Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Red Rick]

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

If thats what fading means, I think Froome will be in for a good July.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

If thats what fading means, I think Froome will be in for a good July.

That, or he's just not great at hilly tt's. Because honestly, if I see a guy winning by minutes in the mountains, and gaining minutes in a flat tt, I don't expect that he can only just win the hilly tt because he switched his bike.

Take a look at the other riders there. Had that tt been in the first two weeks he'd have smashed it. On the other hand, if they'd do that same tt this year, expect both Contador and Quintana to do better than they did.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

If thats what fading means, I think Froome will be in for a good July.

That, or he's just not great at hilly tt's. Because honestly, if I see a guy winning by minutes in the mountains, and gaining minutes in a flat tt, I don't expect that he can only just win the hilly tt because he switched his bike.

Take a look at the other riders there. Had that tt been in the first two weeks he'd have smashed it

I don't know how much many conclusion we can draw from that ITT, but let me try:

Froome distanced Contador (and Quintana) hopelessly on the 2 previous MTF's and the ITT (but Quintana could obviously have been much closer on both occasions due to his 'long range' attacks). However, Contador was really close in this one which could mean a) Froome faded rather drastically from Ventoux to ITT or b) Froome is a mediocre hilly time trialist compared to Contador or c) Contador simply has a superb day and Froome a rather underwhelming one.

I think that Froome, as you, faded a little compared to his previous performances in the 3 stages previously mentioned while Contador had an incredible day relative to his overall Tour and shape in 2013. I don't buy that Froome is mediocre or not that good in hilly ITT's - remember the Dauphine prologue in 2014? I know its somewhat apples and oranges, but it was rather hilly and Froome dominated the field, including a peak Contador (in terms of his year in general), on that occasion. But there is no question what so ever than Contador definitely is an excellent time trialist in hilly/mountanious terrain, probably better than Froome (on such a course as in 2013), but I say we won't know for sure. I can't remember them going up against each other in similar ITT's and I don't buy the argument that Froome is significantly worse than Contador in that discipline. We will hopefully know after this Tour - both time trials are in between the ITT mentioned that Froome narrowly won in terms of difficulty.

 

[Red Rick]

I agree. I do think however that Contador is more of a natural hilly tt rider. He performs relatively well in them no matter how bad his shape is, whereas I think Froome really needs to be good to excell at that kind of tt's

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

If thats what fading means, I think Froome will be in for a good July.

That, or he's just not great at hilly tt's. Because honestly, if I see a guy winning by minutes in the mountains, and gaining minutes in a flat tt, I don't expect that he can only just win the hilly tt because he switched his bike.

Take a look at the other riders there. Had that tt been in the first two weeks he'd have smashed it

I don't know how much many conclusion we can draw from that ITT, but let me try:

Froome distanced Contador (and Quintana) hopelessly on the 2 previous MTF's and the ITT (but Quintana could obviously have been much closer on both occasions due to his 'long range' attacks). However, Contador was really close in this one which could mean a) Froome faded rather drastically from Ventoux to ITT or b) Froome is a mediocre hilly time trialist compared to Contador or c) Contador simply has a superb day and Froome a rather underwhelming one.

I think that Froome, as you, faded a little compared to his previous performances in the 3 stages previously mentioned while Contador had an incredible day relative to his overall Tour and shape in 2013. I don't buy that Froome is mediocre or not that good in hilly ITT's - remember the Dauphine prologue in 2014? I know its somewhat apples and oranges, but it was rather hilly and Froome dominated the field, including a peak Contador (in terms of his year in general), on that occasion. But there is no question what so ever than Contador definitely is an excellent time trialist in hilly/mountanious terrain, probably better than Froome (on such a course as in 2013), but I say we won't know for sure. I can't remember them going up against each other in similar ITT's and I don't buy the argument that Froome is significantly worse than Contador in that discipline. We will hopefully know after this Tour - both time trials are in between the ITT mentioned that Froome narrowly won in terms of difficulty.

we shall see at stage 1 Dauphene pretty soon . Granted that if both of them want to win Dauphene.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

Absolutely wrong. If he's bad, he's bad, he'll never win the tour even if he has 8 godlike climbers. Look at tour 2013 for example, he had a great team, kreuziger was in his best shape ever.

And in great form it's not gonna be a walkover, he still needs great climbers for several circumstances.

