Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[SergeDeM]

Re: Re:

Contador may have won his last GT unless he can do something special in next year's Tour which is his last according to him. Quintana will only be better next year and I can't see Froome doing the Giro. It will probably be the same four going head to head next year. No more talk of the double thankfully. Contador has looked fatigued throughout and none of his attacks have been effective. Everyone was counting on Froome having a tough time in the first half of the race but it seems that will be where he actually won the race unless Quintana can pull a rabbit out of a hat on the Alpe and Froome is knocked from his bike by an Anti Sky Droid, foaming at the mouth with a beer in his hand. Probably wearing an Astana shirt !

What is the basis for thinking he's won his last GT? That last GT win was only a couple of months ago. We could equally have thought he'd won his last GT after the 2011 and 2013 tours but of course that was not the case. His performance in a race where he's clearly tired and/or struggling for form is not really a good indicator of his true ability. I think if he targets the tour he can get back to 2014 form and give Froome and Quintana a run for their money. Whether he'll win or not I don't know, but the point is that I believe he'll be up there battling for it.

It's not a stretch to think he may have already won his last GT.
If we take him at his word for it, he only has one shot left. I'm not saying his skill is declining, and I agree that if he prepares for it he'll be in the thick of the fight in next year's Tour, but he'll be facing the rest of the Fab 4 so he has, at most, a 25% chance of winning his next and final GT.

 

[Ludwig's Olaf]

He did again what he does best, exploding the peloton from the start. Froome isolated on top of the first climb, the elite group slugging it out on 100 miles amongst themselves, even though Quintana showed signs of life once again on the last of them. The first memorable stage of this year's TdF, the Giro had many of them. German TV aired a lot of interviews with sprinters like Greipel, naturally he hates the Alps and complained bitterly about too few flat stages for the likes of him. Jesus! Why can't they just go to the track? The largest hill yesterday was long, ok, but 5% gradient on average is hardly excessive.

 

[LaFlorecita]

If he cannot win the Tour there's always La Vuelta

 

[Red Rick]

Right now I'm pretty convinced that if Contador reaches the shape he had in 2014 he'd be destroying Froome in the 3rd week. We may have been overrating Froome a little bit because throughout 2013 his competitors didn't have the greatest shape, and it seems he never races 3 weeks at his absolute best.

I don't think Quintana is gonna improve much further. He looks pretty much the same as in the 2013 Tour and the last days of the 2013 Giro.

As for Nibali, I don't think his peak level is as high as Contador's, and he might not focus on the Tour next year. Besides, he's a real racer and him winning is the next best thing to me

 

[inri2000]

Re: Re:

SergeDeM wrote:
"he has, at most, a 25% chance of winning his next and final GT"

This is wild speculation, he had the best form overall last year, and even if he does retire after next season (which is far from certain) there is still the Vuelta he can go for if he fails in the Tour next year.

 

[Carols]

I for one don't think he's won his last GT . He has 2 more shots, Tour and Vuelta, before he hangs up the wheels. If he doesn't manage the Tour he will win the Vuelta again .

 

[SergeDeM]

Re:

I for one don't think he's won his last GT . He has 2 more shots, Tour and Vuelta, before he hangs up the wheels. If he doesn't manage the Tour he will win the Vuelta again .

Only if cocks up and quits or softpedals the Tour, therefore not really firing his only shot
Tour/Vuelta is just as hard as Giro/Tour.

 

[SergeDeM]

Re: Re:

SergeDeM wrote:
"he has, at most, a 25% chance of winning his next and final GT"

This is wild speculation, he had the best form overall last year, and even if he does retire after next season (which is far from certain) there is still the Vuelta he can go for if he fails in the Tour next year.

Wild speculation is the only thing we all do here

 

[Eclipse]

Re: Re:

I for one don't think he's won his last GT . He has 2 more shots, Tour and Vuelta, before he hangs up the wheels. If he doesn't manage the Tour he will win the Vuelta again .

Only if cocks up and quits or softpedals the Tour, therefore not really firing his only shot
Tour/Vuelta is just as hard as Giro/Tour.

It's not nearly as hard imo. Everyone who goes to the Vuelta will have a GT in their legs so you're on a reasonably level playing field, whereas the Giro/Tour double means you're taking on riders with completely fresh legs on both occasions.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

I for one don't think he's won his last GT . He has 2 more shots, Tour and Vuelta, before he hangs up the wheels. If he doesn't manage the Tour he will win the Vuelta again .

Only if cocks up and quits or softpedals the Tour, therefore not really firing his only shot
Tour/Vuelta is just as hard as Giro/Tour.

Vuelta usually has easier competition. Not often you get Contador, Froome and Quintana, 3 of the big 4, there like in 2014.

 

[SergeDeM]

Well, those who ride the Giro are generally in better shape than those who do the Tour, but you're right. Giro/Tour is harder.

