I think Nibali was great that year, but according to Bjarn
Bertie dropped Nuclear Froome, not once, but twice, in the last week of the La Vuelta that year. Neither of them started in optimal health after the Tour, but both seemed to peak in the last week. Bjarn claimed Contador would’ve put at minimum 1 minute into Nibali at Planche sea Belle Filles alone. For me, it all depends if he still had his kick. It was gone in his last years, but if he was as good as Bjarn stated, then Vince would’ve blown up trying to follow him. Rasmussen and Schleck are the only two I know that could follow him when he accelerated at his best.
When Bertie dropped Froome in that Vuelta it was a case of Froome had to push the pace, because he needed time, and Bertie had the leader's jersey privilege of sitting on until he felt like it.
Where I think Contador would have won in 2014 was his team. After he crashed, Tinkoff went gangbusters in the mountains, and won 3 stages and the KOM jersey. Rogers and Majka were flying, Roche had probably his best legs of any Tour he did. Sky just collapsed and they had I think 1 more top 10 in a stage the rest of the race. Rogers only finished 3 and 4 places behind Porte and Thomas on GC, without going for GC, and despite losing half an hour on stage 10.