Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Unchained]

Yeah sure, but I meant his entourage and the people influencing those decisions.

I go with collective optimism. I believe the riders, their family and friends are all intelligent, thinking people. I believe now more than ever people are hyper aware of things that were unknown, even let's say @5 years ago.
I have hope that riders are making intelligent decisions and if something goes wrong it originated with good intentions. I think with technology riders are less isolated, using apps like WhatsApp, FaceTime, ect, riders have additional ways to reach out for connection and advice. Some of the older stories about riders not asking questions about anything, including mystery "treatments" are mostly a thing of the past.In my opinion current rider know a million times more about the inner working of the team than ever before.

 

[hayneplane]

Kid has just got the IT factor. Can climb very well, has punch, can TT more than competently and has already shown 1 day racing aptitude.

Pretty tidy to get his first pro win against a top 5 entirely comprised of riders with top 5 Grand Tour finishes other than himself.

 

[Berniece]

He’s doing a lot of single day races, looking forward to his Strade performance

 

[mikks]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

 

[Tonton]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

Hilarious post. I imagine that AI would give a rider with Hinault's record at age 20 a 1% chance to win a Tour...and by the way, Remco is not done. I would not give up on him. Simply put, I'd rather trust my eyes than AI.

Overhyped? Meh. You are new on this forum: trust me, the Betancur thread would have driven you crazy .

Of course we can't predict the future. Neither can AI.

First race of the season and Paul nailed two big names. He passed on his first pro win last year, giving the bouquet to a team mate. That's how confident he is. What impresses me most is that he handles the media super well.

It's too early to know how good he will be, but Paul Seixas already is the best French rider in the peloton today. That's not small feat. He can climb and he can TT. And sprint. Why not be ecstatic and hopeful?

Big win today. Allez Paul!

 

[Alien Performance]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

Sexias is already way above the level of a top junior super talent, just look at worlds last year. You only got that answer based on the way you frame the question, frame it differently and you will get a much higher %

 

[repre]

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro)

Stopped reading it from there. But thx for trying.

 

[Cycling111]

OMG. Some of the press and social media are already saying that he'll win the Tour at 20 because he won in Foia a year younger than Pogacar.

Age comparisons are purely anecdotal.

I remember that Ayuso was supposed to win the Tour at 20 because he was on the podium at the Vuelta at 19, a year younger...

Furthermore, those theories leave Vingegaard out of the equation, as he was still a domestique until he was 24. He wouldn't have won a Tour according to them.

Pogacar, for example, months before Foia, in 2018, he was on a low-level amateur team. Seixas reminds me of Ayuso, very professional from a young age, even more so since he's been on a team like Decathlon for several years.
We already saw that Ayuso's first Tour victory came before he was 20... . And yet, Vingegaard, who at 22 finished the Tour l'Avenir 40 minutes behind , is the one who has won two Tours.

With those calculations, for example, Vingegaard's record wouldn't exist, and Ayuso would be about to win his fourth Tour, and he doesn't even have a GT, while Hindley does; another guy like Vingegaard who wouldn't have anything whit this calculations. And Roglic? 😅

Yesterday it was Del Toro who was going to win the next five Tours, today it's Seixas, and they've forgotten about February Remco and his step forward.
We've seen what happened with Ayuso for making his believe that at 22 he should be winning his third Tour.

While they're doing age calculations, there's a Dane out there working as a domestique who will beat Seixas in the Tour in 4 years 😅 .

 

[pastronef]

While they're doing age calculations, there's a Dane out there working as a domestique who will beat Seixas in the Tour in 4 years 😅 .

who?

 

[Pozzovivo]

who?

Some random guy currently cutting up fish nn a factory.

 

[mikks]

Hilarious post. I imagine that AI would give a rider with Hinault's record at age 20 a 1% chance to win a Tour...and by the way, Remco is not done. I would not give up on him. Simply put, I'd rather trust my eyes than AI.

Overhyped? Meh. You are new on this forum: trust me, the Betancur thread would have driven you crazy .