 

[buchanan]

Re: Re:

It's one thing to take risks and it works out. But too often of late Alberto's descending has let him down or caused him to crash. He may well have won last year's Tour had it not been for a lapse in concentration or whatever it was in the Vosges last year when he crashed at 80km/h. (For the record, Nibali said afterward that Contador was descending dangerously when he crashed). Remember in 2013 Froome said the same thing when AC attacked him coming off the Alpe du'Ez? Again Contador crashed and almost took Froome out. Then just yesterday he loses a couple of minutes after crashing downhill.

I just want to know why people (like Broccolidwarf) say that Contador will take time out of Froome on descents? I just want them to name even ONE descent in a Grand Tour where he has taken a chunk of time out of Froome? Just ONE. I have named 3 recent Tour descents where he has crashed all on his own, at a big cost to himself. Especially last year when he was in such good form.

Yet they come on here saying how Froome is going to lose time to Contador on the descents, lose time on the cobbles, etc. I think it's just a combination of wishful thinking and utter bollocks.

His rivals say he is one of the better descenders among the grand tour contenders and that is good enough for me. If you listened to interviews this is a common refrain.

I repeat my appeal here (yet again) for anybody to give an example in a Grand Tour where Contador has taken a chunk of time out of Froome. Nobody can give an example because it hasn't happened. This is the point. But people (like Broccolidwarf) are already talking about how Contador might take time out of Froome on wet descents in next year's Tour! Talk about grasping at straws.

I believe Bertie finished 10 minutes+ ahead of Froome in the Vuelta 2012, and he wasn't in top shape either. Remember? A most amazing grand tour just after the boring one won by the Elvis impersonator.

I was referring specifically to descents - wet or dry. Because apparently Froome is a terrible descender and Contador an amazing descender. By the way I am a Contador fan and have been for years. I root for him , not Froome. But I am not the sort of AC fan who is blind to the truth. So when people comically start going on about how Contador will take time out of Froome on descents, I have to laugh. Because it hasn't ever happened. They're basically just wishing it to be the case, then collectively repeating it till it becomes a 'fact' in their heads that Contador takes time out of Froome downhill.

 

[Carols]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

 

[LaFlorecita]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

Yep... Paris tomorrow, celebrate Peto's green jersey, rest up (at the moment he looks like he needs a week-long nap!) and start the preparation for next year

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, only races he should race are the ones where he gets to wear pink and where he's done in 2 hours

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

Right now I'm pretty convinced that if Contador reaches the shape he had in 2014 he'd be destroying Froome in the 3rd week. We may have been overrating Froome a little bit because throughout 2013 his competitors didn't have the greatest shape, and it seems he never races 3 weeks at his absolute best.

I don't think Quintana is gonna improve much further. He looks pretty much the same as in the 2013 Tour and the last days of the 2013 Giro.

As for Nibali, I don't think his peak level is as high as Contador's, and he might not focus on the Tour next year. Besides, he's a real racer and him winning is the next best thing to me

Well, at least we saw that Froome isn't invincible anyway. He can be beaten. Unfortunately, Quintana doesn't have the climbing leg as people expected and still infant in tactic department. I believe only 100% Contador can match Froome. Contador needs a motivation to make him training hard. That's his problem, not his age. Otherwise he won't be crazy to try Giro-Tour double and just to watch his opponent helplessly attacking w/o him can't stomp them. I don't see him beyond 2016, because when someone is looking for a motivation then that's the time for them to hang their wheel. I think, 2016 TDF is going to be his last TDF before his retirement. I just hope I would be able to see him for final year winning races in his early season, rest and come back at TDF stronger as or more than 2014. Then retire on Vuelta. And of course, Prudhome will put 60km ITT in the tour next year

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

Source?

 

[rhubroma]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

After yesterday how can we expect anything else?

Well if I was hard at times on criticizing Contador's form in this race, it certainly wasn't because I enjoyed seeing him fail, but because he has so much more potential and I'm still convinced that something went wrong with his preparation the whole year.

I still think he and his staff were wrong to have approached the early season with such low form, in order to save energy for the double and that he needed to be more brilliant at the Giro (Colle della Finestra demonstrated he was not super). You just don't get better after that. In fact he hasn't.

In hindsight I think he should have been a couple of notches higher and a couple of kilos less at the Giro, to then just have taken it easy after with no racing and then enter the Tour relaxed and see what happens.

It appears in that trying to have some reserves for the Tour, really just translated into not having the form to perform at his best level. Certainly having been better earlier on couldn't have been any worse than this.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Yeah, only races he should race are the ones where he gets to wear pink and where he's done in 2 hours

He's down for San Sebastian, but I'm not sure he'll ride. I agree he should draw the line at crit races

 

[Jelantik]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

After yesterday how can we expect anything else?

Well if I was hard at times on criticizing Contador's form in this race, it certainly wasn't because I enjoyed seeing him fail, but because he has so much more potential and I'm still convinced that something went wrong with his preparation the whole year.

I still think he and his staff were wrong to have approached the early season with such low form, in order to save energy for the double and that he needed to be more brilliant at the Giro (Colle della Finestra demonstrated he was not super). You just don't get better after that. In fact he hasn't.

