After 1 week, Who will win the giro 2013?

[maxmartin]

Gesink and Evans both didn't do any recon of giro stages
(well apart from the ITT in the morning ofcourse) in contract to Wiggins/Nibali and maybe others. Wonder if that will play a role

maybe some seconds, can't be more than that

 

[karlboss]

I think by the final 2 stages we'll see Wiggins is stronger and he will definitely take the MTT. However if there is more rain this could be derailed as Wiggins finds himself stressed and tired after chasing back after every decent.
I'm hoping Wiggins proves the stronger but Nibali can win by attacking some of the decents. I wishing for Sanchez to win, because I like him and that will take something really spectacular.
Push comes to shove who do I think...Wiggins. Nibali looks too much like Cadel 2010 for me, and will burn out. (yes I know virus blah blah blah)

 

[theyoungest]

Erm...so Nibs totally destroys Wiggins in the section (the hard section) of the TT that suits him and then you state Wiggins absolutely killed him in the section that suited Wiggins. So that makes it skewed Jeez.

Nibali gained time on technique. Wiggo gained time on power. Who will you bet on, going forward?

 

[Pippo_San]

Nibali gained time on technique. Wiggo gained time on power. Who will you bet on, going forward?

Alas, the equation isn't an easy one to make. I'm sure in Tirreno-Adriatico 2013 Froome was probably the strongest overall, especially on raw power alone, and yet we all know how it ended.

Now everyone in the peloton knows that Wiggins + wet roads + descent equates disaster.
So now our Knight really has to cross his fingers that the weather will stay good in the next couple of weeks, else he'll be attacked like no one else even on simple hills.

Strategically, Astana and the others have the upper hand on Sky.

 

[slim charles]

Nibali gained time on technique. Wiggo gained time on power. Who will you bet on, going forward?

But Wiggo was, according to most, going to get around 3 minutes on Nibali on TT. That would suggest that Nibali actually did much better than expected compared to Wiggins and I don't see how the fact that Wiggo gained few seconds [instead of expected minutes] on power makes him a safer bet?

Nibali is in better position than most of us thought he would be after TT. Just the fact that he has a lead makes him the favorite, but he also has a mental advantage, at least compared to Wiggins. Still doesn't mean he will win it, of course.
Some thought Hesjedal was at least as good as Nibali 2 days ago, now he's more or less out of the race for Maglia Rosa. Same could happen to anyone, including Nibali.
In any case, I think we will have a great 2 weeks.

 

[cineteq]

Nibali gained time on technique. Wiggo gained time on power. Who will you bet on, going forward?

Would you bet on on someone who was getting dropped on today's stage?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Nibbles I think, but not confident.

I don't see Evans beating nibbles over the next two weeks though.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Nibali is definitely in the box seat, his to lose, Evans is looking in really good form though, and could pull the win off.

Wiggo is in a fight for just a podium spot now.

 

[Afrank]

Since the first poll asking who would win the Giro, I've answered Nibali. And with one week down, I'm more sure than ever of a Nibali victory. The Nibali I've seen in the first week is determined, confident, and most importantly strong. This is his year to finally bring home the Maglia Rosa.

 

[Afrank]

Before Evans won the Tour, isn't people always saying oh he would have a bad day in the mountain?

Before JR really challenged the Giro, isn't people here always saying oh he would have a bad day in the mountain?

My thoughts exactly, The Nibali of this year is one of the strongest we've seen IMO. He'll dominate in the mountains.

 

[Kender]

Nibali is still the favorate but i picked Cadel.
Astana look vulnerable and will struggle to control the race.
the Giro is always much more diffucult to control than the tour, and there are still many riders in contention if they can break Astana, so they will be trying.

Cadel has raced with awareness. He's not expended unnecessary energy and has looked better at the end of the stages.

I'm wondering sometimes if Wigo is losing time on purpose so he can give up and concentrate on the tour where he really wants to race. The giro is not the place the sky train can just metronome the peloton into submission for the win. it's just too difficult when there are so many classics style profiles to deal with

 

[Samson777]

If he hadnt lost that 1 minute which was essentially a total fluke, id say Scarponi.

