After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[auscyclefan94]

After the likely disaster of todays stage for the main favs, who will now win the giro?

 

[ludwig]

Wow can't remember a more exciting Giro than this. I wish I could watch every stage live instead of these live reports. But the reports have their own charms

This looks like Arroyo's big chance at glory. He could be the race favorite following this stage.

But didn't Porte climb better on the Terminillo?

But too many climbs to count the main guys out yet.

 

[the vagabond]

Which is more outrageous, Astana's failure to control the race or Sean Kelly's announcing?

 

[BroDeal]

Arroyo should have seven to eight minutes over the likes of Vino and Evans. He will have to crack to lose that much time.

 

[L'arriviste]

I hope someone will YouTube all the moves for this evening. This is one stage for which I would really like more than a three minute summary!

 

[ludwig]

Arroyo should have seven to eight minutes over the likes of Vino and Evans. He will have to crack to lose that much time.

7-8 mins isn't a whole lot given the stages ahead. Arroyo lost some time on the Terminillo.

Good opportunity for Sastre if Arroyo can't hang on.

Will be interesting to see if Porte can survive a mountain finish in pink.

Also Agnoli, Kiserlovski, and Tondo are in the mix.

 

[Jamsque]

It could be absolutely bloody anyone. Porte could be a revelation and climb like a champion, or he could collapse and lose half an hour on the Zoncolan. In fact any of the guys who leap-frogged Vino today could hang on to win it, right down to Sastre and Wiggins, although they both need to gain big time on guys like Porte and Tondo. It could even fall back to Evans, but he will need to be crazy aggressive in the mountains to make back all this time.

 

[Rockets160]

After the likely disaster of todays stage for the main favs, who will now win the giro?

Are you kidding me? The real question should be who should get fired for letting a 56 rider group get away? As for me, I'll still pull for Cadel, but with only 4 helpers for him still racing, its doesnt seem very likely. Looking at the way the final week is, I think that Efimkin, Tondo, and Gerdeman have the best chances. Not sure how well they TT, but they all can climb. Tondo the best among them. 2 TT's left...one climb TT and the last day. Its going to be a real fun last week....

 

[theyoungest]

I'm not that impressed by Porte, tbh. Don't think he'll be able to defend his lead. As it is now, Tondo is the main favourite, I think. But then again, we'll probably see some more insanity. The already hard mountain stages are going to be made extremely hard.

 

[hfer07]

Are you kidding me? The real question should be who should get fired for letting a 56 rider group get away?

+10000
I'm still trying to comprehend how on earth that ever happened...

 

[wattage]

Sastre will put the hammer down in the final week..

 

[the vagabond]

+10000
I'm still trying to comprehend how on earth that ever happened...

Many to call out but Astana has to take the main blame. The Giro is going to be very ****ed at their failure to keep things under control, and they are going to cement their reputation as a bunch of bike riders rather than a real team.

 

[Jan the Man]

If Sastre has recovered then Stages 15 and 19 could be brutal for those non pure climbers.

Stage 15 after 12 days on the bounce and with three climbs before Zoncolan is gonna cause utter carnage.

Of those in the breakaway I see only Arroyo and Sastre with a genuine shot. Though you never know- you're always liable to get a surprise. Maybe one of the two Liquigas young guns can hang with the big boys on the hills, you never know.

 

[BroDeal]

Many to call out but Astana has to take the main blame. The Giro is going to be very ****ed at their failure to keep things under control, and they are going to cement their reputation as a bunch of bike riders rather than a real team.

Leaky Gas had the firepower to close it down, especially if they would have called back their men int he break. They played chicken hoping that Astana and BMC would die doing the chasing.

 

[theyoungest]

If Sastre has recovered then Stages 15 and 19 could be brutal for those non pure climbers.

Stage 15 after 12 days on the bounce and with three climbs before Zoncolan is gonna cause utter carnage.

Of those in the breakaway I see only Arroyo and Sastre with a genuine shot. Though you never know- you're always liable to get a surprise. Maybe one of the two Liquigas young guns can hang with the big boys on the hills, you never know.

Sastre is not the one who has to take the initiative. He just has to stick like glue to Evans, Basso, and Vino. I wonder where they'll be able to drop him (if he has some of his form back, that is).

 

[Cobblestones]

My feeling is Sastre is slowly finding his racing form. He was terrible in the first week, but he might be hard to beat in the third week. Vino has already peaked. Likely he's only going backwards from now on. Evans has spent too much energy so far. I can't see him recover easily from today. Leakygas is a bit of a mystery. Right now I'd give Sastre the best chance.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

Leaky Gas had the firepower to close it down, especially if they would have called back their men int he break. They played chicken hoping that Astana and BMC would die doing the chasing.

Which they did. But that wasn't nearly enough to at least minimise the gap.

BMC and Astana both lost two domestiques today. Two guys from Astana were out after a huge chasing work, don't know what happened to BMC's ones.
________
N02 VAPORIZER

 

[Moondance]

Tondo, IMO

 

[BroDeal]

Which they did. But that wasn't nearly enough to at least minimise the gap.

They did not start chasing until it was way too late. When the large group started to form they should have reacted.

 

[Lanark]

Of all the guys up front, Tondo was the best on the Terminillo. But then again, he doesn't have any experience in a three week race.

Arroyo has a nice bonus. But can he handle the pressure?

Sastre is easily the most experienced rider, but hasn't shown top shape so far. He was the best of the GC contenders today though. I would probably bet on him right now.

 

[theyoungest]

Tondo, IMO

Let's hope so. I like this rider. Tondo and Sastre are a potentially formidable duo in the following week.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Gerdemann will win it.


/runs away

 

[ttrider]

Looking at it now it is very hard to tell really,
Porte is in his first grand tour and is still young so the final week will surely be to much
Arroyo well he appears to be on good form and i highly doubt he would usually lose over 7 and a half minutes or so but.....
Sastre should ride into form and we all know the last week is perfect for him so in theory he is now in the driving seat from now on in, when he turns on the style on a mountain the two above will surely be shown to not be in the same league, he did gain 2 seconds on arroyo today wich is admittedly tiny but he still dropped Arroyo and Wiggins
Between Arroyo and Sastre i think i cant tell and it really depends on how arroyo deals with the pressure of probably being in pink after Zoncolan
With that in mind Tondo is about 2 behind Arroyo i would say he is in the form of his life and so we will have to see but he is unproven in the 3rd week of a gt
Its a really tough call for Cervelo probably will try and play both cards
Wiggins will never gain time on Sastre on a final week parcours like that and so i believe he will simply slip, 20% just isnt wiggins at all
Vino Evans et al really hard to know but i cant see any of these taking the 10 or so out of Arroyo or 3 out of Sastre
The race is probably going to become incredibly hard now with stages like Monte Grappa featuring many attacks, possibly early attacks as well, i think Sastre can just go with these if his form has recovered, Tondo at the moment certainly can but people like Arroyo and Porte must not get carried away they must be prepared to not exceed their limits and simply control their losses

For me, its to hard to call but i think its between Arroyo, Tondo and Sastre

 

[BroDeal]

I hope Evans throws all caution to the wind and rides to make the race hard in the mountains. No one has yet been tested in the mountains. A lot will crack.

 

[Ferminal]

I said Arroyo earlier, but think it will be the other way around.

1. Tondo
2. Arroyo
3. Evans
4. Basso
5. Vino

If Sastre still goes for the win he should finish 2nd or 3rd but Cervelo's top choice is Tondo, I'd hate to see him working for Sastre.