Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Puccini]

 

[LaFlorecita]

Ion should have better odds honestly, and Spilak behind Henao is laughable. Both are behind on GC, but only Spilak could take time on most of his opponents in the TT. Just shows that the bookies know nothing, once again I guess Contador ahead of Valverde is right if you just look at their results in the past few years, but Valverde is in really good form so I'd put him at the same or better odds.

 

[DFA123]

Looks like the bookies aren't being swayed much by Contadors's words. On a slightly related note; I saw that the odds for the stage win tomorrow have Valverde and Contador as favourites, with Roglic at about 4/1 and Kwiatkowski 12/1. So they seem to think the climb is going to play a much bigger role than the gently rolling section. Weather predicts a headwind on the climb, and tailwind on most of the flat - not especially strong though, but it could be a reason I guess.

 

[myrideissteelerthanyours]

Re: Re:

The only way you deserve to win is if you finish in first place, regardless of how you got there. (as long as its legal! )

Nonsense.

So in your opinion if rider A attacks with 100km to go and builds a 5 minute advantage on his own, gets hit by a motorcycle and crashes into a ravine, climbs out, continues, breaks his chain, has to wait two minutes before he gets a new bike, gets caught 50 meters before the line by rider B, who just sat on the back of a group of 20 riders for the entire race, rider A didn't deserve the win?

Is this a chaingate reference?

 

[Jelantik]

I have to give it to Valverde. He is much older than Contador, but he's like a wine. The older he gets, the more successful he is. He seems to be in the top form now. So if we are talking about age, it won't be an excuse for Contador. For me, Contador score card for his early season is on par for his standard. Nothing impressive as far as getting the win. For a rider as his caliber, winning seems to be harder and harder to get compare to Valverde. I don't know if it's too much calculation, just the parcour doesn't suit him or whatever reason.

He seems to hit the deck more often than any other GC contender (Froome, Quintana etc.) Again compare to Valverde, Contador doesn't seem to have the same luck as him. While everyone hitting the cone with Contador hits the deck, Valverde was cruising upfront with his team mate. Today is supposed to be a hard climb, still Valverde has the best of Contador. Tomorrow is another day. Maybe Contador finally got his win or Valverde got the best of him again. If it's the latter, it must be suck for Contador.

 

[rhubroma]

Re:

Contador: "Me sentí bien, pero fui conservador por la caída"
"I felt good, but I was conservative because of the crash"

This seems to confirm my conclusion that, after repeatedly going down, he lost those 3 seconds, because when Sanchez crashed it was "nerves" that held him up. Understandable, though unfortunate if he looses this race by less than 3 seconds.

On the other hand if he was slightly holding back (conservador), he may have more power for the TT.

 

[movingtarget]

Valverde has been flying the past few weeks. I would not be surprised to see him win this race and then clean up in the Ardenne as well. But I can't see him holding this form throughout the season. I think he will hit the wall in the GTs.

 

[rhubroma]

Valverde can win this, although he seems less dominant than Catalunya. As far as the Ardennes go, after Liege in theory it is possible to rest and be back at top form for the Tour, passing through the Dauphine.

As far as Contador is concerned he can win this too, but the crashes leave doubt over the actual state of his form. In any case he needs a considerable margin of improvement to win the Tour. Does this mean he isn't near top shape at the moment, as should be the case if the Tour is the big objective? Is this why Valverde has been so dominant in this first part of the season (Contador not being the only competition)?

Contador needs to be very good at the Dauphine, the strongest rider of the race having been so at the Tour as well over past years, to be a credible contender for the title in July. I'm sure his team and staff know this.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Valverde can win this, although he seems less dominant than Catalunya. As far as the Ardennes go, after Liege in theory it is possible to rest and be back at top form for the Tour, passing through the Dauphine.

As far as Contador is conserned he can win this too, but the crashes leave doubt over the actual state of his form. In any case he needs a considerable margin of improvement to win the Tour. Does this mean he isn't near top shape at the moment, as should be the case if the Tour is the big objective? Is this why Valverde has been so dominant in this first part of the season (Contador not being the only competition)?

Contador needs to be very good at the Dauphine, the strongest rider of the race having been so at the Tour as well over past years, to be a credible contender for the title in July. I'm sure his team and staff know this.

It's pretty simple for Contador. He crashes too often and often during big races or going into big races. Which has to affect his recovery and his form. If this keeps happening leading into the Tour he has no chance. He needs a couple of healthy training and racing months before the Tour to have any chance for a podium. Valverde will be competitive in the GTs but I doubt he will podium. The guy is competitive in everything he goes in !

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Contador needs to be very good at the Dauphine, the strongest rider of the race having been so at the Tour as well over past years, to be a credible contender for the title in July. I'm sure his team and staff know this.

Actually he will use Dauphiné just for training, so no, he won't be the strongest and doesn't need to be.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

He needs a couple of healthy training and racing months before the Tour to have any chance for a podium.

He's so underrated. I understand he hasn't podiumed a TDF since 2010 but if he doesn't crash he has a very good chance to finish on the podium. "Have any chance for a podium"? Don't make me laugh. If Froome crashes out and he does not, he's likely the #1 fave for the win. There, I said it.

 

[LaFlorecita]

So if we are talking about age, it won't be an excuse for Contador.

What kind of logic is this? So because Horner won a Vuelta as an ancient fossil, age isn't an excuse for anyone below the age of 42?
Every rider is different, you know. That Valverde is able to perform at his best at 37 doesn't mean many others can. Age is definitely an excuse for Contador.

