This is a good thread to start up.
I think it is possible for the Schlecks to do a 1-2 in the TDF, though I don't wish that to happen as the racing might be a little boring. I think Frankie is a little underated. I think he is one of the best GC/GT climbers in the world (top 5). How else could he be a strong podium contender in the '08 and '09 Tours when he was horrible in the time trials? We don't know how Frank would have gone last year, and the Vuelta was an afterthought, seeing as his season had been geared around July.
Take the Queen stage of the '09 Tour to explain Frank's climbing ability, and how the brothers can work as a team. They distanced everyone bar AC (who may not compete this July)......and they did all the work - except for AC getting rid of Klodi
Come July AS is probably the favourite. Then you have a group of Basso, Gessink and Evans, and possibly Sami and Frank are in that same conversation.
Even if AC rides I can't see him winning the TDF if he rides all of the Giro before it.