Amstel Gold Race: April 21st, 2019

[jaylew]

That's a little harsh. Sure, Amstel is a higher level of competition but his team was really good on Wednesday.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

That's a little harsh. Sure, Amstel is a higher level of competition but his team was really good on Wednesday.

Surely they did well as for a PCT team but many WT teams were missing and other did not bring their strongest rosters like Deceunick was without GIlbert and EF without Woods and UAE will be on a whole different level with Henao, Pogacar and Ulissi.

It will be a surprise if MVdP has a team-mate left at the time when the strongest teams still have 3 or 4 riders in the group. Thus I can see him losing the race even when he is the strongest. Especially now, when he appears to be so strong that other teams might know that they need to try to use their numbers in order to beat him.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

This race has been great since the redesign of the route. And what a field. Can't wait!

My favorites:

***** Van der Poel, Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Matthews, Schachmann
*** Valverde, Gilbert, Wellens, Kwiatkowski
** Lutsenko, Gasparotto, Fuglsang, Bettiol
* Van Avermaet, Kreuziger, , I. Izagirre, Valgren, Van Aert, Woods, Pogacar, Madouas, Lambrecht

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This race has been great since the redesign of the route. And what a field. Can't wait!

My favorites:

***** Van der Poel, Alaphilippe
**** Sagan, Matthews, Schachmann
*** Valverde, Gilbert, Wellens, Kwiatkowski
** Lutsenko, Gasparotto, Fuglsang, Bettiol
* Van Avermaet, Kreuziger, , I. Izagirre, Valgren, Van Aert, Woods, Pogacar, Madouas, Lambrecht

Pretty much agree. I'd give Matthews and Schachmann 3 stars probably, Fuglsang probably too.

Outsiders always have a chance in this one.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

 

[Robert5091]

Astana's team looks like their Giro squad - Vino's getting the big guns out.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The steep climbs are between 40K and 19K before the finish, so whoever wants to get rid of the sprinters has to attack there. A longer final might benefit Astana. They have a strong team of climbers, but although they've won last year with Valgren no one in their line-up has won a classic.

Gilbert always won with the Cauberg close to the finish, but it's not as if he can't handle a long final. Still Alaphilippe seems more likely as the leader for the hilly classics.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

Yes. For a long time I thought it was somewhat off that AGR gets lumped together with Fleche and Liege so much, I've always felt Brabantse Pijl and AGR were more of a bridge between the cobbles and the ardennes.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

Yes. For a long time I thought it was somewhat off that AGR gets lumped together with Fleche and Liege so much, I've always felt Brabantse Pijl and AGR were more of a bridge between the cobbles and the ardennes.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

Yes. For a long time I thought it was somewhat off that AGR gets lumped together with Fleche and Liege so much, I've always felt Brabantse Pijl and AGR were more of a bridge between the cobbles and the ardennes.

It's probably a cobbles versus no-cobbles reason. Also, with the finish at the top of Cauberg, punchiness was the deciding factor, and hard-man's racing qualities didn't get you anywhere.

With the route change, I really think that this race is the true sixth monument. It's on an April Sunday, it's run over 265 kilometres, it has a stronger field than almost every other monument and only loses out to the Tour and the Worlds on start list quality*, and it's by far the biggest race in one of the most important cycling countries in the world. And now it has become a really good race as well.

It lacks the age but it has still been around for all of our lives (supposedly).

*My reference for this is PCS: https://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/races/races-ranked-by-startlist-quality

 

[Flamin]

Re:

Incredible start list indeed. The route change did absolute wonders.

Gilbert always won with the Cauberg close to the finish, but it's not as if he can't handle a long final. Still Alaphilippe seems more likely as the leader for the hilly classics.

You forgot 2017

 

[Velolover2]

Gilbert is not explosive enough to win a HTF anymore even if they went back to the Cauberg finish (heaven forbid)..

What he can do is attacking from far, far out. I'm thinking pre-Kruisberg because he has to attack before a rider like MVDP is opening the race.

Having a super strong rider up front would also put less pressure on Alaphilippe.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Incredible start list indeed. The route change did absolute wonders.

Gilbert always won with the Cauberg close to the finish, but it's not as if he can't handle a long final. Still Alaphilippe seems more likely as the leader for the hilly classics.

You forgot 2017

I just rewatched the finish and of course you're right.

 

[DFA123]

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

 

[Flamin]

Re:

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

He just looked too far off form in Ronde and Roubaix to suddenly win here.

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

I think it almost always has an amazing field, prob the best of the year.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

He just looked too far off form in Ronde and Roubaix to suddenly win here.

I thought the opposite. That his form looked decent, but he made tactical errors and missed the decisive moves. In Roubaix he looked the strongest of the peloton on the cobbled sectors, and his form in E3 was also incredibly strong.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

He just looked too far off form in Ronde and Roubaix to suddenly win here.

I thought the opposite. That his form looked decent, but he made tactical errors and missed the decisive moves. In Roubaix he looked the strongest of the peloton on the cobbled sectors, and his form in E3 was also incredibly strong.