 

[dacooley]

using the dauphine merely like a training race is senseless. what perfectly worked in the years of pure domination doesn't seem effective after froome's appearance. that's a thing sky and de jongh definetely taught ac imo. most of us still obviously like looking back at 2007-2010, using those editions like an excuse in the case of ac getting defeated. in reality his dauphine goal is exactly the same as in all other races - performing as best as possible and winning. today bertie should put another pais vasco win in his pocket, then take a short break and do a few high-altitude training blocks before first real clash against froome and quintana in the dauphine.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Not really. He wants to arrive at the Tour more rested than in previous years. He'll (try to) take it easy at the Dauphiné and he'll go om vacation after Pais Vasco.
I don't understand why you think he will and even wants to copy Froome. What works for Froome, doesn't work for everyone. They're totally different riders with totally different build-ups. Froome hides in South Africa for 3 months while Contador is racing. I also think Contador realizes he will never win the Dauphiné in a straight-up battle with Froome so there is no use in going all out.
So you'd better prepare yourself or you'll be disappointed, there won't be any real clashing between Contador and Froome at the Dauphiné.

 

[rei_da_montanha]

Re:

Valverde has been flying the past few weeks. I would not be surprised to see him win this race and then clean up in the Ardenne as well. But I can't see him holding this form throughout the season. I think he will hit the wall in the GTs.

I agree with you, Valverde is flying. But in Ardennes, Philippe Gilbert will eat Valverde alive.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I'd like to point out again that I wrote 'too hurt', as in, not too hurt. You know when he doesn't have problems closing Valverde's attacks down time and time again. Thats a sensible conclusion, isn't it.

We could turn it around and say normally Contador should easily be able to drop Uran and the likes so he was clearly hurt by the crash

My point is we don't know how badly he was hurt. No, clearly he wasn't terribly hurt otherwise he'd have done worse. That's the only thing we can conclude.
What annoys me is that you wrote it in such a way as if to say, "see, I was right, he exaggerated the effects of his crash again" which is a conclusion we cannot make.

Don't overanalyse things and try to make me look like such a bad guy.

Look, we know Valverde is in some amazing form and you yourself predicted that Contador would finish in 8th or something if I remember correctly. Clearly, you were expecting worse based on his crash and the way he has raced this race.

Then we watch the stage and Valverde makes a bunch of really serious attacks, yet can't gap Contador which means that the crash obviously hasn't affected him that much (we believe going into the race that they were equally good, Valverde and Contador, so that Contador without the crash should have been able to drop Valverde on this climb by 20 seconds or so is unrealistic).

Thats why I assume he wasn't hurt too bad, hence why I wrote it. God damn you are quick to get defensive when I write in here.

Don't you at least have the decency to respond to this post? Your semi-condescending behaviour and your roll-eyes are pretty annoying to deal with on a regular basis when I am posting in this thread. You are so quickly so get extremely defensive of Contador.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What can I can say except that we'll never agree on anything
Waste of time to argue

 

[Matteo.]

I'm quite surprised : accomplice the crash, I was expecting a loss of 10-15s
We will see his true shape today

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

What can I can say except that we'll never agree on anything
Waste of time to argue

Classic. This is you on an internet forum:
So you still cling onto that Contador was more than 'not too hurt' which essentially translate to pretty hurt?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

What can I can say except that we'll never agree on anything
Waste of time to argue

Classic. This is you on an internet forum:
So you still cling onto that Contador was more than 'not too hurt' which essentially translate to pretty hurt?

No my point was that we don't know how hurt he was and how much it affected his performance.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

What can I can say except that we'll never agree on anything
Waste of time to argue

Classic. This is you on an internet forum:
So you still cling onto that Contador was more than 'not too hurt' which essentially translate to pretty hurt?

No my point was that we don't know how hurt he was and how much it affected his performance.

No. You would want so badly to believe that Contador was hurting quite a bit and it affected his performance to the extent that the crash wasn't just a minor setback despite everything we know (my arguments above) point to something different and he without the crash would have flown away from Valverde on that climb like in the good, old days. You can say otherwise, but arguing with you and reading your posts on this forum has made you so transparent.

Thats essentially what you are saying, I cant interpret it otherwise. And thats why I hate that Contador crashing probably as much as you do considering we would have to go through this kind of debate over and over again. You will always be able to point to crashes as the reason we apparently never get to see a 100% Contador and cling on the the hope that is essential as a so dedicated fan as yourself. The hope.

 

[LaFlorecita]

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

 

[rhubroma]

Re: Re:

Contador needs to be very good at the Dauphine, the strongest rider of the race having been so at the Tour as well over past years, to be a credible contender for the title in July. I'm sure his team and staff know this.

Actually he will use Dauphiné just for training, so no, he won't be the strongest and doesn't need to be.

Flo if he doesn't make a good showing in the Dauphine, like in 2014, you can write him off for the Tour.

The Dauphine is always preparation for the larger goal of the Tour, but you're kidding yourself if you think Contador isn't in contention at the former he can still get good enough to be a serious contender in July.

He needs to be really good, which doensn't mean win the Dauphine, but very good yes.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Contador needs to be very good at the Dauphine, the strongest rider of the race having been so at the Tour as well over past years, to be a credible contender for the title in July. I'm sure his team and staff know this.

Actually he will use Dauphiné just for training, so no, he won't be the strongest and doesn't need to be.

Flo if he doesn't make a good showing in the Dauphine, like in 2014, you can write him off for the Tour.

The Dauphine is always preparation for the larger goal of the Tour, but you're kidding yourself if you think Contador isn't in contention at the former he can still get good enough to be a serious contender in July.

He needs to be really good, which doensn't mean win the Dauphine, but very good yes.

She knows that, but saying that helps keeping down the expectations and should he crash In TdF and people will point towards Dauphine where he was beaten, the argument will be it was pure training and he would improve a lot between those two races like before the suspension.