Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

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Aug 16, 2011
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The Hitch said:
I don't know. I think it would be seriously risking the entire rest of his career to go for the Vuelta and he will probably feel he has no chance for it.
But what if he achieved it? It's a career maker far more then a career breaker. And it would guarantee him a spot in the cycling hall of fame (that is to say he would be forever remembered for it).

That being said Giro-Tour is already pretty dam hard, and probably too hard for the thought of doing the triple to be considered too much at this point.
 
Thing with the Vuelta is that he should quit it as soon as its clear than he can't win. Simple as that, just drop out as soon as you can't win. Could be in the first week already. 2nd with only the parade to go? Don't start the last stage:D
 
Afrank said:
But what if he achieved it? It's a career maker far more then a career breaker. And it would guarantee him a spot in the cycling hall of fame (that is to say he would be forever remembered for it).

That being said Giro-Tour is already pretty dam hard, and probably too hard for the thought of doing the triple to be considered too much at this point.
Didn't Armstrong say he would in a heartbeat give up all the tours he already won just to win the next one?

Athletes dont want to be remembered from their couches as much as feel the glory of the win.
 
The Hitch said:
Didn't Armstrong say he would in a heartbeat give up all the tours he already won just to win the next one?

Athletes dont want to be remembered from their couches as much as feel the glory of the win.
But Alberto said that he wants to retire at the top. He does not have many years left. Why does it matter if trying the triple will burn him out at 36 instead of 38 when he's going to retire before 35?

I get the feeling he does not care much for winning anymore, he wants to try something special. So I doubt Alberto is like Lance.
 
LaFlorecita said:
I think saying that a cyclist, who has a track record of 8 GTs won out of 11 finished, has a 50% chance to win a GT with very little opposition is closer to trolling, honestly.
Looking at GT's finished makes very little sense for obvious reasons. If we do go down that road of manipulating numbers, one could argue that giving him 50% chance of winning a GT is unreasonably high, considering he only won 1 of the last 3 he entered.

I'm aware that you are just exaggerating and don't seriously believe that AC has 95% chance of winning the Giro, but just take a look at what chances the bookmakers give him of winning, and I'm sure you'll be convinced that you are overrating his chances.
 
Jun 5, 2014
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LaFlorecita said:
But Alberto said that he wants to retire at the top. He does not have many years left. Why does it matter if trying the triple will burn him out at 36 instead of 38 when he's going to retire before 35?

I get the feeling he does not care much for winning anymore, he wants to try something special. So I doubt Alberto is like Lance.
Lance cared only for the money and the fame (Tour= biggest race). He wanted to be regarded as the best by everyone including occasional viewers. And he was afraid to have someone outclimb him at the Tour hence no Giro and some calls to the UCI if necessary.
Alberto is a cycling fan. We wish diversity...different and difficult tasks...competition on all terrains...and he gives it to us...and to himself. He could have been a big cycling fan on this forum if he wasn't riding :D

And concerning age. Lance probably cared for the record books. 1 thing they both have in common : They want to retire at the top. But Lance did it because he was afraid of RoboBasso coming up. If there was only a decent chance he would be beaten - horror for him.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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Hitch is right, 80% is as far as you can go for the giro, maybe 85%

Of course he has no competition.

But he might crash, have a bad day or one of his competitors can have an amazing 3 week race.

Happened before, saying 98% for example is just ridiculous.
 
Miburo said:
Hitch is right, 80% is as far as you can go for the giro, maybe 85%

Of course he has no competition.

But he might crash, have a bad day or one of his competitors can have an amazing 3 week race.

Happened before, saying 98% for example is just ridiculous.
You are correct, as I mentioned earlier when posting my estimation for the TDF, I only base it on strength as the chances to crash out are very hard to estimate. Some years many GC favorites crash out, some years almost none (and always less in the Giro). I guess we could look at Alberto's results (1x crashed out in 12 GT starts)

But then he could get ill, get an untimely mechanical, etc etc etc. Which is why I look at the strength of the challengers. I will also always say "if they all stay healthy etc x and y should be the favorites"
 
Red Rick said:
These number discussions are really pointless, more so at this point in the year, unless you were all considering betting your house on it.
I don't see why they are pointless. The fact that there is still 3½ month to go before the departure obviously makes it much more unlikely that he'll win, though, so you're right about that. And yes, some people here should really bet their house on AC winning the Giroif they truly believe he has like 80% chance of winning ;)
 
Hugo Koblet said:
I don't see why they are pointless. The fact that there is still 3½ month to go before the departure obviously makes it much more unlikely that he'll win, though, so you're right about that. And yes, some people here should really bet their house on AC winning the Giroif they truly believe he has like 80% chance of winning ;)
If I was a betting man then I would put a fair amount on him winning. :)
 
Hugo Koblet said:
Can someone explain to me why it's pointless to discuss Contador's chances of winning the Giro in the dedicated Contador threat? Because I fail to see why :confused:
You, or anybody else has the right to speculate. IMO speculation is pointless...it's like "whatever" [put your favorite California girl voice].
 

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