Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[KGB]

Re: Re:

So - which opponents is Bertie gonna face at Vuelta and what are their strengths and weaknesses?

Froome: should be tired after Tour and Olympics

Chaves: hopefully will be weaker than in Giro. The profiles suit him IMHO better. He can't ITT though. The problem is he's gonna take some time in TTT.

Kruijswijk- he should be good, shouldn't he? However not as good as in Giro?


Landa: he has done 1,5 GTs already, but he was probably softpedalling almost the whole tour. He has shown better ITT in Giro - could he be a contender?

There could be some other guys, but apart from Froome (1st league) and the mentioned 2nd league guys, it's only 3rd league (König?, Lopez, tired old Purito). God knows what's with Quintana, but he would have also tour legs.

Who have I forgotten?

Valverde - he'll decide after the Olympics:
http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2016/07/25/actualidad/1469438765_806513.html

No way in hell Valverde can win the vuelta after a 3rd place in the giro and a 6th place in the tour.

It sounds strange but I am really afraid of Contador sucking in this Vuelta. This win is so incredibly important, much more important than in 2014 imo since this year it looks like most people are already saying he is past his prime and can't win anymore. Not only bookies but also fans think Contador won't win this vuelta and if he really gets beaten by Froome with tour and olympics in his legs I fear the golden days of Contador are really over. I think he is the big favorite but I'm still afraid of what happens if he doesn't win.

Well fans from this thread will cry for a few weeks and they will bring all possible scenarios how actully Contador was best on Vuelta. Contador will say ''his form was affected with tdf crashes BUT he will have now break and 100% focus on tdf2017 with even more motivation and after that announcement his fans in this thread will analyze his every day training or not even training and analyze all his twitter pics. if he is too fat or ok.
But you are regular so I am sure you know all this process.

 

[DanielSong39]

I'm thinking that Contador's primary challengers will be Froome, Quintana, Chaves, Kruijswijk. Would not surprise me at all to see a fresh rider pull off a surprise. That's what Aru did last year.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I'm thinking that Contador's primary challengers will be Froome, Quintana, Chaves, Kruijswijk. Would not surprise me at all to see a fresh rider pull off a surprise. That's what Aru did last year.

Be interesting to see what sort of challenge Chaves and Kruijswijk mount in the Vuelta. The latter was doing great in the Giro before his tumble and Chaves has impressed at his past two GTs. I did not expect Froome to ride and fatigue will obviously be a factor but at least Froome turns up to race when the odds are against him like he did last time Contador beat him in the Vuelta. Usually the fresh rider does do best in the Vuelta which is why I think the Giro riders and Contador will do best. Be interesting to see how far Froome can go on his Tour form. As for Gesink probably not podium material anymore maybe a top five on best form. Not sure if the other Yates is riding. Talansky might be a top five chance as well.

 

[Scarponi]

Re: Re:

So - which opponents is Bertie gonna face at Vuelta and what are their strengths and weaknesses?

Froome: should be tired after Tour and Olympics

Chaves: hopefully will be weaker than in Giro. The profiles suit him IMHO better. He can't ITT though. The problem is he's gonna take some time in TTT.

Kruijswijk- he should be good, shouldn't he? However not as good as in Giro?


Landa: he has done 1,5 GTs already, but he was probably softpedalling almost the whole tour. He has shown better ITT in Giro - could he be a contender?

There could be some other guys, but apart from Froome (1st league) and the mentioned 2nd league guys, it's only 3rd league (König?, Lopez, tired old Purito). God knows what's with Quintana, but he would have also tour legs.

Who have I forgotten?

Valverde - he'll decide after the Olympics:
http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2016/07/25/actualidad/1469438765_806513.html

No way in hell Valverde can win the vuelta after a 3rd place in the giro and a 6th place in the tour.

