The CAS decision to out Contador until after this years TDF gives many riders a realistic chance to win the race. But this might mean that the Tour is overloaded with GC riders at the expense of the Giro. Which serious riders are going to ride the Giro this year?
Basso.
Rujano.
Gadret? And if so is he likely to repeat last years strong performance?
Scarponi, or will he now give himself a chance of winning the Tour in the absence of Contador?
Nibali? No, he will focus on TDF.
Frank Schleck? No, he will believe that he has a slight chance to win with AC out (though I don’t believe he does), and will also be having dreams of a 1-2 with Andy.
Evans, Menchov, Sanchez, Wiggins, Froome, Cobo, Leipheimer, Valverdje, Rolland, Gesink, VDB will all ride the Tour.
Could be a fairly wide open Giro.
I feel that Kloden will be forced to ride as a domestique for Andy in France, and so despite that parcours suiting him, I’d be happy to see him suit up in Italy. It’s unlikely that he can climb with Scarponi/Basso/Rujano, but I doubt there will be any really strong teams there (Nibali will be spared some support for July), and without a great GC field it’s less likely that high mountain stages will be torn up on penultimate climbs. Therefore a guy like Kloden may be able to limit his losses reasonably well.
If he is in good form of course.
His team may well be the best of the GC contenders in the TTT, which at over 30kms could see some significant time gaps (I’d be hopeful of JB sending Fabian to the Giro, if only for the first week). Fulgsang is already guaranteed to ride it and he hopes to contend also. RSNT is a big squad, so they can form a strong team, even with a lesser team than what they send to the Tour.
Kloden would have to change his season’s plans from last years if he is to ride the Giro. There will be no defending of his Tour of the Basque country. But he can still try to win Paris-Nice in March, which has a great parcours for him. So a peak there, then a quiet period before gradually building back up for May, perhaps with racing at Romandie, but because he wants to be peaking for week three, he would not want to be winning their like he did in ’08.
And he could still go in the TDF later on purely as a domestique.