Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re: Re:

I watched a replay of La Port this morning. It was his "worst" performance in the spring but yet in hindsight he was still pretty strong. There is good reason for optimism this year...

Yeah. Berto just came from a gruelling Paris-Nice so it wasn't strange that he was a bit below par. Valverde was strong of course but in Andalucia Berto dropped him, in Pais Vasco Arrate he could follow and the TT the day after he took a lot of time on the climb. So thinking about it I am not too worried, I doubt we'll see Valverde ride away from Berto at the Tour (unless Berto blows himself up again). Of course, bonus seconds can be an issue.

Valverde still won all of those races tho, so he certainly is a big rival, also for the upcoming TdF.

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I watched a replay of La Port this morning. It was his "worst" performance in the spring but yet in hindsight he was still pretty strong. There is good reason for optimism this year...

Yeah. Berto just came from a gruelling Paris-Nice so it wasn't strange that he was a bit below par. Valverde was strong of course but in Andalucia Berto dropped him, in Pais Vasco Arrate he could follow and the TT the day after he took a lot of time on the climb. So thinking about it I am not too worried, I doubt we'll see Valverde ride away from Berto at the Tour (unless Berto blows himself up again). Of course, bonus seconds can be an issue.

Valverde still won all of those races tho, so he certainly is a big rival, also for the upcoming TdF.

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Not sure about that. I think there is a very high chance that either Contador or Valverde will finish on the podium - quite possibly both. The Porte hype has reached ridiculous levels - for a 32 year old whose highest ever GT finish is 5th and who has only ever finished one GT without at least one disastrous day. And who positions poorly inthe peloton, can't descend well, can't TT as well as he used to and has a team with split loyalites. And Quintana is basically an unknown quantity - he could respond well from the Giro and challenge Froome, or he could struggle and end up stage hunting or supporting Valverde. I'd say the latter scenario is probably slightly more likely.

Contador and Valverde are definitely joint 2nd favourites at the moment for me (with Quintana as a wild card) and - if something happens to Froome - then suddenly they are the men to beat.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Valverde 1st - Froome 2nd - Porte 3rd. You heard it here first. Contador will probably crash somewhere in the first week and will either abandon or be too banged up to do anything of note. I think Contador still has the level to be on the podium (& with some luck even win) but not on this parcours.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Valverde 1st - Froome 2nd - Porte 3rd. You heard it here first. Contador will probably crash somewhere in the first week and will either abandon or be too banged up to do anything of note. I think Contador still has the level to be on the podium (& with some luck even win) but not on this parcours.

I wouldnt complain about that.

I just switch Porte and Froome

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Valverde 1st - Froome 2nd - Porte 3rd. You heard it here first. Contador will probably crash somewhere in the first week and will either abandon or be too banged up to do anything of note. I think Contador still has the level to be on the podium (& with some luck even win) but not on this parcours.

Not sure if joking or if your account was hacked

 

[Kokoso]

Why isn't he among teh favorites in teh cycklingnews article about the riders to watch at the Dauphiné ?

Because there is no need to rimend people to watch Contador. Journalist point was different from pointing out obvious, he gave some interesting tips.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I watched a replay of La Port this morning. It was his "worst" performance in the spring but yet in hindsight he was still pretty strong. There is good reason for optimism this year...

Yeah. Berto just came from a gruelling Paris-Nice so it wasn't strange that he was a bit below par. Valverde was strong of course but in Andalucia Berto dropped him, in Pais Vasco Arrate he could follow and the TT the day after he took a lot of time on the climb. So thinking about it I am not too worried, I doubt we'll see Valverde ride away from Berto at the Tour (unless Berto blows himself up again). Of course, bonus seconds can be an issue.

Valverde still won all of those races tho, so he certainly is a big rival, also for the upcoming TdF.

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Not sure about that. I think there is a very high chance that either Contador or Valverde will finish on the podium - quite possibly both. The Porte hype has reached ridiculous levels - for a 32 year old whose highest ever GT finish is 5th and who has only ever finished one GT without at least one disastrous day. And who positions poorly inthe peloton, can't descend well, can't TT as well as he used to and has a team with split loyalites. And Quintana is basically an unknown quantity - he could respond well from the Giro and challenge Froome, or he could struggle and end up stage hunting or supporting Valverde. I'd say the latter scenario is probably slightly more likely.