In hindsight I think he should have been a couple of notches higher and a couple of kilos less at the Giro, to then just have taken it easy after with no racing and then enter the Tour relaxed and see what happens.

It appears in that trying to have some reserves for the Tour, really just translated into not having the form to perform at his best level. Certainly having been better earlier on couldn't have been any worse than this.

maybe he is after being consistent over the 3 weeks tour. He said it himself that the consistency is important in this year TDF. I guess, his form isn't even close to being consistent. Maybe you are right. Him and the staff might be wrong in the approach. Who knows maybe he thinks that 2011 he was flying and fatigue in the tour. So they try to do the other way around. But all season, he was terrible. Won one stage then got kicked by Froome in the next day. After that everything just going from mediocre to worst. His form in giro wasn't that spectacular but enough to win the Giro. Finestre, I agree, is the sign that he wasn't in the top shape.

that's why i was wondering how would you improve with that kind of form and fatigue to go to Tour? My guess is, he probably hasn't overcome his fatigue yet especially with ok form in the Giro. (Dunno maybe if you aren't in top shape, everything becomes laboring. Astana attack becomes 2x harder compare if he is flying). And maybe Route du Sud is a mistake? If he has plenty of year ahead of him, he can try again for the 3rd time. (3rd time is a charm ) Since he is at the end of his career, next year he should concentrate on the Tour (+ vuelta) and be as good as he can and go out in high note. Don't go out like this year. Boy, it's really excruciating to see him struggling (even though we know the reason), but still.. painful. For rider like him, he should have been flying up the road and lit up the race.

 

[rhubroma]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

After yesterday how can we expect anything else?

Well if I was hard at times on criticizing Contador's form in this race, it certainly wasn't because I enjoyed seeing him fail, but because he has so much more potential and I'm still convinced that something went wrong with his preparation the whole year.

I still think he and his staff were wrong to have approached the early season with such low form, in order to save energy for the double and that he needed to be more brilliant at the Giro (Colle della Finestra demonstrated he was not super). You just don't get better after that. In fact he hasn't.

In hindsight I think he should have been a couple of notches higher and a couple of kilos less at the Giro, to then just have taken it easy after with no racing and then enter the Tour relaxed and see what happens.

It appears in that trying to have some reserves for the Tour, really just translated into not having the form to perform at his best level. Certainly having been better earlier on couldn't have been any worse than this.

maybe he is after being consistent over the 3 weeks tour. He said it himself that the consistency is important in this year TDF. I guess, his form isn't even close to being consistent. Maybe you are right. Him and the staff might be wrong in the approach. Who knows maybe he thinks that 2011 he was flying and fatigue in the tour. So they try to do the other way around. But all season, he was terrible. Won one stage then got kicked by Froome in the next day. After that everything just going from mediocre to worst. His form in giro wasn't that spectacular but enough to win the Giro. Finestre, I agree, is the sign that he wasn't in the top shape.

that's why i was wondering how would you improve with that kind of form and fatigue to go to Tour? My guess is, he probably hasn't overcome his fatigue yet especially with ok form in the Giro. (Dunno maybe if you aren't in top shape, everything becomes laboring. Astana attack becomes 2x harder compare if he is flying). And maybe Route du Sud is a mistake? If he has plenty of year ahead of him, he can try again for the 3rd time. (3rd time is a charm ) Since he is at the end of his career, next year he should concentrate on the Tour (+ vuelta) and be as good as he can and go out in high note. Don't go out like this year. Boy, it's really excruciating to see him struggling (even though we know the reason), but still.. painful. For rider like him, he should have been flying up the road and lit up the race.

There's no magic formula of course, but I believe, ironically, he's paying more today for not having been in better form at the Giro, because, as you propose, everything becomes more labored and, not having really recovered, can't expect to get better but only worse.

When you are in great shape, recovery is easier and the fatigue is less. Of course this has a time limit. The winning combination then is benefiting from the one, without succumbing to the later. A difficult task indeed though not impossible since it has worked for others before.

At any rate, having been a couple of notches too low the whole season and carrying a couple of kilos too many, has cost Alberto in terms of lack of explosivness, sustained power and fatigue.

I'm just suprised that they could have botched it like this.

 

[fantomas]

Majka free to go for win. Alberto is reportedly Very Tired Zero expectations today.......

Source?

Not that it matters much anymore, but Sean Yates said so on Danish TV2.

 

[LaFlorecita]

For the record, at the 2014 TDF Alberto was 2kg lighter than at the 2013 TDF. Just so you have an idea what "a couple kilos too heavy" looks like on his body.

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

For the record, at the 2014 TDF Alberto was 2kg lighter than at the 2013 TDF. Just so you have an idea what "a couple kilos too heavy" looks like on his body.

These last two days remind me 2013. What a sadness , i hope then he will close season and thinking about 2016

 

[BlurryVII]

To be honest I don't see what could beat a top shape Contador, Froome is an incredibly inconsistent rider, how can he be so weak everytime in the final week of a GT that he targetted all season.