AFL Thread

[One Eyed Aussie]

Re:

Great intense close game. Should go down the wire. Surprised the Cats go step with step with Port. Rooting for the underdogs (Geelong)...

Really enjoyable game with Geelong getting away late. Beating Port in Adelaide is definitely something to be proud of.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

How ´bout that? GC still in the game after three quarters, only down by 9. The upset of the year in the making for the 45.5 points-underdogs.

Edit: Almost. 22 seconds, unluckily the Suns didn´t win the last ball-up...

So my two chosen teams stay 1-Freo, 2-Swans in the ladder. But TBH, I rooted for the Suns to make the upset. Only root for the Swans to win every game. Even if a upset by lets say the Brisbane Lions would be in the making.

Now waiting for the Swans game against North.

Edit II:
After the usual slow start, Swans blow away NM in the 2nd Qtr... the last hurrah in the final minute of that term by North won´t change a thing: Swans to walk trou another win in the 2nd half. It´s good to root for a winning team.

Edit III:
So... it got close in the end. Too bad NM didn´t kick with accuracy (that is where it all comes down to).
Statistically NM was at the level of Swans...

Best start since 1996.

 

[darwin553]

Re:

Great intense close game. Should go down the wire. Surprised the Cats go step with step with Port. Rooting for the underdogs (Geelong)...

Go the mighty cats!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So some Geelong fans here... but how about Saints fans? Would someone out himself.
Wooden spoon or not... Some exciting games by them this year. You never know what you get. Either stopping scoring after 1 1/2 quarters, then getting blown away, or making historical comebacks, or having duells with opponents to not kick goals at all for almost a whole quarter, only to have both teams kick one in the waning seconds.
You gotta love them.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

I still think the Hawks will finish in the top 4

Hopefully not. They are the best team. Seems like they have one more guy on the field than their opponents. At times in the 1st Qtr it looked like they´d drop the Crows by 100 today.
No team seeded lower than fourth made the GF since the latest playoff system was invented in 2000. So that is my hope.

Edit: OK, the Crows fought themselves back into it (which is quiet an achievment after it looked like a blow-out to them midway trou the 1st & 2nd Qtrs), even led for a few minutes. But I fear the tank is emty now, as the Hawks go into the 4th with a 2 1/2 goal lead.
The good crowd (as usual in Adelaide) needs to go berserk now to influence the refs

 

[One Eyed Aussie]

Yes Foxxy you hate the Hawks I know .
Adelaide were lucky to be as close as they were at half time and in the third quarter as Hawthorn had dominated the game. Hawks were slightly lucky with some free kicks but far too good in the end.
I just hope Hawthorn never again play in that jumper which was an abomination. If you didn't know the players you would have no idea which team they were.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I wouldn´t say I hate them. Just dislike dominance, coz that is boring (ok, I accept it with the Swans, really felt in love with them ). But I have a heart for the underdogs. Actually I praised their (Hawks) courage as they almost erased a 50 point deficit earlier in the year...
Yes they dominated trou-out the game with some bumps in the road. The only way to beat them is having a better kicking accuracy. Even the Swans needed that in their game to prevail. So my hope is they (Hawks) "manage" to finish max 5th, coz no team ever (since the new playoff system got invented in 2000) made the GF from there (or lower).
Swans & Freo seems a lock for Top-4. WCE have a great chance too. My only concern is Collingwood will fade. So I strongly root for them from now too.

Btw, as I said before: Footy is awesome. Heavy metal meets fine skill. When I used to watch soccer matches in my youth, I could risk to take my eyes off TV. Not possible in AFL football, every second game deciding things happen, or at least poetry in motion with stunning marks and unbelievable goals... until a blow-outs (which happen a lot when weak teams play stronger ones) is secured... Then I can turn my eyes away.

If AFL fotball wasn´t existing, someone should invent it. The rest of the world miss some real special athletic & fine motor skill displays...