Contador and Valverde are definitely joint 2nd favourites at the moment for me (with Quintana as a wild card) and - if something happens to Froome - then suddenly they are the men to beat.

i think the Porte criticism took a hit in last year's Tour as it was a noticeable improvement along with his customary bad luck. I think if Froome is not in form it's quite an open race including Porte. A Froome in last year's Tour form will be hard to crack of course. The main thing for Contador is getting through the first week without a fall and settling into the race in a good position. If Quintana missed the podium I wouldn't be surprised. I think Movistar will go into the race with two leaders and switch to Valverde if he is riding well.

 

[LeSensei]

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Valverde 1st - Froome 2nd - Porte 3rd. You heard it here first. Contador will probably crash somewhere in the first week and will either abandon or be too banged up to do anything of note. I think Contador still has the level to be on the podium (& with some luck even win) but not on this parcours.

Not sure if joking or if your account was hacked

Neither, I'm just not at all confident Alberto will get through all those nervous flat stages (& descents...) unscathed.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: Re:

I watched a replay of La Port this morning. It was his "worst" performance in the spring but yet in hindsight he was still pretty strong. There is good reason for optimism this year...

Yeah. Berto just came from a gruelling Paris-Nice so it wasn't strange that he was a bit below par. Valverde was strong of course but in Andalucia Berto dropped him, in Pais Vasco Arrate he could follow and the TT the day after he took a lot of time on the climb. So thinking about it I am not too worried, I doubt we'll see Valverde ride away from Berto at the Tour (unless Berto blows himself up again). Of course, bonus seconds can be an issue.

Valverde still won all of those races tho, so he certainly is a big rival, also for the upcoming TdF.

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Not sure about that. I think there is a very high chance that either Contador or Valverde will finish on the podium - quite possibly both. The Porte hype has reached ridiculous levels - for a 32 year old whose highest ever GT finish is 5th and who has only ever finished one GT without at least one disastrous day. And who positions poorly inthe peloton, can't descend well, can't TT as well as he used to and has a team with split loyalites. And Quintana is basically an unknown quantity - he could respond well from the Giro and challenge Froome, or he could struggle and end up stage hunting or supporting Valverde. I'd say the latter scenario is probably slightly more likely.

Contador and Valverde are definitely joint 2nd favourites at the moment for me (with Quintana as a wild card) and - if something happens to Froome - then suddenly they are the men to beat.

Sounds a lot like Bradley Wiggins, circa 2012. Maybe Porte found some marginal gains?

 

[lenric]

Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

 

[DanielSong39]

If Contador performs well he can make the podium. If he performs really well and gets lucky he can win.

Probably the fourth choice at this point behind Froome, Porte, and Quintana so he at least has an outside chance. Probably about the same as Dumoulin had coming into the Giro.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

Well people who only watch the Tour wouldn't think Contador is all that good

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re: Re:

Neither Valverde nor Contador is highly likely to podium, IMO. Contador probably needs echelon stages to put time into or tire out key rivals like Quintana and Porte and be competitive for second place.

I'm guessing that climbing marginally better than Valverde won't do..

Valverde 1st - Froome 2nd - Porte 3rd. You heard it here first. Contador will probably crash somewhere in the first week and will either abandon or be too banged up to do anything of note. I think Contador still has the level to be on the podium (& with some luck even win) but not on this parcours.

Not sure if joking or if your account was hacked

Neither, I'm just not at all confident Alberto will get through all those nervous flat stages (& descents...) unscathed.

But about Valverde winning it?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

But about Valverde winning it?

The parcours suits him to a T

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

Actually the exact opposite is the case. People who only watch the tour and look at Contadors wiki page would think he hasn't been really good since 2009. Fact is that Contador hasn't finished a gt in peak shape for ages, although looking at his performances in the vuelta 2016 and the last week of the giro 2015 it's also hard to believe that he could have challenged Froome in these years. Then again his performances in one week races or his whole 2014 season aren't any worse than Contador pre ban.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

Well people who only watch the Tour wouldn't think Contador is all that good

No. They'd say exactly what the guy said: he hits the floor 2/3 times per TDF, hence his peak performance can't be measured.

@giggs

Wrong. 2 times.
People who only see TDF and his wiki page realize that his performance in the Tour has been hampered by falls.
Regarding what wikipedia says about his performance in one week races, people would think he's hardly worse than pre-2012. It's pretty easy to infer that premisis if you look into it, particularly on the bottom of the page, where you can see "Major stage race general classification results timeline".

