Amstel Gold Race: April 21st, 2019

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Who will win the Amstel Gold Race 2019?

  • Alejandro Valverde

    Votes: 4 4.4%
  • Julian Alaphilippe

    Votes: 12 13.3%
  • Mathieu van der Poel

    Votes: 48 53.3%
  • Michael Matthews

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • Michael Valgren

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 4 4.4%
  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 7 7.8%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Tim Wellens

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 11.1%

  • Total voters
    90
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Broccolidwarf said:
DFA123 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Billie said:
Fuglsang sould let the other 2 come back
That would be a brilliant move. Instead of racing for a 100% 2nd place, why not race for a 100% 4th place!
Erm, it's cycle racing tactics 101. It's way easier for a 'weaker' rider to escape from a group of four than from a group of two.

Don’t think Fuglsang is weaker, just less explosive.

If he gets 25 meters on Alaphilippe, it becomes an individual TT, where Fuglsang might be stronger.
Agreed. But it might be easier to make that gap from a group of four. Rather than from a group of two, where Alaphilippe will immediately try to respond to any move.

But then the 3 work together to bring you back.

Two sides to every coin dude :p

Edit: Now Trentin is dropped, I agree with you :D
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Billie said:
Fuglsang sould let the other 2 come back
That would be a brilliant move. Instead of racing for a 100% 2nd place, why not race for a 100% 4th place!
Erm, it's cycle racing tactics 101. It's way easier for a 'weaker' rider to escape from a group of four than from a group of two.
It's especially way easier to be 4th than 2nd, against 3 guys that are lightyears faster. Each of the 3 others know if they go with him, they win. The only way he is going to the finish solo, is if he is stronger. And then it doesn't matter if they are in a group of 2 or 4.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
DFA123 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Billie said:
Fuglsang sould let the other 2 come back
That would be a brilliant move. Instead of racing for a 100% 2nd place, why not race for a 100% 4th place!
Erm, it's cycle racing tactics 101. It's way easier for a 'weaker' rider to escape from a group of four than from a group of two.
It's especially way easier to be 4th than 2nd, against 3 guys that are lightyears faster. Each of the 3 others know if they go with him, they win. The only way he is going to the finish solo, is if he is stronger. And then it doesn't matter if they are in a group of 2 or 4.
Have you watched a cycling race before? From a group of two, the strongest pretty much always wins. From a group of 4, tactics come much more into play.
 
Movitrain said:
Good lord, now even Bala doesn't seem to be his normal self. Movistar could really be in for a terrible season.

To add to this thread, I hope Fuglsang finds a way to take this but I have little hope if he arrives with Ala and/or Trentin.

Valverde could be waiting for the two races coming up instead I think.
 
Re:

Velolover2 said:
This small roads are not much bigger than bicycle paths with riders all over the place. The era of a 50-rider sprint is finally over.

Don't understand Fuglsang strategy here.. Is he really riding for second?
He must be feeling strong and thinking he's got a chance of dropping Alaphilippe.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
DFA123 said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
Billie said:
Fuglsang sould let the other 2 come back
That would be a brilliant move. Instead of racing for a 100% 2nd place, why not race for a 100% 4th place!
Erm, it's cycle racing tactics 101. It's way easier for a 'weaker' rider to escape from a group of four than from a group of two.
It's especially way easier to be 4th than 2nd, against 3 guys that are lightyears faster. Each of the 3 others know if they go with him, they win. The only way he is going to the finish solo, is if he is stronger. And then it doesn't matter if they are in a group of 2 or 4.
Have you watched a cycling race before? From a group of two, the strongest pretty much always wins. From a group of 4, tactics come much more into play.

I have watched many races. Thank you. Have you? Leave the arrogant attitude at the door or *** off.

If he rides with Alaphilippe, he is certain of a 2nd place. If he lets the others come back, he has one chance to place an attack, with ALL OF THEM knowing if they can get in his wheel, they will win. So it comes down to chosing between 95% a second place, and 5% chance of winning. Or a 15% chance of winning and a 85% chance of becoming 4th.
 
Re: Re:

Logic-is-your-friend said:
If he rides with Alaphilippe, he is certain of a 2nd place. If he lets the others come back, he has one chance to place an attack, with ALL OF THEM knowing if they can get in his wheel, they will win. So it comes down to chosing between 95% a second place, and 5% chance of winning. Or a 15% chance of winning and a 85% chance of becoming 4th.
Right, so you agree then. He has better chances of winning from a group of four.