 

[One Eyed Aussie]

Re:

I wouldn´t say I hate them. Just dislike dominance, coz that is boring (ok, I accept it with the Swans, really felt in love with them ). But I have a heart for the underdogs.

Yeah look I don't like dominance either, even if it is my team. I remember when Hawthorn made every grand final from 1983-1989 (and then again in 1991 after missing out in 1990) that I didn't care if they won or lost the grand final because they had already achieved something great just by getting there.

Hawthorn have certainly had more than their fair share of success lately as well so I have no problem with other teams fighting out the finals. I would like to see one of Fremantle/Bulldogs/Saints win this year, Fremantle most of all.

I'm not particularly interested in the "plastic" franchises of GWS or Gold Coast doing well. They need to spend a long time earning their place in the league (and building up a fan base) in the first place.

If AFL fotball wasn´t existing, someone should invent it. The rest of the world miss some real special athletic & fine motor skill displays...

That's a good characterisation. Luckily someone did (invent it) - to keep cricketers fit during the off season .

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

I wouldn´t say I hate them. Just dislike dominance, coz that is boring (ok, I accept it with the Swans, really felt in love with them). But I have a heart for the underdogs.

Yeah look I don't like dominance either, even if it is my team. I remember when Hawthorn made every grand final from 1983-1989 (and then again in 1991 after missing out in 1990) that I didn't care if they won or lost the grand final because they had already achieved something great just by getting there.

Hawthorn have certainly had more than their fair share of success lately as well so I have no problem with other teams fighting out the finals. I would like to see one of Fremantle/Bulldogs/Saints win this year, Fremantle most of all.

I'm not particularly interested in the "plastic" franchises of GWS or Gold Coast doing well. They need to spend a long time earning their place in the league (and building up a fan base) in the first place.

If AFL fotball wasn´t existing, someone should invent it. The rest of the world miss some real special athletic & fine motor skill displays...

That's a good characterisation. Luckily someone did (invent it) - to keep cricketers fit during the off season .

Saints, yeah, would be cool. But not going to happen. But they are fun to watch, no doubt. You never know if getting another blow-out or engaging in a last minute thriller.

Since I am not long into it (thus don´t know about the traditions, etc), I actually wish them "plastic" franchises all the best. GWS Giants I especially like, since they were the punching ball just yesteryears and now even beat the world champs. Talk about a turnaround.

I would like to see the Swans going against the 5th (or lower seeded) team in the GF (other than Hawks ofc). Just because it never happened with the latest finals format, and not b/c I wish them Swans easy opposition in the final.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

"The AFL has been high on the list of the best attended domestic professional sports leagues in the world for several years, bettered only by the NFL in America, the Bundesliga in Germany and the Premier League in England in terms of average gate per match. One of the AFL’s core principles, reiterated
in the sport’s annual report for 2014 Click here to view is that competitive balance (CB) lies at the heart of the attraction. A revised CB policy, approved in 2014, was designed ‘to give each club a chance to compete strongly on-field regardless of its financial strength’. The policy is ‘based on the philosophy that every supporter and member of our 18 clubs should believe their club has a genuine chance of winning in each week of the season.’"

The intensions are good, just this year it won´t work for Carlton, Brisbane and GC (to be at least half competitive)

Salaries per team/player: (2014/USD)
1 Sydney Swans 270,681 (Guess Franklin has a lot to do with it)
2 Geelong 255,697
3 Greater Western Sydney 249,050
4 Fremantle 246,563
5 Hawthorn 241,306
6 North Melbourne 240,947
7 West Coast Eagles 238,938
8 Essendon 237,292
9 Carlton 235,921
10 Richmond 235,331
11 Melbourne 232,524
12 Collingwood 232,234
13 Adelaide Crows 231,302
14 Port Adelaide 229,716
15 Gold Coast 228,414
16 Brisbane Lions 227,793
17 Western Bulldogs 226,908
18 St Kilda 214,965 (wooden spooner here too)

Opinions?