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

Actually the exact opposite is the case. People who only watch the tour and look at Contadors wiki page would think he hasn't been really good since 2009. Fact is that Contador hasn't finished a gt in peak shape for ages, although looking at his performances in the vuelta 2016 and the last week of the giro 2015 it's also hard to believe that he could have challenged Froome in these years. Then again his performances in one week races or his whole 2014 season aren't any worse than Contador pre ban.

One week form doesn't mean that much in grand tours. Plenty of riders can do well in one week races but not over three weeks. No one really knows what Contador can do in the Tour because it's been so long since he made the podium. Valverde has showed over his career that he is a better one week rider than three weeks but this is a good course for him and he has had a great start to the season. If Contador has issues again in this year's Tour either with performance or otherwise he should just forget it and do the Giro and Vuelta next year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

If Contador has issues again in this year's Tour either with performance or otherwise he should just forget it and do the Giro and Vuelta next year.

that is the plan either way

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I think people have dismissed Contador because these last few years he hasn't really been able to compete in TdF. That doesn't mean he does not have the legs anymore. Let's refresh our minds a bit:
2014 - couldnt compete in the tour, crashed. Arguably best form ever. Couldnt prove it.
2015 - very good form in Giro. Couldnt show that same form in Tour, busted from the effort.
2016 - overall decent form throughout the season. Clearly improving by the Dauphine. Crashed in TdF, couldnt prove it.

My point is, we really haven't got to see Contador's REAL form when it matters - TdF. People who give him no chance to even podium made no account for this. Imo, Contador will podium this year and will have a shot at the Tour, SO LONG as he does not crash out. His problem isn't Froome, his problem is crashing. Fingers crossed this year.

Contador has proved he's not what he used to be.
Only those who only watch TDF and his wikipedia page think otherwise.

That doesn't mean he's a crappy rider, because he's obviously not.

Well people who only watch the Tour wouldn't think Contador is all that good

No. They'd say exactly what the guy said: he hits the floor 2/3 times per TDF, hence his peak performance can't be measured.

@giggs

Wrong. 2 times.
People who only see TDF and his wiki page realize that his performance in the Tour has been hampered by falls.
Regarding what wikipedia says about his performance in one week races, people would think he's hardly worse than pre-2012. It's pretty easy to infer that premisis if you look into it, particularly on the bottom of the page, where you can see "Major stage race general classification results timeline".

I disagree, people would after all also see his bad tdf results from 2013 and 2015 and although people will see that he crashed out in 2014 that doesn't mean a wiki page shows that he actually might have won that tdf since he was in better shape than in other post ban years. Anyway I don't think this is a topic worth discussing. I think it's quite obvious Contador is past his prime although I don't think he is as bad as some others might think.

 

[LeSensei]

I'm sorry but saying Quintana will podium in this Tour and Contador won't is a joke. Contador in his peak wasn't able to achieve the double. Quintana is like 2 steps below the best Contador we've seen. It's not even debatable.

 

[Simurgh]

I read somewhere on this forum (or in the clinic), that Contador hasn't slowed significantly down post-ban (his level has remained steady, to clarify), but that others have simply been improving over the last few years. Is there some truth to this?

Edit: It was in the clinic in the "power-estimates for climbing thread": viewtopic.php?f=20&t=8839&start=3220

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I read somewhere on this forum (or in the clinic), that Contador hasn't slowed significantly down post-ban (his level has remained steady, to clarify), but that others have simply been improving over the last few years. Is there some truth to this?

Edit: It was in the clinic in the "power-estimates for climbing thread": viewtopic.php?f=20&t=8839&start=3220

Pretty sure there's a reason that was in the clinic. His level, compared to his contemporaries who rode back then and right now, has declined.

 

[Climber123]

Alberto Contador = Roger Federer

People have been saying they are past there prime for the last 5 years now. Both winning big before the arrival of equally matched opponents in Froome/Quintana/Nibali = Nadal/Djokovik/Murray. It's easy to forget that like the big 4 era in tennis is perhaps unmatched we actually have the same in GT cycling at the moment.

Contador is not (much) worse, the competition is just substantially better. Contador '14 was the best version ever in my opinion and it was just about a match for Froome. Not better, not worse, just on par.

Berto still believes because he knows on his day in top form he can be up there. And win TDF with some luck.

Remember Federer won a Grand Slam this year, it can happen for Berto.

 

[Red Rick]

I really don't think Federer is playing his best tennis ever right now. None of the top 5 at the ATP tour are.