Amstel Gold Race: April 21st, 2019

[Laplaz]

Maximilian Schachmann will win this bike race.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

Looking through PCS, Gilbert had better result(4 wins) than Alaphilippe for this race.

2014 - DNF
2015 - 7th
2016 - 5th
2018 - 7th

I mean.. Gilbert has better results than anybody here. It's Amstel.

But that was before Gilbert focused on the cobbles. While I learned over the last few seasons that you should never underestimate Gilbert, I also think that 2019 Gilbert is not better suited for this race than 2019 Alaphilippe. And that is all that counts. Does not really matter what Phil did in the past since he changed and Alaphilippe matured.

 

[HelloDolly]

Dimension Data had the full podium last year ....surely this must be their big chance

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

Near impossible on both counts: getting into a decisive group at that stage of the race that doesn't include any of the riders you listed as well as the peloton letting both Wellens and Valverde get away just like that. I mean, never say never but the chances are slim to none.

I'm in agreement with near impossible for him and Wellens to get away without the other riders listed. The peloton won't allow it. Even at almost 39 (he turns 39 next week), he's still by far one of the most marked riders in the peloton.

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

Sagan, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Van Der Poel, Wellens, Matthews - field of the season! I hope we'll get a race of the season too. Last year was very good, this year has a potential to be even better.

Hope for an old man to take the win, and if not him, then I would like a young man to take it.

It always has the field of the season. Together with the WC and the Tour.

 

[Bardamu]

Although the last couple of editions were quite thrilling already, I think Mathieu will animate the race even more. His team might not be there in the deep final, but he'll make sure that they've made the race hard in the first 220-230km.

 

[Red Rick]

He might fancy his chances in a bunch sprint, which requires not dropping the other sprinters.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Sagan, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Van Der Poel, Wellens, Matthews - field of the season! I hope we'll get a race of the season too. Last year was very good, this year has a potential to be even better.

Hope for an old man to take the win, and if not him, then I would like a young man to take it.

So... nobody between the age of 25 and 35?

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Sagan, Valverde, Alaphilippe, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Van Der Poel, Wellens, Matthews - field of the season! I hope we'll get a race of the season too. Last year was very good, this year has a potential to be even better.

Hope for an old man to take the win, and if not him, then I would like a young man to take it.

So... nobody between the age of 25 and 35?

I meant specific old and young man, so nobody between 25 and 38

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

No he doesn't. He can win even if some of those are with him, Amstel is a very hilly and demanding race, and he usually sprints very well when the race is like that. Those riders on paper should be faster but stranger things happened...

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

No he doesn't. He can win even if some of those are with him, Amstel is a very hilly and demanding race, and he usually sprints very well when the race is like that. Those riders on paper should be faster but stranger things happened...

Now where was he in the sprint in Sanremo?

Valverde's sprint is dominant when against climbers or uphill, preferably if the uphill drag is at least a few minutes. Amstel doesn't have that. This isn't a pure climber field. He needs to be the smartest to won, and if Sagan rides on Valverde's wheel again it becomes pretty impossible to win.

 

[DFA123]

Are we still pretending that Sagan's sprint at the end of a tough classic is anything for his rivals to worry about?

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

I'd love to see Valverde finally win this one, but this race just doesn't fit him that well. I expect him to be there as always though.

I think it suits him better now than when it all came down to the Cauberg. But he needs to attack and get into a group that doesn't contain any of Sagan, Alaphillipe, Van der Poel or Matthews and yes, that won't be easy. If someone likes Wellens attacks long range though he should jump right onto his wheel.

No he doesn't. He can win even if some of those are with him, Amstel is a very hilly and demanding race, and he usually sprints very well when the race is like that. Those riders on paper should be faster but stranger things happened...

Now where was he in the sprint in Sanremo?

Valverde's sprint is dominant when against climbers or uphill, preferably if the uphill drag is at least a few minutes. Amstel doesn't have that. This isn't a pure climber field. He needs to be the smartest to won, and if Sagan rides on Valverde's wheel again it becomes pretty impossible to win.

Is San Remo a very hilly and demanding race?!

I saw Valverde beating all those guys (well, except Van Der Poel), so it wouldn't be a total shock if he does that again.
Sagan, naturally a faster guy, has a questionable sprint after a hard race, we all saw it many times.
Matthews, also a faster guy, if the race becomes really hard I don't think he'll even be present in the finale.
Alaphilippe, seems like he's found another gear this year, but Valverde beat him quite often in the past so I think it would be no surprise if that happens again.
And Van Der Poel, also a guy with an impressive sprint after a hard race, but let's see first how he handles those 30 hills.

So, he certainly won't be a favorite in that sprint, especially if all these are present, but I wouldn't find it totally unbelievable if he somehow wins it.

 

[search]

with van der Poel in the race, there will be no sprint anyway. Pretty sure the selection will be made with ~40k to go.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Are we still pretending that Sagan's sprint at the end of a tough classic is anything for his rivals to worry about?

Are we pretending that just because Sagan wouldn't be the favorite, everyone and their mother wants to sprint vs Sagan?

 

[markene2]

Enrico Gasparotto will win this bike race

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Enrico Gasparotto will win this bike race

Next year, he only wins in Olympic years.

 

[Flamin]

Big difference with de Ronde is that MVDP is now the number one favourite. And Amstel has also been a more open race in the last years. That makes it much more difficult to handle. If he wins, then I'll be just... yeah, completely speechless.

Btw, I hope Alaphilippe is back in top shape as I don't think he was fully recovered yesterday yet.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Looking through PCS, Gilbert had better result(4 wins) than Alaphilippe for this race.

2014 - DNF
2015 - 7th
2016 - 5th
2018 - 7th

OH you're telling us the king of the Amstel Gold Race had better results here than Alaphilippe, well what a surprise :razz:

 

[Koronin]

I do agree that MvdP being in this race is going to change the dynamics of it and should create the final selection earlier than usual.

 

[Salvarani]

I wonder what WVA can do in this race.

Pogacar too.

 

[armchairclimber]

I am fantasising about seeing MVDP, Van Aert and Schachmann trying to power ride each other off the wheel.

 

[Velolover2]

What about Oliver Naesen with his improved climbing ability and sprint?

He might be lacking a bit of endurance this year compared to the last seasons but he is more explosive than earlier. A reverse Gilbert.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I expect a strong showing by Mohoric, the Astana team is also looking scary strong. Fraile, Birdsong, Gorka and Ion, Lutsenko and Lulu, that's a ton of firepower.

 

[proffate]

It's going to be hard for mvdp as the most marked man and without any team support.