It sounds strange but I am really afraid of Contador sucking in this Vuelta. This win is so incredibly important, much more important than in 2014 imo since this year it looks like most people are already saying he is past his prime and can't win anymore. Not only bookies but also fans think Contador won't win this vuelta and if he really gets beaten by Froome with tour and olympics in his legs I fear the golden days of Contador are really over. I think he is the big favorite but I'm still afraid of what happens if he doesn't win.

Well fans from this thread will cry for a few weeks and they will bring all possible scenarios how actully Contador was best on Vuelta. Contador will say ''his form was affected with tdf crashes BUT he will have now break and 100% focus on tdf2017 with even more motivation and after that announcement his fans in this thread will analyze his every day training or not even training and analyze all his twitter pics. if he is too fat or ok.
But you are regular so I am sure you know all this process.

Is that not what a forum is made for? Discussing things about the topic?

 

[buchanan]

Re: Re:

So - which opponents is Bertie gonna face at Vuelta and what are their strengths and weaknesses?

Froome: should be tired after Tour and Olympics

Chaves: hopefully will be weaker than in Giro. The profiles suit him IMHO better. He can't ITT though. The problem is he's gonna take some time in TTT.

Kruijswijk- he should be good, shouldn't he? However not as good as in Giro?


Landa: he has done 1,5 GTs already, but he was probably softpedalling almost the whole tour. He has shown better ITT in Giro - could he be a contender?

There could be some other guys, but apart from Froome (1st league) and the mentioned 2nd league guys, it's only 3rd league (König?, Lopez, tired old Purito). God knows what's with Quintana, but he would have also tour legs.

Who have I forgotten?

Valverde - he'll decide after the Olympics:
http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2016/07/25/actualidad/1469438765_806513.html

No way in hell Valverde can win the vuelta after a 3rd place in the giro and a 6th place in the tour.

It sounds strange but I am really afraid of Contador sucking in this Vuelta. This win is so incredibly important, much more important than in 2014 imo since this year it looks like most people are already saying he is past his prime and can't win anymore. Not only bookies but also fans think Contador won't win this vuelta and if he really gets beaten by Froome with tour and olympics in his legs I fear the golden days of Contador are really over. I think he is the big favorite but I'm still afraid of what happens if he doesn't win.

Well fans from this thread will cry for a few weeks and they will bring all possible scenarios how actully Contador was best on Vuelta. Contador will say ''his form was affected with tdf crashes BUT he will have now break and 100% focus on tdf2017 with even more motivation and after that announcement his fans in this thread will analyze his every day training or not even training and analyze all his twitter pics. if he is too fat or ok.
But you are regular so I am sure you know all this process.

Lol KGB - you hit the nail on the head.

 

[dacooley]

That's all about human nature. Fans and fanboys basically are not able to wait. No one cares how hard AC is working to regain fighting form atm, but many people really badly want him to win the vuelta right here and right now as souls require a quick revenge. Someone even has already sealed 4th victory in the bag huh... That said i'm quite sure any kind of Vuelta win will be more than enough to solemnly declare AC would have demolished Sky in the Tour with that form.

 

[Kwibus]

I somehow don't expect too much of Kruijswijk at the Vuelta. Last time he tried that double he was really bad at the Vuelta.

This was in 2011 though at the age of 23 when he had his breakthrough performance at the Giro. It's really up in the air how he will perform.

Gesink may actually be a better bet to do well, but Gesink simply doesn't have enough to ride for a podium imo. Not anymore atleast.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Any one know if Horner got and invite this time

 

[LeSensei]

Re: Re:

Way more than the likes of Froome.

Froome went from struggling to beat TVG at the Dauphine to.. well we all know what happened at PSM.
Contador improves a lot between the Dauphine and the Tour but so does Froome. You're one of the few that still thinks Contador could have beaten Froome in this year's Tour

I think Froome certainly had the odds on him winning, but looking back at this TdF then I certainly gave Contador a 40% chance. Not like it matters though, but if we are going to speculate.