Actually, I’ve been reading this forum almost from the beginning—I just had to make a new account recently. So I remember a lot. I remember the kinds of predictions people who “trusted their own eyes” made about Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks, Evenepoel, Quintana, and countless other riders.

But in reality, stuff happen. Injuries and illnesses, or crashes or whatever (who would have thought that Uijtdebroeks would turn out to be emotionally fragile and end up changing teams every time when small obstacle appears). Development can stall or go in a different direction. Riders who were predicted to become future Tour winners instead become elite stage hunters or one-day racers. Sometimes another rider emerges unexpectedly or makes a huge developmental leap, and the whole hierarchy changes.

I’m not dissing Paul Seixas. He clearly has a lot of talent, and he will probably become a very good rider with many important wins. But to make precise predictions and talk about him as if becoming a future Tour winner—or multiple Tour winner—is a certainty, is just hot air.

 

[Pozzovivo]

Actually, I’ve been reading this forum almost from the beginning—I just had to make a new account recently. So I remember a lot. I remember the kinds of predictions people who “trusted their own eyes” made about Ayuso, Uijtdebroeks, Evenepoel, Quintana, and countless other riders.

But in reality, stuff happen. Injuries and illnesses, or crashes or whatever (who would have thought that Uijtdebroeks would turn out to be emotionally fragile and end up changing teams every time when small obstacle appears). Development can stall or go in a different direction. Riders who were predicted to become future Tour winners instead become elite stage hunters or one-day racers. Sometimes another rider emerges unexpectedly or makes a huge developmental leap, and the whole hierarchy changes.

I’m not dissing Paul Seixas. He clearly has a lot of talent, and he will probably become a very good rider with many important wins. But to make precise predictions and talk about him as if becoming a future Tour winner—or multiple Tour winner—is a certainty, is just hot air.

This is exactly right.

One of the key problems here is also trying to predict a singular rare event instead of multiple reasonably similar outcomes, which will have some underlying chance of happening and also not happening. It is entirely conceivable that Quintana could have won a tour or even multiple if random things had happened differently, but in this iterations of events it didn't happen. We don't really know who is right and wrong based on the eventual outcomes. For instance, team sky tried to get rid of Chris Froome right before his vuelta breakthrough - and several teams turned him down! If he had been shipped to a worse team he might have been beatable for many of those tours. Chances and sliding doors.

We should be more tetlockian about these things. Be specific and quantify the probabilities we are suggesting - then we can go back over a time and see how close our predictions are. I'd say that there is a 10-30% chance that Seixas wins the tour. With time, that range should decrease, but it may move in either direction, as we observe him more.

 

[mikks]

This is exactly right.

One of the key problems here is also trying to predict a singular rare event instead of multiple reasonably similar outcomes, which will have some underlying chance of happening and also not happening. It is entirely conceivable that Quintana could have won a tour or even multiple if random things had happened differently, but in this iterations of events it didn't happen. We don't really know who is right and wrong based on the eventual outcomes. For instance, team sky tried to get rid of Chris Froome right before his vuelta breakthrough - and several teams turned him down! If he had been shipped to a worse team he might have been beatable for many of those tours. Chances and sliding doors.

We should be more tetlockian about these things. Be specific and quantify the probabilities we are suggesting - then we can go back over a time and see how close our predictions are. I'd say that there is a 10-30% chance that Seixas wins the tour. With time, that range should decrease, but it may move in either direction, as we observe him more.

I see I’m not the only one who has read Tetlock. Here is a thread comparing Bernal, Pogačar and Evenepoel, created in 2020. I recently re-read it, and it’s interesting that most posters were right in a broad sense—they all recognized the talent and predicted a strong future—but nobody was accurate when it came to predicting the specific career trajectories of these three.

 

[Pozzovivo]

I see I’m not the only one who has read Tetlock. Here is a thread comparing Bernal, Pogačar and Evenepoel, created in 2019. I recently re-read it, and it’s interesting that most posters were right in a broad sense—they all recognized the talent and predicted a strong future—but nobody was accurate when it came to predicting the specific career trajectories of these three.