Link: http://www.globalsportssalaries.com/

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Exactly what the Bulldogs needed: A "buildup-opponent". Back in T-8 contention... And next week the re-match against the Saints. Now WB could go 2 in a row. The Q will be: Can they hold as big a lead as today against them too? Or will they give away another monstrous comeback?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I was wondering why AFL players are paid relatively low compared to other leagues that "rule" a country (like NFL in the USA).
Is it because the market is too small ("only" 24 millions live in Australia)?
Is it because the talent pool is smaller (240.000 kids playing footy at age 5-14 to become one of the aprox. 700 native AFL players in the future) than let´s say soccer (500.000 in Germany, aged 15-18, trying to become one of the aprox 300 natives in the top league)?
Is it because the skill set needed is too easy (like some soccer guys say)?*

No, it´s none of the above. Actually your players are robbed:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/nick-riewoldt-keen-for-players-to-get-fair-share-of-afl-earnings-20140305-347qb.html

They get only 25% of the revenue. In the NFL it´s about 50%. The crazy european soccer leagues pay up to 80% of their revenues to players, thus needing help from all kinds of shady oligarchs & middle east oil sheiks to finance their greed (clubs not following this path have deep deep debts) > for further info, check my latest link.
So AFL players could easily double their income (aprox 500.000 instead of 250.000 on yearly average) if having a strong union fighting for their 50%. My opinion: They shall go on strike in 2016, when the current CBA (don´t know the name Australia uses, may Leftover can help out here) runs out.
I say something I never would in the NFL thread: I fully side with the players. Of what I saw so far is, they have to endure major stress to their bodies, and certainly will suffer like NFL players once the playing days are over. And they display athletisism in a violent environment, combined with speed, endurance, and fine motor skill (like kicking with amazing accuracy "bananas" from unreal angles and/or for distance, jumping on each others backs and still come up with the ball, run full gas while tipping a un-round, thus uncontrolable, ball on the ground several times) like I saw in no other team sport. All-at-once.That required skill-sets shall be paid fairly.

Coming up: 2nd Half predictions based solely on Inside50s-Stats. I just wanna see if that "killer-stat" is just descriptive for success (circa 70 % of games are won by teams that had more Inside50s**), or if it´s a predictive (for future success) stat like Y/PP in the NFL. (Hint @ Leftover: Better hope Inside50s have "future value", then you´ll be positively surprised)

Btw, my pre-season rookie-picks (based almost completely on regression) do pretty well against the insider bookie lines.

(* Ofc not, as you just saw in my post)

(** My rookie guess is: Great Ruckmen winning hit-outs > lead to more clearences > lead to fast-transition towards the opposing 50. Is that simple description correct (I know there is more to it, like having good mid-fielders disposing balls with great accuracy; but I mean in most basic terms)? And thus shall Ruckmen be paid among the best? Still learning...)

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

Exactly what the Bulldogs needed: A "buildup-opponent". Back in T-8 contention... And next week the re-match against the Saints. Now WB could go 2 in a row. The Q will be: Can they hold as big a lead as today against them too? Or will they give away another monstrous comeback?

look out here we come! building our way to a finals appearance.

Looked great on Saturday night, hoping they put in another good effort against the saints, I lost a coffee & a muffin in a bet last game with a saints supporting riding buddy in the last game, can't afford to be doing that again.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

WB has a rather "soft" schedule left... Add in that if Ins50s are any indication, WB finishes 5th, at least 6th (given luck and bad luck evens out until the end of the season; but you never know how a un-round ball will bounce in any given game, as we just saw with the Melbourne upset vs Geelong). The rest tomorrow... What about my other posts (see also previous page)? Should players earn more, are Ruckmen as important as I think from my half season observations? I still like to learn more... Others are welcome too with their insights.