The rouleurs are in both bad and good form of pretty much the same value. Contador in really good shape doesn't even need good rouleurs. He can close gaps on the flat himself.

Look at PN '09 and giro '11 in which Declercq stated that Contador was closing gaps on the flat like it was nothing while everyone was on their limit.

And if you forgot what happened in PN '09, there was an echelon stage. Contador was behind and he closed a gap in the wind by himself. Only the true greats can, it's super hard to do that.

But you forgot something. He was way younger. Now he is 33? Before even closing the gap on the flat, let's see if he can attack and stick against Froome and Quintana like he used to do.

He doesn't have to. Today the science has changed training and racing. The attacks are now more acute, but longer. This is where Froome has prooved irresistable. Contador doesn't need to attack. He should follow, because he can follow if in top shape. This fact must be remembered when challenging Froome, as he demonstrated when both were on equal terms at the 14 Vuelta. He's got the secret weapon of an accelleration when nobody has anything left, but only first if Froome has shot his bullets. He can accellerate when Froome's watts fade. Froome has to ride the competition off his wheel. Normally this works, however, a top form Alberto can sit on his wheel and wait. Then when Froome must drop pace...Boom!

I think Quintana might be ready to also sit on Froome's wheel, so this will change the dynamic.

+1. I think there is a lot of truth here. We'll see how things play out next week (I want to see Contador follow, not necessarily go deep to drop, Froome).

 

[buchanan]

It's getting really ridiculous when forum members start theorizing that Froome is only a mediocre hilly ITT rider because he won the hilly ITT in the 2013 Tour by a small margin. Lol.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Froome doesn't even need to drop Contador, just match him in the mountains and beat him in the ITTs.

Froome can't resist in the mountains, since there is nothing written that he beats Contador in the ITTs. They all must go max on the days when there is a chance to make a difference. No saving energy, no calculations.

Not to mention that if the past is anything to go by, Froome needs to take advantage when he's stronger than Contador and Quintana (first two weeks) so that he has a buffer to play with when he's not as strong (last week).

Then again, he faded due to illness last year, whereas in 2013 he had a hunger knock on stage 18 and was overcome by emotion on stage 20 according to him, and he hasn't really faded in any other GTs (with the exception of the last week of Vuelta 2012 when he did Tour-Olympics-Vuelta). Different reasons for fading each time don't necessarily suggest a recurring problem

Yep, I thought about those arguments many times. If we believe that then he really may not be a bad 3rd week rider. Honestly this is the only one reason why I still believe he has the same chance to win TdF as Quintana and Contador. For me its 33-33-33% for all three

The last percent is for Aru

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Froome doesn't even need to drop Contador, just match him in the mountains and beat him in the ITTs.

Froome can't resist in the mountains, since there is nothing written that he beats Contador in the ITTs. They all must go max on the days when there is a chance to make a difference. No saving energy, no calculations.

Not to mention that if the past is anything to go by, Froome needs to take advantage when he's stronger than Contador and Quintana (first two weeks) so that he has a buffer to play with when he's not as strong (last week).

Then again, he faded due to illness last year, whereas in 2013 he had a hunger knock on stage 18 and was overcome by emotion on stage 20 according to him, and he hasn't really faded in any other GTs (with the exception of the last week of Vuelta 2012 when he did Tour-Olympics-Vuelta). Different reasons for fading each time don't necessarily suggest a recurring problem

If it has happened 3 times in the third week then the excuses for it happening are just that, excuses. That is a trend that is more explainable by attributing it to lack of focus or mental weakness as a result of the inability to deal effectively with the inevitable fatigue of the 3 week event.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

If it has happened 3 times in the third week then the excuses for it happening are just that, excuses. That is a trend that is more explainable by attributing it to lack of focus or mental weakness as a result of the inability to deal effectively with the inevitable fatigue of the 3 week event.