With the minute lost however i think Nibali is very slight favourite over Evans, then Wiggins, Scarponi and Gesink but essentially, anyone can win.

22% - Nibali
20% - Evans
18%-Wiggins
16% Scarponi
14% Gesink
8 % Hejsedal
2% -someone else.

I voted Vino. But I also have some faith in Scarponi , that Time trial was quite amazing. It makes me believe that he is very well prepared for this Giro.

 

[Escarabajo]

zoncolan and gavia stages
working for Basso

Vuelta 2010:
Andorra and cotobello stages
a little weak but not a bad day, you can't win every MTF

Giro 2011:
Val di fassa and finestre stages
Yes, this indeed is a bad day for him

tour de france 2012: peyragurdes stageknee injury

How was that a bad day??

 

[maxmartin]

How was that a bad day??

1 Mikel Nieve (Euskaltel Euskadi) 7:27:14
2 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua&Sapone) + 1:41
3 Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank) + 1:50
4 Michele Scarponi (Lampre) + 1:57
5 John Gadret (AG2R) + 2:28
6 José Rujano (Androni) + 2:35
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) + 3:34

In terms of result, he lost more than 1 min to MS. Before that stage he was second place in GC, after the stage he was third. As we all know AC was disqualified later, so basically Nibali lost the Giro crown in that stage.
BTW, I don't think the bold part is a bad day.

 

[greenedge]

I will go for Evans, then Nibali and Scarponi on the podium.
Evans/Nibali
Nibali/Evans
Scarponi/Wiggins/Gesink

 

[mewmewmew13]

Voted with my heart for Nibs..he looks perfectly on form and mentally too...
but never can tell what might happen with Cadel..he's super tough..tenacious and smart and looking great.

Just don't want to see one of them fail because of disaster...

 

[delbified]

I voted Vino. But I also have some faith in Scarponi , that Time trial was quite amazing. It makes me believe that he is very well prepared for this Giro.

scarponi is definitely a threat. when have we seen him time trial like that previously? that was not normal.

 

[Mr. McQ]

Ok the first week is done. Who will win this?

SBW will take this race

 

[virandociclista]

I will put my money on evans. He is in perfect position and forms looks good. Wiggins will smoke this guys on the climbs, by the way. But there is the downhill.. So.. He will not got anywhere!

 

[Archibald]

after several days of rain and cold, I reckon it's still wide open.
You can't tell me that there won't be a few 'colds' caught after such conditions. He who stays healthiest will win, and that could be anyone. (Evans always seems to get sick at some point though)
Off days will be there for all as well, so whoever limits their losses the best on those days. (i'm aware of the 'bleeding obvious'ness of that statement too... but it's true). Several will struggle while some will be utter pants on tuesday - not many seem to go great guns after a rest day.

MTT will be the decider, and I'm not game to predict a winner til then

would be great to see Evans take it as I think his palmares should have more than just 1 GT win on it. Nibali will still win the Giro in years to come.

 

[contessador]

Staying with my favorite shark until the end...

but tempted by Cadel's performances.

Very happily entertained by the weather, the stages, the roads, the competition,and the drama

 

[ElChingon]

Well I just hope Wiggins will at least put in an effort to gain more time and at least get close, if only to make it more exciting for us. I don't want it to be just Nibali vs Evans, the more the merrier it will be (in contention).

 

[SafeBet]

scarponi is definitely a threat. when have we seen him time trial like that previously? that was not normal.

In most Giro ITTs in recent years:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17397
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20330

Check the gaps between him and Nibali.

 

[maxmartin]

In most Giro ITTs in recent years:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17397
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20330

Check the gaps between him and Nibali.

Wow can't believe in 2010 Nibali was TTing better than Wiggins, what a magical transformation for Wiggins in the past two years.

 

[Ferminal]

It had a 5km descent...