I don't believe Roubaix was a tactical error. Very dangerous riders like Gilbert and Politt were already up the road when first Van Aert goes, then five/ten seconds later Sagan decides to bridge, then Vanmarcke. That's literally 3 times when all alarm bells were ringing and he didn't do anything. That means you're simply not good enough imo.

He did hit the front a couple of times afterwards but iirc he didn't really make a new selection or anything.

Agreed that he looked pretty strong this year. Valencia were he beat Trentin easily in an uphill sprint, Omloop, E3,... But he hasn't improved since then.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

He just looked too far off form in Ronde and Roubaix to suddenly win here.

I thought the opposite. That his form looked decent, but he made tactical errors and missed the decisive moves. In Roubaix he looked the strongest of the peloton on the cobbled sectors, and his form in E3 was also incredibly strong.

I don't believe Roubaix was a tactical error. Very dangerous riders like Gilbert and Politt were already up the road when first Van Aert goes, then five/ten seconds later Sagan decides to bridge, then Vanmarcke. That's literally 3 times when all alarm bells were ringing and he didn't do anything. That means you're simply not good enough imo.

He did hit the front a couple of times afterwards but iirc he didn't really make a new selection or anything.

Agreed that he looked pretty strong this year. Valencia were he beat Trentin easily in an uphill sprint, Omloop, E3,... But he hasn't improved since then.

He was also drifting down in the group when on the cobbles in that period of the race. He was often almost at the back. He wouldn't have done that if he really had felt as well as he claims.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

It lacks the age but it has still been around for all of our lives (supposedly).

Speak for yourself, young whipper-snapper.

 

[Bardamu]

Re: Re:

I'd bump Matthews in favor of Valverde or maybe Kwito, but other than that, it looks great.

I can't remember I have seen such a strong field in Amstel. Its pretty incredible. Its also interesting to see that all of the top favorites, apart from Alaphilippe, has done well in Flanders or some other of the flemish classics. And Im pure hed do pretty well if he decided to race them.

Yes. For a long time I thought it was somewhat off that AGR gets lumped together with Fleche and Liege so much, I've always felt Brabantse Pijl and AGR were more of a bridge between the cobbles and the ardennes.

It's probably a cobbles versus no-cobbles reason. Also, with the finish at the top of Cauberg, punchiness was the deciding factor, and hard-man's racing qualities didn't get you anywhere.

With the route change, I really think that this race is the true sixth monument. It's on an April Sunday, it's run over 265 kilometres, it has a stronger field than almost every other monument and only loses out to the Tour and the Worlds on start list quality*, and it's by far the biggest race in one of the most important cycling countries in the world. And now it has become a really good race as well.

It lacks the age but it has still been around for all of our lives (supposedly).

*My reference for this is PCS: https://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/races/races-ranked-by-startlist-quality

I agree and it has been for a while. Even in the "boring" years it was considered one of the most important races on the calendar.

 

[Red Rick]

I honestly find the name too corny to ever consider it a monument

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

I think Van Avermaet could end up saving his season here. The new finish is good for him - a sprint coming shortly after a very hard effort - and the motivation will be very strong having failed to pick up a win on the cobbles.

He just looked too far off form in Ronde and Roubaix to suddenly win here.

I thought the opposite. That his form looked decent, but he made tactical errors and missed the decisive moves. In Roubaix he looked the strongest of the peloton on the cobbled sectors, and his form in E3 was also incredibly strong.

I don't believe Roubaix was a tactical error. Very dangerous riders like Gilbert and Politt were already up the road when first Van Aert goes, then five/ten seconds later Sagan decides to bridge, then Vanmarcke. That's literally 3 times when all alarm bells were ringing and he didn't do anything. That means you're simply not good enough imo.

He did hit the front a couple of times afterwards but iirc he didn't really make a new selection or anything.

Agreed that he looked pretty strong this year. Valencia were he beat Trentin easily in an uphill sprint, Omloop, E3,... But he hasn't improved since then.

He was also drifting down in the group when on the cobbles in that period of the race. He was often almost at the back. He wouldn't have done that if he really had felt as well as he claims.

It's not all that obvious. For example Vanmarcke and Langeveld were dropped a couple of times in the first 150kms from a big group. I didn't see them inside top50 positions in the peloton even once before Arenberg or somewhere around that point of the race, yet they both managed to finish inside top10. If someone decided to push the front group early when there were splits, then they would'nt have managed to come back and finish even inside top30. But in the end they were among the strongest riders in the race.
These races can be very dynamic and it's really hard to be in the right place 100% of the time, no matter how good your legs are.
I think Greg is obviously not as strong as 2017 but not that far off. With some luck, he could potentially win here.

 

[yaco]

Fact is GVA has watched on as Sagan attacked in the last 2 editions of PR - GVA didn't have the legs.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Fact is GVA has watched on as Sagan attacked in the last 2 editions of PR - GVA didn't have the legs.

We simply don't know if GVA didn't follow for tactical or positional reasons in PR and RVV, or because he didn't have the legs. Trying to pretend otherwise is BS. If he had been dropped from the main chasing group, we could say, but he wasn't - he finished with the lead chasers in each race.

On the other hand we know that he had great legs in E3; which was only three weeks ago.