Three data points is not enough statistically.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It's 3 data points out of 6.
At the very least there are enough data points to suspect a pattern

 

[Red Rick]

For Froome there's like 4 datapoints max. Tours of 2012,2013 and 2015 the 2014 Vuelta. 2011 and 2012 Vuelta say very little. I the first the mountains were over by stage 16, and in the latter we all know what happened. It's not like Froome raced the Giro + nationals or anything

 

[Gigs_98]

I think the reason for Froome fading in the third week was rather that he purposely peaked for the first mountains and not that he somehow faded in the last week. (I don't trust anyone who says he is ill, allergic, or whatever. These excuses are used absolutely always when a rider is bad and I doubt everyone is always in top shape and the only reason why a rider isnt as strong as someone else is that he has an issue like that). The reason why he was strong in the 3rd week of the Vuelta 2014 was because he was shitty in the first 2 weeks and only in the 3rd on he finally got a good shape, because the preparation was completely different.
This time however I don't think he will peak early because he wants to ride the olympics and I doubt he can win there if he is completely done after the tour. Anyway I don't think any old references of his shape can be used for the tour this year which makes everything completely unpredictable. To return to the topic Alberto Contador, this unpredictability makes it extremely difficult for him and also Quintana. Last year Movistar blew up the race on PSM and then paid for it because they perfectly prepared Froome's attack. Now the question is what they should do in the pyrenees this year. If they attack Froome in the mountains there is the big danger of a counter attack, if Froome has the same shape development like in 2013/15. But if he has his peak in the alps and is weak in the pyrenees they might loose the tour because they don't attack him. Best way to find out is probably to test Froome in the central massif stage and depending on Froome's performance there they can decide what to do on the first weekend.

 

[lenric]

Re:

For Froome there's like 4 datapoints max. Tours of 2012,2013 and 2015 the 2014 Vuelta. 2011 and 2012 Vuelta say very little. I the first the mountains were over by stage 16, and in the latter we all know what happened. It's not like Froome raced the Giro + nationals or anything

2014's Vuelta is useless to make any point, since he didn't prepare himself specifically to that GT, much like Contador. And, as we all know, different physics react differently to the same stimulus.

But if you insist in that GT, the difference between them in the last week was relatively stable, with small fluctuations. In fact, from stage 14 to stage 21 Froome won 3 seconds on him, while recovering from third place to second place (overcoming Valverde).
So, that doesn't suggest that Froome wanes in the last week. At least, 2014's Vuelta can't be used to support that argument.


What I believe is that Froome is a very fragile individual because of his weight. It makes him incredibly susceptible to diseases when is body is strained like in a GT, hence his so called fading in the last week, which is also accompanied (or explained by) a disease.

 

[Publicus]

Re: Re:

For Froome there's like 4 datapoints max. Tours of 2012,2013 and 2015 the 2014 Vuelta. 2011 and 2012 Vuelta say very little. I the first the mountains were over by stage 16, and in the latter we all know what happened. It's not like Froome raced the Giro + nationals or anything

2014's Vuelta is useless to make any point, since he didn't prepare himself specifically to that GT, much like Contador. And, as we all know, different physics react differently to the same stimulus.

But if you insist in that GT, the difference between them in the last week was relatively stable, with small fluctuations. In fact, from stage 14 to stage 21 Froome won 3 seconds on him, while recovering from third place to second place (overcoming Valverde).
So, that doesn't suggest that Froome wanes in the last week. At least, 2014's Vuelta can't be used to support that argument.


What I believe is that Froome is a very fragile individual because of his weight. It makes him incredibly susceptible to diseases when is body is strained like in a GT, hence his so called fading in the last week, which is also accompanied (or explained by) a disease.

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

 

[BlurryVII]

Re: Re:

2013 hilly tt was a sign of fading as well, though he won the tt due to a tactical error from the others.

If thats what fading means, I think Froome will be in for a good July.

That, or he's just not great at hilly tt's. Because honestly, if I see a guy winning by minutes in the mountains, and gaining minutes in a flat tt, I don't expect that he can only just win the hilly tt because he switched his bike.

Take a look at the other riders there. Had that tt been in the first two weeks he'd have smashed it

I can't remember them going up against each other in similar ITT's and I don't buy the argument that Froome is significantly worse than Contador in that discipline.

Vuelta 12' when Froome still had the shape, and Vuelta 14' hilly ITT's, both dominated by Contador.

In Dauphiné 14', Froome was behind Contador in the intermediate at the summit of the climb and then just gained a ridiculous amount on the second flat part.

 

[BlurryVII]

Re: Re:

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

Yep, Contador was just freewheeling in that TT, victory was wrapped up.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

Yep, Contador was just freewheeling in that TT, victory was wrapped up.

and froome was surely fighting tooth and nail on the way to courchevel when contador gained 'a ridiculous amount of time'.

