Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Unchained]

Yeah sure, but I meant his entourage and the people influencing those decisions.

I go with collective optimism. I believe the riders, their family and friends are all intelligent, thinking people. I believe now more than ever people are hyper aware of things that were unknown, even let's say @5 years ago.
I have hope that riders are making intelligent decisions and if something goes wrong it originated with good intentions. I think with technology riders are less isolated, using apps like WhatsApp, FaceTime, ect, riders have additional ways to reach out for connection and advice. Some of the older stories about riders not asking questions about anything, including mystery "treatments" are mostly a thing of the past.In my opinion current rider know a million times more about the inner working of the team than ever before.

 

[hayneplane]

Kid has just got the IT factor. Can climb very well, has punch, can TT more than competently and has already shown 1 day racing aptitude.

Pretty tidy to get his first pro win against a top 5 entirely comprised of riders with top 5 Grand Tour finishes other than himself.

 

[Berniece]

He’s doing a lot of single day races, looking forward to his Strade performance

 

[mikks]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

 

[Tonton]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

Hilarious post. I imagine that AI would give a rider with Hinault's record at age 20 a 1% chance to win a Tour...and by the way, Remco is not done. I would not give up on him. Simply put, I'd rather trust my eyes than AI.

Overhyped? Meh. You are new on this forum: trust me, the Betancur thread would have driven you crazy .

Of course we can't predict the future. Neither can AI.

First race of the season and Paul nailed two big names. He passed on his first pro win last year, giving the bouquet to a team mate. That's how confident he is. What impresses me most is that he handles the media super well.

It's too early to know how good he will be, but Paul Seixas already is the best French rider in the peloton today. That's not small feat. He can climb and he can TT. And sprint. Why not be ecstatic and hopeful?

Big win today. Allez Paul!

 

[Alien Performance]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

Sexias is already way above the level of a top junior super talent, just look at worlds last year. You only got that answer based on the way you frame the question, frame it differently and you will get a much higher %

 

[repre]

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro)

Stopped reading it from there. But thx for trying.

 

[Cycling111]

OMG. Some of the press and social media are already saying that he'll win the Tour at 20 because he won in Foia a year younger than Pogacar.

Age comparisons are purely anecdotal.

I remember that Ayuso was supposed to win the Tour at 20 because he was on the podium at the Vuelta at 19, a year younger...

Furthermore, those theories leave Vingegaard out of the equation, as he was still a domestique until he was 24. He wouldn't have won a Tour according to them.

Pogacar, for example, months before Foia, in 2018, he was on a low-level amateur team. Seixas reminds me of Ayuso, very professional from a young age, even more so since he's been on a team like Decathlon for several years.
We already saw that Ayuso's first Tour victory came before he was 20... . And yet, Vingegaard, who at 22 finished the Tour l'Avenir 40 minutes behind , is the one who has won two Tours.

With those calculations, for example, Vingegaard's record wouldn't exist, and Ayuso would be about to win his fourth Tour, and he doesn't even have a GT, while Hindley does; another guy like Vingegaard who wouldn't have anything whit this calculations. And Roglic? 😅

Yesterday it was Del Toro who was going to win the next five Tours, today it's Seixas, and they've forgotten about February Remco and his step forward.
We've seen what happened with Ayuso for making his believe that at 22 he should be winning his third Tour.

While they're doing age calculations, there's a Dane out there working as a domestique who will beat Seixas in the Tour in 4 years 😅 .