Let’s do a little math. It was reported that there were 1500 pages of documents—at least, there was one report it was a lot more. A typical scientific paper—as submitted, before type-setting—might be around 50 pages. So this is the equivalent of about 30 scientific papers, informationally.
I’ve refereed many scientific papers, and based on my experience, I would say one should allow for at least three days for a complete evaluation. If one is under severe time constraints it might be faster, but one really needs ample time not just for reading and processing everything in the paper, but for thinking about it for a while.
So if we allow 3 days per person for 50 pages, that is 90 man-days to go through 1500 pages. Since WADA made its decision in 24 days (June 4-28), they would need four scientific experts. But this is a minimum estimate, because a) different experts would evaluate different portions of the documents, and some might be assigned far more than others; 2) while one might evaluate each 50 page section on its own, having done so, one has to spend further time integrating the information from one section with that from another section; the further along one progresses, the more time is spent in this integration process; and 3) after all the scientific experts have read and evaluated their material, they have to get together and reach a consensus about an overall evaluation.
Considering all this, I think it’s reasonable to assume that at least 6-10 scientific experts had to be employed full-time for this three and a half week period. How much would that cost? How much would one cost? Something in the range of $50-$100,000? So we’re talking about very roughly half a million to a million dollars? These are extremely rough estimates, and if someone has a better guess, please chime in.
And all this money is just to come to the point where they can drop the case and be done with it. Suppose their experts come to the conclusion that Froome’s case isn’t good enough. They now have to spend considerable time and of course money refuting it. How long will that take? If you think reading 1500 pages is time-consuming, how much more time is spent refuting each major point in precise language? If it might cost as much as $1 million just to drop the case, it will surely cost more than an additional $1 million to refute it.
So if they drop the case, they save a lot of money. They might have to spend a little effort to explain their decision, but they aren’t actually bound by any rules to do so. Of course, many of us expect reasons, and it’s horrible PR not to provide them, but there is nothing in the legal process that requires them to. Certainly there is no motive for them to provide a level of detail remotely approaching what would be found in a typical reasoned decision.
WADA is in fairly dire straits financially (yet another way in which this was the perfect storm for Froome: the USG correction just in time for his case; the leak and the Heuberger paper; and at a time when WADA is stretched for cash). Their research budget has been reduced by almost 80% in the last ten years:
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1062934/wada-seeking-to-reverse-80-per-cent-fall-in-scientific-research-budget
The Russian investigation was extremely expensive, and don’t think the cost didn’t have anything to do with their reluctance to pursue it. Now on top of that, they are faced with huge costs for Froome. To pursue the case, it seems to me, would have cost several million dollars—again, if someone wants to challenge this, go ahead.
Their current budget includes about $10 million in salaries for staff and personnel, and I assume the money to pay scientific experts comes out of this:
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1062934/wada-seeking-to-reverse-80-per-cent-fall-in-scientific-research-budget
I don’t think it’s hard to see that WADA could have come to the conclusion that pursuing the case wasn’t cost effective. What do they gain if they win? A little more respectability, in that a very big fish was caught. But since the decision almost certainly would have been that Froome hadn’t intentionally doped, but just took too many doses, it wouldn’t be that big a deal in terms of WADA’s reputation for catching dopers. And even if they did win, the decision apparently would have come after the Tour, and probably allowed Froome to keep any results for that and the Giro. This would have resulted in considerable negative publicity.
What do they gain by dropping the case? First, they save a lot of money. Second, Froome gets to ride the Tour without any ambiguity. Whether correct or not, I’m sure WADA felt their decision would reduce the tensions at the Tour (note UCI’s “enjoy bike racing” at the end of their statement). And third, since salbutamol is allowed up to a limit, they can rationalize that no sanction is not a big deal anyway, that this wasn’t a case of a doper getting away with taking a banned substance.