 

[Miburo]

3 more days until i get to see him in yellow. I think Pinot starts before him. If he has the PV legs, he can catch him

 

[roundabout]

Hmm, am I the only one who sees the irony of the Froome 3rd week discussion in thread about a rider who lost time to his immediate GC rivals

in the last 2 GC relevant stages of the 2007 Tour

in the last GC relevant stage of the 2008 Vuelta

in the last GC relevant stage of the 2012 Vuelta

in the last 2 GC relevant stages of the 2015 Giro

and while not losing time to immediate rivals

he struggled on the Monte Pora stage in the 2008 Giro
could only drop Klöden on the queen stage in the 2009 Tour despite wheelsucking before
the less said about the 2010 Tour ITT the better

 

[BlurryVII]

Re: Re:

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

Yep, Contador was just freewheeling in that TT, victory was wrapped up.

and froome was surely fighting tooth and nail on the way to courchevel when contador gained 'a ridiculous amount of time'.

Lol what? Why are you refering to Dauphiné 14 ?

He sure was when he got dropped by AC on that previous climb, Côte de Montagny lol. Don't get your point.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

Yep, Contador was just freewheeling in that TT, victory was wrapped up.

and froome was surely fighting tooth and nail on the way to courchevel when contador gained 'a ridiculous amount of time'.

I'm sure Froome fought all he could that day, mentally and physically. He just had nothing left to give, after being dropped by Alberto on the penultimate climb. Part of the explanation was the physical impact of the crash and part of it was probably due to Froome's lack of mental strength.

 

[BlurryVII]

Re:

Hmm, am I the only one who sees the irony of the Froome 3rd week discussion in thread about a rider who lost time to his immediate GC rivals

in the last 2 GC relevant stages of the 2007 Tour

in the last GC relevant stage of the 2008 Vuelta

in the last GC relevant stage of the 2012 Vuelta

in the last 2 GC relevant stages of the 2015 Giro

and while not losing time to immediate rivals

he struggled on the Monte Pora stage in the 2008 Giro
could only drop Klöden on the queen stage in the 2009 Tour despite wheelsucking before
the less said about the 2010 Tour ITT the better

Froome faded in the last week twice now in what was supposed to be 'his peak' races.

You can take Vuelta 12' and Giro 08' off your examples, since AC was far from being optimally prepared due to various reasons: Wasn't planned to ride Giro and was back from suspension with close to no racing days prior to the Vuelta.

In Tour 09', AC dropped Both Schlecks with ease on La colombère before letting off and looking behind realising Klöden cracked (the Schlecks upped the pace because of his attack).

In 2010, he gained time on Schleck in the ITT, and stuck with him on Tourmalet, don't see where's the 'fading'.

Vuelta 08', he lost a handful of seconds in the last uphill TT to Leipheimer, after winning the MTF on Fuentes de Invierno. That's not called fading 'in the last week'.

You're left with the Giro 15' and Tour 07' but that's not much out of 9 GTs.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

For Froome there's like 4 datapoints max. Tours of 2012,2013 and 2015 the 2014 Vuelta. 2011 and 2012 Vuelta say very little. I the first the mountains were over by stage 16, and in the latter we all know what happened. It's not like Froome raced the Giro + nationals or anything

2014's Vuelta is useless to make any point, since he didn't prepare himself specifically to that GT, much like Contador. And, as we all know, different physics react differently to the same stimulus.

But if you insist in that GT, the difference between them in the last week was relatively stable, with small fluctuations. In fact, from stage 14 to stage 21 Froome won 3 seconds on him, while recovering from third place to second place (overcoming Valverde).
So, that doesn't suggest that Froome wanes in the last week. At least, 2014's Vuelta can't be used to support that argument.


What I believe is that Froome is a very fragile individual because of his weight. It makes him incredibly susceptible to diseases when is body is strained like in a GT, hence his so called fading in the last week, which is also accompanied (or explained by) a disease.

didn't Froome gain time in the final ITT where Contador took it very cautiously (rain) and had the vuelta sewn up? If that's accurate, I don't know that you can place any weight on that fact.

Not really, since Froome also didn't have a reason to gain time, so I figure it's the same for both sides. But even if you want to ignore it, Froome won sort of 10 seconds. If we take out those seconds from the equation, it's still pretty hard to sustain the argument of him fading in the last week of 2014's Vuelta.