Froome was good at the TT's and there is plenty of reason to think Contador would've been great at them as well. It were perfect TTs for him as well, allthough the wind during the first probably favoured Froome a bit.
No way in hell Contador would've let Froome get that gap at Peyresourde and during the other MTFs Froome never dropped everybody it was nothing spectaculair. Reason enough to believe Alberto would've been atleast right up there with him.
I think there is reason enough to believe Contador would've made this Tour an incredibly interesting one, but we will never know. I think he would've, but it's what if and I hate "what if" as it's a waste of energy.

Agree with most of this. Contador would probably have lost about 40s on the first TT and gained about 5-10s on the mountain TT, so you're looking at a 30s deficit. For a start, Sagan would not have pushed on in the crosswinds if Froome bridged but Contador didn't.

I think Froome did amazingly well tactically on the Peyresourde when he took the mountain points from Majka and would definitely have caught Contador by surprise just like Quintana. But the difference is Contador wouldn't look around and chase himself. Whether he would have been able to catch Froome is debatable but worst case scenario Froome would have won the stage with a 1-2s gap and the 10s bonus. So we're looking at 40s.

Whether he would have been able to drop Froome for 40s anywhere other than Arcalis is debatable (doubt Froome would have chased Bardet like that if the GC was actually close), and given Froome's history in the Tour on the first mountain stage, even Contador would probably have been scared to attack. But assuming he wouldn't have been dropped by Porte and Froome on Ventoux (Mollema bridged, so fair to assume Contador would have too) or Finault, that's still a whole lot closer than anyone else, and we wouldn't have seen Sky cruising down the descent of the Joux-Plane with AC just 40s down on GC

Hahahahahaha

 

[Jakub]

Re: Re:

So - which opponents is Bertie gonna face at Vuelta and what are their strengths and weaknesses?

Froome: should be tired after Tour and Olympics

Chaves: hopefully will be weaker than in Giro. The profiles suit him IMHO better. He can't ITT though. The problem is he's gonna take some time in TTT.

Kruijswijk- he should be good, shouldn't he? However not as good as in Giro?


Landa: he has done 1,5 GTs already, but he was probably softpedalling almost the whole tour. He has shown better ITT in Giro - could he be a contender?

There could be some other guys, but apart from Froome (1st league) and the mentioned 2nd league guys, it's only 3rd league (König?, Lopez, tired old Purito). God knows what's with Quintana, but he would have also tour legs.

Who have I forgotten?

Valverde - he'll decide after the Olympics:
http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/2016/07/25/actualidad/1469438765_806513.html

No way in hell Valverde can win the vuelta after a 3rd place in the giro and a 6th place in the tour.

It sounds strange but I am really afraid of Contador sucking in this Vuelta. This win is so incredibly important, much more important than in 2014 imo since this year it looks like most people are already saying he is past his prime and can't win anymore. Not only bookies but also fans think Contador won't win this vuelta and if he really gets beaten by Froome with tour and olympics in his legs I fear the golden days of Contador are really over. I think he is the big favorite but I'm still afraid of what happens if he doesn't win.

well, there is something on what you wrote. But for me personally I see it a bit different: I don't think it is possible that Froome beats Bertie in this Vuelta, I mean, if it is possible, then it's because Bertie's injuries were too serious and some other riders would beat him too and someone else than Froome would win the Vuelta.
I am pretty sure that if he arrives to Vuelta in the same condition as to Tour (and avoid crashes ) he can win it. I am only afraid of his injuries and I am *** disappointed that he didn't abandon TdF after Stage 2.

And I don't know what I am looking forward to more: Bertie at Vuelta or Bertie's departure from that stupid Tinkoff!

 

[jilbiker]

Not sure what the concern is about Froome coming to Vuelta. For Froome, I smell burn out. The Olympic may be a one day race but its way bigger than the TDF, just the atmosphere, tension and pressure of the place is TDFx2, it can leave you mentally and emotionally exhuasted. We will see if he does Vuelta after that, if he does, then I really smell burn out where you don't know why your engines are not firing.

