was more impressive.
1.) Hawks, I didn´t dare to watch the game when I see the score going like 88-37 inside the 3rd Qtr (only checking the scoreboard)... just lurked some time later... and had to double check my eyes! What? Hawks closed the gap to 8 and still 2 mins to play. So I switched to that game late (since I gave up Swans vs Freo anyways).
2.) 2 mins to Halftime I said goodbye to this game (Swans down by 40something). It´s over and out... and just checked (the scoreboard) how much deeper the Swans had fallen in the 3rd Qtr. after the Hawks game finished. Again I could not believe my eyes. The Swans got within reach by the end of 3rd. Now sticking to the game again. And the Swans closed the gap early in the 4th to just 3 points. Holy cow! The Swans now did it twice. Doing monstrous comebacks in less than two quarters of play (the other being the week 1 epic against Ess). Thus I rate the Swans comeback higher. My solely No 1 team from now. That game did it for me. Again: Awesome!

Had at least one of the two teams completed their comebacks for good, it would have gone into the history of the game as the greatest of all time I guess. Again: Unfortunately that both teams just missed.

... and we shall not forget: Both did it against high quality teams on the road. That makes it all even more impressive.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Questions to the experts:
How are Inside 50s scored? I searched the internet but couldn´t find a satisfying answer.
a.) Is a mark by the offensive team in the opponents 50 scored as both; a mark inside 50 and a normal inside 50?
b.) And if marks inside 50s are also scored as normal inside 50s; is a defensive mark (thus the offensive team is trying to get into the opponents 50, but failed to get possession of the ball since the opponent prevented it with its successful defensive mark) scored as a normal inside 50 for the intruding offensive team?
c.) Are inside 50s scored, even though the intruding team never gained full possession of the ball (for example like in situations where a kick got into the 50s area of the opponent, but neither team gained full possession of the ball, and then it went either out of bounds, or it is kicked out of it by the defensive team after a successful spoil)?

Thanks in advance.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

BTW, the best rule the AFL may ever implemented was the salary cap a la US leagues...
What happens without it, I just got reminded again by german news: Bayern Munich is about to win its 24th Bundesliga title (in just 52 years of play) . Oh watta bore soccer is compared to true football. In every phase (rules, business, action, athleticism, fan riots) and in every country its played (I guess the 0-0 league in Italy has its own Bayern Munich... maybe Juventus Torino)

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hey wats up guys? All dieded ( ) in the thrillers of a heart-attack?
@ leftover: This week its WB vs Swans............................................................................................. you vs me.

Cant praise Franklin enough. In both comebacks he did it all; playing midfield to assist on goals, doing tackles inside the own 50 playing defense, and ofc kicking his usual monster goals. From my little experience I have so far, he is the best, does it & give it all... Brownlow medals should not only go to midfielders, but also to outstanding forwards like him. Geez, this guy amazes me so much, I almost fall back into my youth fanboy days ... Long live and play Franklin.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

Questions to the experts:
How are Inside 50s scored? I searched the internet but couldn´t find a satisfying answer.
a.) Is a mark by the offensive team in the opponents 50 scored as both; a mark inside 50 and a normal inside 50?
b.) And if marks inside 50s are also scored as normal inside 50s; is a defensive mark (thus the offensive team is trying to get into the opponents 50, but failed to get possession of the ball since the opponent prevented it with its successful defensive mark) scored as a normal inside 50 for the intruding offensive team?
c.) Are inside 50s scored, even though the intruding team never gained full possession of the ball (for example like in situations where a kick got into the 50s area of the opponent, but neither team gained full possession of the ball, and then it went either out of bounds, or it is kicked out of it by the defensive team after a successful spoil)?

Thanks in advance.

hey foxxy,

sorry for the late response, with regards to inside 50s, "I don't really know" is my definitive answer.

for a) - i'm not sure, it would make sense to count it as a mark inside 50 AND an inside 50, they're 2 different things and they're only stats, so in the end it doesn't matter.

b) & c), not really sure.

Just like in the NFL, a team could have heaps of inside 50s (or 1st downs) and still find a way to lose.

The only stat that matters is the score.

And how about them Western Bulldogs! Had a great afternoon Sunday afternoon listening to them on the radio while doing a spot of gardening.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

@ leftover: This week its WB vs Swans............................................................................................. you vs me. .

Top of the table clash!!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Questions to the experts:
How are Inside 50s scored? I searched the internet but couldn´t find a satisfying answer.
a.) Is a mark by the offensive team in the opponents 50 scored as both; a mark inside 50 and a normal inside 50?
b.) And if marks inside 50s are also scored as normal inside 50s; is a defensive mark (thus the offensive team is trying to get into the opponents 50, but failed to get possession of the ball since the opponent prevented it with its successful defensive mark) scored as a normal inside 50 for the intruding offensive team?
c.) Are inside 50s scored, even though the intruding team never gained full possession of the ball (for example like in situations where a kick got into the 50s area of the opponent, but neither team gained full possession of the ball, and then it went either out of bounds, or it is kicked out of it by the defensive team after a successful spoil)?

Thanks in advance.

hey foxxy,

sorry for the late response, with regards to inside 50s, "I don't really know" is my definitive answer.

for a) - i'm not sure, it would make sense to count it as a mark inside 50 AND an inside 50, they're 2 different things and they're only stats, so in the end it doesn't matter.

b) & c), not really sure.

Just like in the NFL, a team could have heaps of inside 50s (or 1st downs) and still find a way to lose.

The only stat that matters is the score.

And how about them Western Bulldogs! Had a great afternoon Sunday afternoon listening to them on the radio while doing a spot of gardening.

Yes, yes... all agree... only stat that matters is the score. But...

as the NFL has a "killer stat" that really matters (Y/PP), the AFL seems to have one too. I have read that inside 50s correlate very well with winning and are a good use as a predictive stat. Thus I really wanna know about inside 50s. But if you don´t really know, who will? Some experts in you family? Anybody out there?

Yes WB... it´s time for them. Always think of you when hearing good news of them. You really deserve a championship after a felt 1000 years. But this week I am all in for the Swans ofc. No way I miss that game.

 

[leftover pie]

how about those bulldogs!

listened to a lot of the game on the radio, then watched the final quarter at the pub, great to see the bulldogs not just wither after sydney got in front.

i'm really liking their never-give-up-ness this year, stoked about the win.

also listened to a lot of the geelong & richmond game on the radio today, in lieu of watching on TV, there's really nothing better than listening to the footy on the radio (ABC), no ads, no sponsors, just footy. love it.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Amazing, isn´t it? The universe is ready for the Bulldogs... and I could not watch this thriller. Omg!

 

[leftover pie]

as they say, a week is a long time in football..

was all primed for a top of the table clash next week with freo, the bulldogs just deflated that balloon with an entitled effort today against a never say die saints. while going up by 10 goals is normally cause for celebration, why bother if you're just going to throw the game away (not to take anything away from the saints)

crushed

and how about those giants?

it's all upside down this year, loving it.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Too bad I was very busy with the GGTG. Now I missed the twice-in-a-century comeback... and who is on the wrong end of it? Ofc WB. I will definitely watch the full game in replay, imagining being leftover.
The GWS Giants with the upset of the year. I love that.
I just remember what Brad Scott said before the season: This will be the most compewtitive season in AFL history. I could not have chosen a better time to join than now. I am very pleased so far. Now at least watching the 2nd half of the Swans blowing away Melbourne.