 

[leftover pie]

Foxxxy, I don't think the players would ever go on strike, it would never happen in Aus, there would be riots in the streets.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Too bad. They need a strong union leader. Most of times things are hyped up to be worse than they would actually be. Really let them strike. Or at least they should threat one. Sometimes that works wonders alone. Once the players get 40-50%, AFL also gets the best athlets from Rugby (if they can kick, of which I doubt. But at least you wouldn´t lose any players trying their luck as NFL punters)

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Final Standings projections based on Ins50-Stats (and remaining Schedule/Fixtures):
1-Freo 18-4
2-WCE 17-5
3-Haw 17-5
4-Syd 16-6
5-Coll 14-8
6-WB 13-9
7-GWS 12-10
8-Ade 11-11
---------------------
9-Rich 11-11
10-NM 10-12
11-Gee 10-12
12-Ess 10-12
13-PA 9-13
14-SK 8-14
15-Car 6-16
16-Melb 6-16
17-Bri 6-16
18-GC 4-18

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

WB has a rather "soft" schedule left... Add in that if Ins50s are any indication, WB finishes 5th, at least 6th

a good position to cause a ruckus in the finals! I like it foxxxy, I like it.

but you never know how a un-round ball will bounce in any given game

so true, the recent drawn grand final is a perfect example, only seconds to go, steven milne, 15m out from goal, the ball bounces away from him and through for a point, how different things would be if the ball had spun a little further around and it had bounced towards him, it's truly one of the greatest things about the game, learning to read the bounce is an underrated skill that people don't even talk about, it's just taken as a given.

What about my other posts (see also previous page)? Should players earn more, are Ruckmen as important as I think from my half season observations?

I believe a good ruckman is very important, they are the first-point-of contact for a team and really are leaders, whether they're captain or not. Every time there is a ball up or a throw in it's a 50/50, and if you have a dominant ruckman then it's 70/30, add in accuracy to that and it really swings things in your teams favour. Their physicality also sets the tone for the team to follow too, so even if they don't win the tap, a ruckman that doesn't let the opposing ruckman get a decisive tap and then fiercely tackles the opposing player who ends up with the ball is also valuable.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

"truly one of the greatest things about the game, learning to read the bounce is an underrated skill that people don't even talk about, it's just taken as a given"

I didn´t even realized it´s a skill. But now that you say it. Yes it is. Just reminds me now of how unbelievable that goal by Franklin was when he kicked a "banana" on the ground. Or how funny it looks when OL and DL men struggle over a fumbled NFL football. The picking up of AFL footballs from the ground look more controlled for that matter.

And now the "easy" part of the schedule/fixtures start for WB: (if Ins50s indeed have "future value", things look very good. So far WB have 52% of Ins50s, the opponents of them had thus 48% so far)
StK-(47% of Ins50s in their games) = WB-Win
Car-(46%) = Win
GC-(43%) = Win
Gee-(48%) = Win
Col-(54%) = Loss
Ess-(48%) = Win
PA-(48%) = Win
Mel-(43%) = Win
WCE-(57%) = Loss
NM-(48%) = Win
Bri-(44%) = Win
= 9-2 for the 2nd half. Put in a little regression, so I came up with a 7-4 record for the 2nd half, given upsets and being upset even out = 13-9 final record.
Ofc only if they could resist to give away 50-point leads and/or going into the final Qtr with a circa 20-point lead, and not holding onto it. I further assume injuries will even out overall to all teams... Very likely.

So a bright future ahead.

Edit:
First real test for my Ins50s work I have done this week... As you know from the NFL thread I seldom bet. Mostly only playoffs when I see inconsistencies in the market due wrong assumptions by the bettors as a whole (Sharks, who seldom fail & "Public bettors").
Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.

I'm off to the game tonight foxxxy, keep an eye out for me, i'll be the one yelling at the umpire.