Has the Froome stock risen so high that AC should quiver when he enters a competition? Or has the AC stock fallen so low? I just watched 2011 Giro stage 9 when Bertie took charge, he was in prime form, prime confidence. I do think something that has killed the confidence of many is the Sky train. Ride at 400+ Watts such that even if you attack you can only do it for a little while before you are in the red and blow out. My question is Froome is able to stay with this 400+ Watts and still attack 2-3km to the end why can't others do that?

 

[Miburo]

Contador never loses his confidence, champs don't. He questioned himself though, in 2013.

He knew he had to change, and he did. But Contador was never scared of the sky train, he'll attack when there are 4 guys left, he has no choice. He has to, that's his destiny.

The only way to break the 400 watt thing is by going harder, again and again. But that's also why he relied a lot on his ITT, i think that was his plan for the tour at least. Lose the mininum vs Froome and then wait out, and strike hard.

That's what i think at least.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Way more than the likes of Froome.

Froome went from struggling to beat TVG at the Dauphine to.. well we all know what happened at PSM.
Contador improves a lot between the Dauphine and the Tour but so does Froome. You're one of the few that still thinks Contador could have beaten Froome in this year's Tour

I think Froome certainly had the odds on him winning, but looking back at this TdF then I certainly gave Contador a 40% chance. Not like it matters though, but if we are going to speculate.

Froome was good at the TT's and there is plenty of reason to think Contador would've been great at them as well. It were perfect TTs for him as well, allthough the wind during the first probably favoured Froome a bit.
No way in hell Contador would've let Froome get that gap at Peyresourde and during the other MTFs Froome never dropped everybody it was nothing spectaculair. Reason enough to believe Alberto would've been atleast right up there with him.
I think there is reason enough to believe Contador would've made this Tour an incredibly interesting one, but we will never know. I think he would've, but it's what if and I hate "what if" as it's a waste of energy.

Agree with most of this. Contador would probably have lost about 40s on the first TT and gained about 5-10s on the mountain TT, so you're looking at a 30s deficit. For a start, Sagan would not have pushed on in the crosswinds if Froome bridged but Contador didn't.

I think Froome did amazingly well tactically on the Peyresourde when he took the mountain points from Majka and would definitely have caught Contador by surprise just like Quintana. But the difference is Contador wouldn't look around and chase himself. Whether he would have been able to catch Froome is debatable but worst case scenario Froome would have won the stage with a 1-2s gap and the 10s bonus. So we're looking at 40s.

Whether he would have been able to drop Froome for 40s anywhere other than Arcalis is debatable (doubt Froome would have chased Bardet like that if the GC was actually close), and given Froome's history in the Tour on the first mountain stage, even Contador would probably have been scared to attack. But assuming he wouldn't have been dropped by Porte and Froome on Ventoux (Mollema bridged, so fair to assume Contador would have too) or Finault, that's still a whole lot closer than anyone else, and we wouldn't have seen Sky cruising down the descent of the Joux-Plane with AC just 40s down on GC

Guessing the gaps is really a wild guess like pretty much all of this is ofcourse, allthough common sense would say that Contador would've been right up there imo.
I don't agree with Contador letting Froome go on the Peyresourde, he wouldve never sat up there and then It's nearly impossible to get the gap Froome got. Speculating though.
What I fully disagree on is that Contador would've been scared to attack. I know there is a lotof Contador always attacks hype which sometimes is over the top, but no way in hell he would've sat on the wheels like everyone did this year, unless he absolutely doesnt feel good. Fat chance he wouldve attack lots and lots earlier then happened now as it's in his interest to break the train.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I think Contador should focus on the Giro and Vuelta next year. If he wins the Vuelta this year (and sadly that's a big if with how ridiculous Froome is) and next year he'd be sole record holder. Next year will be the Giro's 100th edition, so it will receive more media attention as well. But sadly he'll probably go for the Tour again.

Thats a nonsense.Fatigued Froome doesnt stand a chance again fresh Contador.Only Contador rivals are Kruiswijk,MAL,Purito and Chaves.