Big hero of mine, Tetlock. Followed his research for decades. Always enjoyed the general approach to prediction and thinking about the future. Did you forget to include a link in your last post?

 

[Pozzovivo]

Also, I strongly favor anchoring judgement in the observables right now. As such, yesterday was a big step for Seixas as he beat two of the top podium contenders for most GT's. He probably is at that level right now. GT podium contender level.

Edit: On unibet, Seixas is ranked as 7th favorite for the TDF this year with an implied probability of 3%.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Another GC-worthy ride in the TT.

 

[memyselfandI]

It was crazy good tt. Still he's over hyped atm, no gt's done yet. He's delivering but it's February for starters. And it's absolutely crazy to draw any numbers what chances he's got say in the Tour for example. Let's hope for longevity he's not doing it this year. Opinion.

 

[Cycling111]

Also, I strongly favor anchoring judgement in the observables right now. As such, yesterday was a big step for Seixas as he beat two of the top podium contenders for most GT's. He probably is at that level right now. GT podium contender level.

Edit: On unibet, Seixas is ranked as 7th favorite for the TDF this year with an implied probability of 3%.

To know that, he would have had to face Almeida in a GT , not here. We can't draw that conclusion from this race .
The same goes for Del Toro; if he wins the UAE Tour, it says absolutely nothing about his Tour de France aspirations.

The most obvious example is Ayuso, who has won several one-week races before the GT in which he has struggled.

 

[AlfaLum]

It was crazy good tt. Still he's over hyped atm, no gt's done yet. He's delivering but it's February for starters. And it's absolutely crazy to draw any numbers what chances he's got say in the Tour for example. Let's hope for longevity he's not doing it this year. Opinion.

You cannot overhype a guy like this. He is simply one of the best talents in cycling at the moment, if not the best.

You can debate whether it makes sense to make predictions on what that will lead to. Because nobody knows if his trajectory will lead to becoming the best in the world or something one-two levels below that.

But you cannot overhype a rider like this, and saying talents like this are overhyped is overhyped.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

OMG. Some of the press and social media are already saying that he'll win the Tour at 20 because he won in Foia a year younger than Pogacar.

Young Teddy had an unfair advantage during his first Tour: he didn't have to face peak Pogacar while Seixas has to. Luck Merchant strikes again.

 

[Netserk]

Young Teddy had an unfair advantage during his first Tour: he didn't have to face peak Pogacar while Seixas has to. Luck Merchant strikes again.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Young Teddy had an unfair advantage during his first Tour: he didn't have to face peak Pogacar while Seixas has to. Luck Merchant strikes again.

I see they've included a fair few mountain sprints in the race too, clearly favouring the Slovene.

 

[ice&fire]

Admins, please update the thread title. For sure we won't have to wait 5 years to see him winning the Tour

 

[Red Rick]

I will slightly reserve judgment as it's February and can happen that riders do great early in the season and then don't keep up the great results later.

But this isn't terrible.

 

[Pozzovivo]

To know that, he would have had to face Almeida in a GT , not here. We can't draw that conclusion from this race .
The same goes for Del Toro; if he wins the UAE Tour, it says absolutely nothing about his Tour de France aspirations.

The most obvious example is Ayuso, who has won several week-long races before the GT in which he has struggled.

I don't draw any conclusions firmly and I don't claim to know anything. I'm saying, rather, that imo he's probably a rider of the level able to compete for GT podiums. That my judgement based on what I see. Waiting until the results are in (when he faces almeida and ayuso in a GT) defeats the whole purpose of making predictions about how he will fare against them in a GT...

I think it is reasonable to make predictions based on the level of competition he beats. It probably the best data one can get to make predictions on. Beating Ayuso, Almeida, Lipowitz, Onley, and all the rest is pretty significant. The field is super strong in Algarve.

I agree with your point that this race is only one observation and extrapolating solely from that would be careless. I don't intend to do so either. He was already very very good last year against strong GC riders both in one days and Dauphine. His level is clearly very high.