I'm pretty excited, I haven't been for ages and I think it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, I would put my pennies on freo though, even at 1.25

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

And now the "easy" part of the schedule/fixtures start for WB: (if Ins50s indeed have "future value", things look very good. So far WB have 52% of Ins50s, the opponents of them had thus 48% so far)
StK-(47% of Ins50s in their games) = WB-Win
Car-(46%) = Win
GC-(43%) = Win
Gee-(48%) = Win
Col-(54%) = Loss
Ess-(48%) = Win
PA-(48%) = Win
Mel-(43%) = Win
WCE-(57%) = Loss
NM-(48%) = Win
Bri-(44%) = Win
= 9-2 for the 2nd half. Put in a little regression, so I came up with a 7-4 record for the 2nd half, given upsets and being upset even out = 13-9 final record.
Ofc only if they could resist to give away 50-point leads and/or going into the final Qtr with a circa 20-point lead, and not holding onto it. I further assume injuries will even out overall to all teams... Very likely.

So a bright future ahead.

lookin good for the doggies, excited about their chances, as a true doggies supporter I always live in hope.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.

I'm off to the game tonight foxxxy, keep an eye out for me, i'll be the one yelling at the umpire.

I'm pretty excited, I haven't been for ages and I think it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, I would put my pennies on freo though, even at 1.25

Sure Freo is the favo here, but the underdog odds were just too good...
I will look out for you in the stands. Wish I could be to a game in the stadium too, even if that would be GC vs Bri.

"lookin good for the doggies, excited about their chances, as a true doggies supporter I always live in hope"

This year your hope has a good foundation (and all that when the pre-season line was set at only 5 1/2 wins for them)... WB is truly competitive. And in the finals... well, you saw it with the 2007-NYG season, miracles (luck streaks ) happen. If the universe is ready, then WB could be the first team (with the latest finals format) to make the GF from a spot lower than 4th on the ladder.

Edit: Even in Australia the odds for Coll sunk from the 4.25 I mentioned down to 3.50 just before game time... So the line was "wrong". The Sharks are in, and the public bettors read my post and invested in a upset.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

OK, End-1st Qtr Coll by 2 ... my underdog bet is well alive & kicking...

Edit: Oh my, I shall not bet, not even the less I do. My heart is pumping as if riding up-hill. My nails are bitten down already ... and we are just at HT. Coll still by 2... Fingers crossed. The upset is in the air.

Edit II: Omg... I think I´ve to switch off. Don´t wanna get a heart attack. We are tied at 60 / 8.6 apiece. A true 50/50 game in purest form. Come on Magpies finish the upset off. Go, go, go... Gimme that game.

Edit III: That is bitter. Me rookie to the game, spotted the right one with highly favourable odds, it got down the wire, and then No 9 missed the goal. That was the nail in the coffin.
What makes it more bitter: If it was a blow-out, ok, I was wrong, those Ins50s-stats mean nothing... But no it was close as expected by me. Add in last second goals by Freo each just before HT, and before 3rd Otr time... Reduce juuust 1 minute of the game and Collingwood wins by a goal, and even the miss by No 9 wouldn´t change that... I need to cool down now. That takes a while to absorb.

Great game you choose to attend leftover. You made the right choice at the right time. Btw, couldn´t spot you in the stands. The house was full packed. So next time please carry a signpost "To Foxxy Germany" or something like that.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

Great game you choose to attend leftover. You made the right choice at the right time. Btw, couldn´t spot you in the stands. The house was full packed. So next time please carry a signpost "To Foxxy Germany" or something like that.

Having not been to a game for quite a while I had forgotten just how fast it is, you don't really get an appreciation for that watching on TV.

Was a tough game, a bit scrappy, but that was bought on by pressure I think, I now remember why I don't like going to freo games, they always make you sweat on it, it's never an easy win.

A behind the scenes look for you foxxxy, this is what happens to the banner after they run through it:

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Thanks for sharing your inside views. I am jeaulos of you having the possibility to be right in there. The game looks fast, highly skilled even on TV to me. I wonder how it would be in the stadium.
I hope one day I can have the same experience (by visiting Australia). I only can imagine how I would have felt today: Either getting a heart attack, or getting lights out drunk after the game to absorb my loss. I was sooo close.

A shame with the banner waste...

Next up: Swans vs Rich... My No 1 team playing. Excited already.