I want him to go for TdF again, he had enough Giro's and Vuelta's.I think he has a chance against top form Froome with a dedicated team, not mentioning that Froome may not be top form one year.

I think that must be the biggest doubt in his mind. Try once more the Tour or go for a record of a life?

If He wins this year Vuelta, if he do it, he will be close to eddy in the record of victories in GT´s OF ALL TIME.

And maybe being cold, and recional, that will put him in the gods more than win one more tour against Froome, even if that is a huge achievement actually.

As a Contador Fan i trully don´t know what i prefer... But, step by step... First he must win this vuelta, then he must think...

As a Contador fan I am torn as to what he should aim for next season too; Giro (especially being the 100th edition) and Vuelta, or Tour??

If he had been able to give this years Tour a 100% red hot go, then I think he could have walked away from France. If he just beats Froome, ducking fantastic. If he loses easily, then he receives his answer that he's not going to be at 'that' level anymore. Only in a scenario where he raced well and lost by around a minute or less might he feel like he had unfinished business, unanswered questions.

But he had bad luck again at the Tour.

So my answer for 2017 is that he....does what Froome does. Because it's not out of the question that Froome will target the Giro, and along with that an unlikely Giro/Tour double. It's the 100th edition, and he's won the Tour three times now. I think it's possible that he will want to win the Giro next year; especially with it being the 100th edition.

I don't think that winning the Tour will mean as much to Contador if it comes on the back of Froome targeting the Giro, so in that instance it would be best to just target the Giro, and what a 100th Giro it would then be!!

In the more likely scenario that Froome again targets the Tour 100%, then Contador should take him on head to head there. Even if he gets smashed by Chris in this Vuelta I wouldn't abandon that plan, as for that to happen it will mean that Alberto's injuries are worse than we think. His stage race record in 2016 has been very good. Not quite on 2014 level, but he's shown enough to prove that he's still amongst the best handful of stage racers in the world. And he is only a couple of years older than Froome.

 

[Jolene]

He's gotta try the Tour again, this year can't be used as any indicator of what he could or couldn't have done. Plus he'll have stronger support next year.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I somehow don't expect too much of Kruijswijk at the Vuelta. Last time he tried that double he was really bad at the Vuelta.

This was in 2011 though at the age of 23 when he had his breakthrough performance at the Giro. It's really up in the air how he will perform.

Gesink may actually be a better bet to do well, but Gesink simply doesn't have enough to ride for a podium imo. Not anymore atleast.

Gesink I agree no podium but I think Kruijswijk has more motivation this time after what happened in the Giro and a lot more experience. He looked strong in the Giro. Gesink should do a top 10 or maybe better, on best form a top 6. Talansky needs a GT result of sorts and he will be fresh like Gesink after not doing the Giro or Tour.

 

[Miburo]

What is kruiijswijk's experience? To not be an idiot and follow nibali in a descent? I still don't understand what he was thinking, i mean if you didn't get that beforehand, then you'll never get it.

That's why Contador dropped nibali in 2011 on that superlong stage, so that he had a margin on nibali for the descent but even then Nibali caught Contador and dropped him. Did Contador follow him? Of course he didn't, he already had the giro in the bad, Kruijswijk was in that giro but didn't learn nothing from it.

 

[hulkhogansknees]

After his win in Tour of Denmark, Bennati said he wants to ride the Vuelta. Great guy for Contador to have for the flats.
Do we know which other riders might make the team?

 

[Jakub]

Re:

After his win in Tour of Denmark, Bennati said he wants to ride the Vuelta. Great guy for Contador to have for the flats.
Do we know which other riders might make the team?

I already speculated baout that, I think that:

Berto
Bennati
Boaro
Bodnar
Valgren
Kreuziger
Hansen
Poljanski
Rovny/Trofimov if raised from death/Kiserlovski if recovered/Paulinho/McCarthy

Benna, Boaro, Bodnar and Valgren are needed for TTT (and flat)
Kreuziger, Hansen und Poljanski for mountains...I know - it is weak, but Tinkoff is a weak team.
Then I expect Rovny or Paulinho or Robert Kiserlovski in case he softpedalled the end of tour and can recover. No idea what's Jay McCarthy doing, could be also useful.

I don't say that this is the only possibility, but looking at the squad (minus Sagan (mtb) and minus doubleGTlegs (Majka, Tosatto)) I can't see any better variants, so I am afraid that if the managers don't follow me, they will *** it up.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Guessing the gaps is really a wild guess like pretty much all of this is ofcourse, allthough common sense would say that Contador would've been right up there imo.
I don't agree with Contador letting Froome go on the Peyresourde, he wouldve never sat up there and then It's nearly impossible to get the gap Froome got. Speculating though.
What I fully disagree on is that Contador would've been scared to attack. I know there is a lotof Contador always attacks hype which sometimes is over the top, but no way in hell he would've sat on the wheels like everyone did this year, unless he absolutely doesnt feel good. Fat chance he wouldve attack lots and lots earlier then happened now as it's in his interest to break the train.

I'm saying Contador would have been scared to attack Froome during the first week and just held the wheel, given Froome's history of dominance during the first week of the TdF when he's been leader. It did seem like a sensible strategy to just focus on not getting dropped on Arcalis, instead of trying to gain time there.
Of course he would have attacked in the 2nd and 3rd week, and we would have had an infinitely more exciting TdF to watch if Froome was challenged

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

Guessing the gaps is really a wild guess like pretty much all of this is ofcourse, allthough common sense would say that Contador would've been right up there imo.
I don't agree with Contador letting Froome go on the Peyresourde, he wouldve never sat up there and then It's nearly impossible to get the gap Froome got. Speculating though.
What I fully disagree on is that Contador would've been scared to attack. I know there is a lotof Contador always attacks hype which sometimes is over the top, but no way in hell he would've sat on the wheels like everyone did this year, unless he absolutely doesnt feel good. Fat chance he wouldve attack lots and lots earlier then happened now as it's in his interest to break the train.

I'm saying Contador would have been scared to attack Froome during the first week and just held the wheel, given Froome's history of dominance during the first week of the TdF when he's been leader. It did seem like a sensible strategy to just focus on not getting dropped on Arcalis, instead of trying to gain time there.
Of course he would have attacked in the 2nd and 3rd week, and we would have had an infinitely more exciting TdF to watch if Froome was challenged

I don't think this word applies to Contador. He would have wanted to follow wheels at a minimum and take time where advantageous (eg, stage where Froome followed Sagan).

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

What is kruiijswijk's experience? To not be an idiot and follow nibali in a descent? I still don't understand what he was thinking, i mean if you didn't get that beforehand, then you'll never get it.

That's why Contador dropped nibali in 2011 on that superlong stage, so that he had a margin on nibali for the descent but even then Nibali caught Contador and dropped him. Did Contador follow him? Of course he didn't, he already had the giro in the bad, Kruijswijk was in that giro but didn't learn nothing from it.

I think that remains to be seen but you can't deny that SK was riding well before the crash. Anyway I hope it's an interesting Vuelta after such a Tour and I hope someone mounts a challenge against Contador. The Vuelta generally is an entertaining race these days.

 

[Jakub]

So I found first bets.
Quintana 6/4
Bertie 9/4
Froome 5/2
Chaves 5/1
Grannieto 9/1
Kruijswijk 22/1

A total *** imho, can't see Quintana do strong, bzw. Stronger than last year.
Anyway when you switch Bertie and Quintana it suddenly starts to make sense.

 

[Valv.Piti]

When a random bookmakers put forth their bets, its isn't a case of the general consensus. Its one bookmaker. It could be your or me who made the odds.

Obviously Alberto is the favourite, there is no doubt. Wait till the big boys get into the market

 

[LaFlorecita]

Actually on OddsChecker based on "best odds" i.e. biggest return
Alberto has 9/4 best odds
Froome 11/4
Quintana 4/1